Michigan State at Michigan
Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
Michigan State@
Michigan
Michigan -14 · O/U 39.5
Michigan StateSaturday 2026-11-07
Kickoff TBD
MichiganByeLast week@ Rutgers
vs WashingtonNext week@ Oregon
56OFF plays last game–
80DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
3,853 mi116th53rd992 mi
Exclude Michigan State weeks
Exclude Michigan weeks
Stats from games played through week 9
EPA rank · adjusted
106thOffense81st
60thDefense7th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+14 Michigan State vs Michigan −14
vs Michigan −14big-play DEF31st107thbig-play OFF
big-play OFF135th10thbig-play DEF
standard-down OFF83rd11thstandard-down DEF
travel3,853 mi, 21 days116th53rdtravel992 mi, 21 days
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-138, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 22 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. FBS teams with 3+ FBS games; garbage time excluded (play counts excepted). Data: CollegeFootballData.com.
+14 Michigan State vs Michigan −14
vs Michigan −14Michigan State OFF vs Michigan DEF
run OFF76th18thrun DEF
pass OFF60th8thpass DEF
passing-down OFF58th15thpassing-down DEF
run blocking68th32ndrun DEF up front
runs not stuffed43rd46thstuffing runs
Michigan State DEF vs Michigan OFF
standard-down DEF67th106thstandard-down OFF
passing-down DEF71st24thpassing-down OFF
pass DEF55th77thpass OFF
run DEF56th68thrun OFF
run DEF up front59th60thrun blocking
stuffing runs23rd27thruns not stuffed
Pace & tendencies
63.9102ndPlays per game128th60.6
50%80thPass rate117th44%
65.488thPlays faced per game121st62.7
Michigan State
away
2 ATS trends
Michigan State+14
ATSFitzgerald as a road dog of more than 10 points
66.7%
win rate
12-6
record
+27.3%
roi
+6.3ppg
avg cover
📈
WWWWWWWWLLLWWLLWWL
last 10: 4-6 (40.0%) · avg cover -1.9 ppg
since 2013: 12-6 (66.7%) · avg cover +6.3 ppg
Michigan State+14
ATSAs a dog of more than 3 points, off a bye, with a total under 42
61.1%
win rate
22-14-1
record
+16.7%
roi
-1.0ppg
avg cover
📈
LWWWLLWLWWWWWWWWLLWW
last 20: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg cover +0.3 ppg
last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg cover +3.8 ppg
since 2013: 22-14-1 (61.1%) · avg cover -1.0 ppg
Michigan
home
1 ATS trend
Michigan-14
ATSfadeFading dogs of more than 7 points, off a loss, with a total under 42
60.9%
win rate
53-34-2
record
+16.3%
roi
+3.1ppg
avg cover
📈
WWWLLWPWWLLWPWWLLWLL
last 20: 10-8-2 (55.6%) · avg cover +3.0 ppg
last 10: 4-5-1 (44.4%) · avg cover +1.4 ppg
since 2013: 53-34-2 (60.9%) · avg cover +3.1 ppg
Over / Under
2 trends
Over 39.5
Over
In a conference game, with a total under 42
58.9%
win rate
129-90-5
record
+12.5%
roi
+3.5ppg
avg over
📈
WLLWWWLWLLLWLLLWWLLW
last 20: 9-11 (45.0%) · avg over +2.8 ppg
last 10: 4-6 (40.0%) · avg over +3.0 ppg
since 2013: 129-90-5 (58.9%) · avg over +3.5 ppg
Under 39.5
Under
Pat Fitzgerald off a loss
64.3%
win rate
27-15
record
+22.7%
roi
+3.7ppg
avg under
📈
LWLWLWWWLLLWWWLWWLWW
last 20: 12-8 (60.0%) · avg under +3.1 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg under +3.6 ppg
since 2013: 27-15 (64.3%) · avg under +3.7 ppg
- Michigan Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
Run your own query on this matchup
Every other game this week: Week 10 2026 trends.
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Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the
closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at
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