Vanderbilt at Mississippi State
Vanderbilt@
Mississippi State
Mississippi State -3.5 · O/U 48.5
VanderbiltSaturday 2026-11-07
4:15pm
65°F · wind 7 mph · 💧 2%
Mississippi StateByeLast weekL 3-31 @ Texas
vs AlabamaNext weekvs Auburn
55OFF plays last game–
66DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
580 mi31st65th1,136 mi
Exclude Vanderbilt weeks
Exclude Mississippi State weeks
EPA rank · adjusted
97thOffense30th
81stDefense66th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+3.5 Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State −3.5
vs Mississippi State −3.5standard-down DEF94th16thstandard-down OFF
run DEF91st20thrun OFF
pass DEF93rd26thpass OFF
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-138, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 22 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. FBS teams with 3+ FBS games; garbage time excluded (play counts excepted). Data: CollegeFootballData.com.
+3.5 Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State −3.5
vs Mississippi State −3.5Vanderbilt OFF vs Mississippi State DEF
pass OFF67th98thpass DEF
runs not stuffed89th112thstuffing runs
run OFF106th53rdrun DEF
standard-down OFF101st74thstandard-down DEF
big-play OFF14th14thbig-play DEF
passing-down OFF94th87thpassing-down DEF
run blocking107th96thrun DEF up front
Vanderbilt DEF vs Mississippi State OFF
run DEF up front63rd22ndrun blocking
stuffing runs99th63rdruns not stuffed
passing-down DEF73rd41stpassing-down OFF
big-play DEF49th71stbig-play OFF
Pace & tendencies
64.496thPlays per game32nd70.4
57%17thPass rate50th53%
68.752ndPlays faced per game24th71.1
Vanderbilt
away
1 ATS trend
Vanderbilt+3.5
ATSLea as a road dog, off a loss
70.6%
win rate
12-5
record
+34.8%
roi
+4.6ppg
avg cover
📈
WWWWWLWWLLLWWWWWL
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg cover +1.5 ppg
since 2013: 12-5 (70.6%) · avg cover +4.6 ppg
Mississippi State
home
1 ATS trend
Mississippi State-3.5
ATSLebby as a fav
80.0%
win rate
8-2
record
+52.7%
roi
+5.5ppg
avg cover
📈
WLWWWWLWWW
last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg cover +5.5 ppg
since 2013: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg cover +5.5 ppg
Over / Under
2 trends
Under 48.5
Under
Clark Lea as a road dog of more than 3 points
77.3%
win rate
17-5
record
+47.5%
roi
+6.9ppg
avg under
🔥
WWLWWWWWLWWLWWWWLWLW
last 20: 15-5 (75.0%) · avg under +6.4 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg under +5.8 ppg
since 2013: 17-5 (77.3%) · avg under +6.9 ppg
Over 48.5
Over
Jeff Lebby at home
72.2%
win rate
13-5
record
+37.9%
roi
+6.3ppg
avg over
📈
WWWWWWWLWLWWWLWLWL
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg over +7.3 ppg
since 2013: 13-5 (72.2%) · avg over +6.3 ppg
- Davis Wade Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
Run your own query on this matchup
Every other game this week: Week 10 2026 trends.
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Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the
closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at
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