UCF at Houston
Final — UCF 17, Houston 27This game has been played. The records below were rebuilt afterwards, so they now include it.
UCF@
20Houston
Houston -10.5 · O/U 50.5
UCFSaturday 2026-10-03
12:00pm
20HoustonW 21-13 vs TCULast weekW 42-28 @ Georgia Southern
@ Oklahoma StateNext week@ Kansas State
55OFF plays last game64
68DEF plays last game67
Miles flown, last 21 days
857 mi50th97th2,582 mi
Exclude UCF weeks
Exclude Houston weeks
Stats from games played through week 4
EPA rank · adjusted
88thOffense10th
24thDefense79th
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-126, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 20 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. FBS teams with 3+ FBS games; garbage time excluded (play counts excepted). Data: CollegeFootballData.com.
+10.5 UCF vs Houston −10.5
vs Houston −10.5UCF OFF vs Houston DEF
pass OFF78th104thpass DEF
run blocking108th69thrun DEF up front
run OFF78th46thrun DEF
big-play OFF105th100thbig-play DEF
standard-down OFF87th80thstandard-down DEF
passing-down OFF75th85thpassing-down DEF
runs not stuffed84th97thstuffing runs
UCF DEF vs Houston OFF
big-play DEF74th117thbig-play OFF
passing-down DEF43rd2ndpassing-down OFF
stuffing runs41st7thruns not stuffed
pass DEF35th4thpass OFF
standard-down DEF31st10thstandard-down OFF
run DEF17th9thrun OFF
run DEF up front14th2ndrun blocking
Pace & tendencies
55.0124thPlays per game25th71.7
45%98thPass rate96th46%
75.713thPlays faced per game62nd67.3
UCF
away
1 ATS trend
UCF+10.5
ATSFrost as a dog of more than 3 points, off a win
70.6%
win rate
12-5
record
+34.8%
roi
+4.6ppg
avg cover
📈
LWWWWWWLLWWWLLWWW
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg cover -1.6 ppg
since 2013: 12-5 (70.6%) · avg cover +4.6 ppg
20Houston
home
1 ATS trend
Houston-10.5
ATSFritz as a fav
62.1%
win rate
54-33
record
+18.5%
roi
+2.9ppg
avg cover
📈
LLLLWWLLWWWWLWLWLWLL
last 20: 9-11 (45.0%) · avg cover -2.2 ppg
last 10: 5-5 (50.0%) · avg cover +1.0 ppg
since 2013: 54-33 (62.1%) · avg cover +2.9 ppg
Over / Under
2 trends
Under 50.5
Under
Willie Fritz at home
61.0%
win rate
36-23
record
+16.5%
roi
+1.8ppg
avg under
📈
LWWWWWWWWWWWLWLLWLLW
last 20: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg under +4.3 ppg
last 10: 5-5 (50.0%) · avg under +0.8 ppg
since 2013: 36-23 (61.0%) · avg under +1.8 ppg
Under 50.5
Under
Scott Frost as a dog
62.2%
win rate
23-14-1
record
+18.7%
roi
+4.3ppg
avg under
📈
WLWLWLWWWWLLWWWLLWWW
last 20: 13-7 (65.0%) · avg under +5.8 ppg
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg under +8.2 ppg
since 2013: 23-14-1 (62.2%) · avg under +4.3 ppg
- TDECU Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
Run your own query on this matchup
Every other game this week: Week 5 2026 trends.
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Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the
closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at
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