Duke at NC State
Duke@
NC State
Duke -6 · O/U 50.5
DukeSaturday 2026-11-07
12:30pm
69°F · wind 10 mph · 💧 9%
NC StateW 47-2 vs Boston CollegeLast weekW 31-10 vs California
@ MiamiNext weekvs Syracuse
67OFF plays last game64
61DEF plays last game75
Miles flown, last 21 days
304 mi11th123rd4,781 mi
Exclude Duke weeks
Exclude NC State weeks
EPA rank · adjusted
44thOffense64th
26thDefense112th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
−6 Duke vs NC State +6
vs NC State +6travel304 mi, 21 days11th123rdtravel4,781 mi, 21 days
big-play DEF5th105thbig-play OFF
big-play OFF25th109thbig-play DEF
run DEF34th118thrun OFF
run DEF up front39th113thrun blocking
pass OFF46th117thpass DEF
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-138, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 22 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. FBS teams with 3+ FBS games; garbage time excluded (play counts excepted). Data: CollegeFootballData.com.
−6 Duke vs NC State +6
vs NC State +6Duke OFF vs NC State DEF
passing-down OFF44th104thpassing-down DEF
runs not stuffed101st46thstuffing runs
run blocking114th89thrun DEF up front
run OFF112th94thrun DEF
standard-down OFF87th95thstandard-down DEF
Duke DEF vs NC State OFF
stuffing runs58th81struns not stuffed
pass DEF59th27thpass OFF
standard-down DEF78th80thstandard-down OFF
passing-down DEF4th26thpassing-down OFF
Pace & tendencies
67.961stPlays per game42nd69.9
49%94thPass rate72nd51%
64.0105thPlays faced per game79th66.3
Duke
away
3 ATS trends
Duke-6
ATSfadeFading Doeren as a dog of more than 3 points, off a win
64.3%
win rate
18-10
record
+22.7%
roi
+2.8ppg
avg cover
📈
LWWWWWLWLWWWLWWWWWLW
last 20: 15-5 (75.0%) · avg cover +6.6 ppg
last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg cover +8.8 ppg
since 2013: 18-10 (64.3%) · avg cover +2.8 ppg
Duke-6
ATSDiaz on the road
63.0%
win rate
17-10-1
record
+20.2%
roi
+3.9ppg
avg cover
📈
WWWWLWWPLWWLWWWLWWLW
last 20: 14-5-1 (73.7%) · avg cover +7.2 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg cover +5.2 ppg
since 2013: 17-10-1 (63.0%) · avg cover +3.9 ppg
Duke-6
ATScoolingAs a road fav of more than 3 points, on under 500 miles of travel in three weeks
55.9%
win rate
361-285-12
record
+6.7%
roi
+2.3ppg
avg cover
📈
WWWWPWWLWLLLLLLWWLWW
last 20: 11-8-1 (57.9%) · avg cover +2.5 ppg
last 10: 4-6 (40.0%) · avg cover -2.0 ppg
since 2013: 361-285-12 (55.9%) · avg cover +2.3 ppg
- Carter-Finley Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
Run your own query on this matchup
Every other game this week: Week 10 2026 trends.
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Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the
closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at
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