Toledo at Sacramento State
Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
Toledo@
Sacramento State
Toledo -26.5 · O/U 51.5
ToledoWednesday 2026-11-04
7:00pm
62°F · wind 3 mph · 💧 1%
Sacramento StateByeLast weekW 31-10 vs Kent State
vs MassachusettsNext week@ Central Michigan
90OFF plays last game69
63DEF plays last game62
Miles flown, last 21 days
2,076 mi90th114th3,826 mi
Exclude Toledo weeks
Exclude Sacramento State weeks
Stats from games played through week 9
EPA rank · adjusted
37thOffense137th
47thDefense94th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
−26.5 Toledo vs Sacramento State +26.5
vs Sacramento State +26.5run DEF10th131strun OFF
stuffing runs18th137thruns not stuffed
standard-down DEF16th126thstandard-down OFF
run DEF up front26th135thrun blocking
big-play OFF37th125thbig-play DEF
run blocking47th127thrun DEF up front
pass OFF40th119thpass DEF
passing-down DEF63rd138thpassing-down OFF
runs not stuffed58th127thstuffing runs
pass DEF68th134thpass OFF
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-138, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 22 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. FBS teams with 3+ FBS games; garbage time excluded (play counts excepted). Data: CollegeFootballData.com.
−26.5 Toledo vs Sacramento State +26.5
vs Sacramento State +26.5Toledo OFF vs Sacramento State DEF
standard-down OFF50th111thstandard-down DEF
passing-down OFF61st31stpassing-down DEF
run OFF83rd55thrun DEF
Toledo DEF vs Sacramento State OFF
big-play DEF134th136thbig-play OFF
Pace & tendencies
71.126thPlays per game88th65.3
51%75thPass rate11th59%
71.920thPlays faced per game114th63.5
Toledo
away
1 ATS trend
Toledo-26.5
ATSfadeFading home dogs of more than 10 points, off a win
55.9%
win rate
193-152-4
record
+6.8%
roi
+0.6ppg
avg cover
📈
WWWLWWLWLWLLWWWLLLLW
last 20: 11-9 (55.0%) · avg cover +0.4 ppg
last 10: 4-6 (40.0%) · avg cover -3.4 ppg
since 2013: 193-152-4 (55.9%) · avg cover +0.6 ppg
Sacramento State
home
1 ATS trend · 1 🔥
Sacramento State+26.5
ATSfadeFading favs of more than 10 points, after crossing 3+ time zones west, with a total of 50+
77.3%
win rate
17-5-1
record
+47.5%
roi
+6.9ppg
avg cover
🔥
WWLWWWWWLLWWWWPWWWLW
last 20: 15-4-1 (78.9%) · avg cover +7.2 ppg
last 10: 8-1-1 (88.9%) · avg cover +9.3 ppg
since 2013: 17-5-1 (77.3%) · avg cover +6.9 ppg
Over / Under
1 trend
Over 51.5
Over
Late in the season, with a team crossing 3+ time zones, with a spread of more than 10 points
76.2%
win rate
16-5-2
record
+45.5%
roi
+5.5ppg
avg over
🔥
WWWLWWLWWWLLWPWWWWWW
last 20: 15-4-1 (78.9%) · avg over +6.7 ppg
last 10: 7-2-1 (77.8%) · avg over +6.0 ppg
since 2013: 16-5-2 (76.2%) · avg over +5.5 ppg
- Hornet Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
Run your own query on this matchup
Every other game this week: Week 10 2026 trends.
Gamble Responsibly. 21+
Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the
closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at
your book before betting.
NFL
betting trends by week and game.