Buffalo at Miami (OH)
Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
Buffalo@
Miami (OH)
Miami (OH) -6.5 · O/U 45.5
BuffaloTuesday 2026-11-03
8:00pm
69°F · wind 13 mph · 💧 4%
Miami (OH)ByeLast weekBye
@ Ball StateNext weekvs Ohio
63OFF plays last game70
64DEF plays last game61
Miles flown, last 21 days
392 mi18th30th561 mi
Exclude Buffalo weeks
Exclude Miami (OH) weeks
Stats from games played through week 9
EPA rank · adjusted
101stOffense96th
97thDefense87th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+6.5 Buffalo vs Miami (OH) −6.5
vs Miami (OH) −6.5run blocking117th11thrun DEF up front
run OFF116th39thrun DEF
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-138, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 22 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. FBS teams with 3+ FBS games; garbage time excluded (play counts excepted). Data: CollegeFootballData.com.
+6.5 Buffalo vs Miami (OH) −6.5
vs Miami (OH) −6.5Buffalo OFF vs Miami (OH) DEF
big-play OFF63rd104thbig-play DEF
standard-down OFF116th62ndstandard-down DEF
runs not stuffed53rd26thstuffing runs
passing-down OFF132nd106thpassing-down DEF
pass OFF128th112thpass DEF
Buffalo DEF vs Miami (OH) OFF
passing-down DEF23rd83rdpassing-down OFF
stuffing runs123rd79thruns not stuffed
big-play DEF43rd3rdbig-play OFF
run DEF up front105th79thrun blocking
pass DEF108th112thpass OFF
run DEF72nd89thrun OFF
standard-down DEF121st125thstandard-down OFF
Pace & tendencies
70.729thPlays per game131st59.9
48%98thPass rate66th52%
67.862ndPlays faced per game66th67.1
Miami (OH)
home
2 ATS trends · 1 🔥
Miami (OH)-6.5
ATSfadeFading Lembo in primetime
76.2%
win rate
16-5
record
+45.5%
roi
+5.5ppg
avg cover
🔥
WWWWWWWLWWWLWWLLLWWW
last 20: 15-5 (75.0%) · avg cover +5.5 ppg
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg cover +1.9 ppg
since 2013: 16-5 (76.2%) · avg cover +5.5 ppg
Miami (OH)-6.5
ATSMartin as a home fav of more than 3 points, off a win
72.2%
win rate
13-5
record
+37.9%
roi
+4.2ppg
avg cover
📈
LLWWWLWWWWWWWLWWLW
last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg cover +5.8 ppg
since 2013: 13-5 (72.2%) · avg cover +4.2 ppg
Over / Under
3 trends
Under 45.5
Under
Chuck Martin as a home fav, off a win, in primetime
90.0%
win rate
9-1-1
record
+71.8%
roi
+7.3ppg
avg under
🔥
WPLWWWWWWWW
last 10: 8-1-1 (88.9%) · avg under +7.0 ppg
since 2013: 9-1-1 (90.0%) · avg under +7.3 ppg
Under 45.5
Under
Late in the season, in wind of 11+ mph
55.6%
win rate
199-159-6
record
+6.1%
roi
+0.2ppg
avg under
📈
LWLWWLWLLWWLWLLLWLWW
last 20: 10-10 (50.0%) · avg under -1.0 ppg
last 10: 5-5 (50.0%) · avg under +0.6 ppg
since 2013: 199-159-6 (55.6%) · avg under +0.2 ppg
Over 45.5
Over
Pete Lembo on the road
66.7%
win rate
10-5
record
+27.3%
roi
+0.0ppg
avg over
📈
LLWWWWWLWWLWWWL
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg over +2.5 ppg
since 2013: 10-5 (66.7%) · avg over +0.0 ppg
- Yager Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
Run your own query on this matchup
Every other game this week: Week 10 2026 trends.
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Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the
closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at
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