South Florida at East Carolina
South Florida@
East Carolina
South Florida -1.5 · O/U 45.5
South FloridaFriday 2026-11-06
7:30pm
61°F · wind 11 mph · 💧 32%
East CarolinaW 30-10 vs UABLast weekW 17-9 vs Temple
vs MemphisNext week@ Charlotte
55OFF plays last game75
63DEF plays last game50
Miles flown, last 21 days
607 mi32nd74th1,422 mi
Exclude South Florida weeks
Exclude East Carolina weeks
EPA rank · adjusted
113thOffense117th
33rdDefense55th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
−1.5 South Florida vs East Carolina +1.5
vs East Carolina +1.5big-play DEF1st87thbig-play OFF
passing-down DEF43rd124thpassing-down OFF
pass DEF48th127thpass OFF
run DEF30th107thrun OFF
standard-down DEF47th118thstandard-down OFF
runs not stuffed117th7thstuffing runs
run blocking116th9thrun DEF up front
big-play OFF137th58thbig-play DEF
pass OFF107th30thpass DEF
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-138, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 22 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. FBS teams with 3+ FBS games; garbage time excluded (play counts excepted). Data: CollegeFootballData.com.
−1.5 South Florida vs East Carolina +1.5
vs East Carolina +1.5South Florida OFF vs East Carolina DEF
standard-down OFF68th18thstandard-down DEF
run OFF75th50thrun DEF
passing-down OFF118th117thpassing-down DEF
South Florida DEF vs East Carolina OFF
stuffing runs29th61struns not stuffed
run DEF up front38th69thrun blocking
Pace & tendencies
58.6137thPlays per game39th70.0
44%120thPass rate110th46%
66.474thPlays faced per game49th69.0
South Florida
away
1 ATS trend
South Florida-1.5
ATSAs a fav of 3 points or fewer, in primetime, in wind of 11+ mph
62.5%
win rate
35-21
record
+19.3%
roi
+2.7ppg
avg cover
📈
WWWLWWLLLWWWWWLWWWLW
last 20: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg cover +1.9 ppg
last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg cover +3.0 ppg
since 2013: 35-21 (62.5%) · avg cover +2.7 ppg
East Carolina
home
1 ATS trend
East Carolina+1.5
ATSHarrell as a dog
72.7%
win rate
8-3-1
record
+38.8%
roi
+3.4ppg
avg cover
📈
WLWWWWLPWLWW
last 10: 7-2-1 (77.8%) · avg cover +3.7 ppg
since 2013: 8-3-1 (72.7%) · avg cover +3.4 ppg
Over / Under
1 trend
Under 45.5
Under
Late in the season, in wind of 11+ mph
55.5%
win rate
197-158-6
record
+5.9%
roi
+0.2ppg
avg under
📈
WWWLWLWWLWLLWWLWLLLW
last 20: 11-9 (55.0%) · avg under +1.4 ppg
last 10: 4-6 (40.0%) · avg under -0.8 ppg
since 2013: 197-158-6 (55.5%) · avg under +0.2 ppg
- Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
Run your own query on this matchup
Every other game this week: Week 10 2026 trends.
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Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the
closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at
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