USC at Penn State
Final — USC 31, Penn State 23This game has been played. The records below were rebuilt afterwards, so they now include it.
19USC@
Penn State
USC -1.5 · O/U 54.5
19USCSaturday 2026-10-10
7:30pm
Penn StateW 25-21 vs WashingtonLast weekL 13-34 @ Northwestern
ByeNext week@ Michigan
71OFF plays last game65
61DEF plays last game70
Miles flown, last 21 days
2,247 mi89th53rd1,033 mi
Exclude USC weeks
Exclude Penn State weeks
Stats from games played through week 5
EPA rank · adjusted
2ndOffense40th
91stDefense23rd
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
−1.5 USC vs Penn State +1.5
vs Penn State +1.5run DEF up front37th120thrun blocking
run OFF27th94thrun DEF
big-play DEF118th34thbig-play OFF
pass DEF104th38thpass OFF
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-138, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 22 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. FBS teams with 3+ FBS games; garbage time excluded (play counts excepted). Data: CollegeFootballData.com.
−1.5 USC vs Penn State +1.5
vs Penn State +1.5USC OFF vs Penn State DEF
standard-down OFF8th32ndstandard-down DEF
run blocking27th50thrun DEF up front
runs not stuffed43rd17thstuffing runs
big-play OFF87th64thbig-play DEF
pass OFF1st1stpass DEF
passing-down OFF1st21stpassing-down DEF
USC DEF vs Penn State OFF
run DEF69th101strun OFF
stuffing runs96th38thruns not stuffed
passing-down DEF90th54thpassing-down OFF
standard-down DEF70th74thstandard-down OFF
Pace & tendencies
72.026thPlays per game50th67.8
52%68thPass rate64th52%
59.2126thPlays faced per game109th62.2
Penn State
home
3 ATS trends · 1 🔥
Penn State+1.5
ATSfadeFading Riley as a road fav
73.5%
win rate
25-9-1
record
+40.4%
roi
+5.7ppg
avg cover
🔥
WWWLWWLWWWWWWWLWWWWL
last 20: 16-4 (80.0%) · avg cover +7.8 ppg
last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg cover +5.7 ppg
since 2013: 25-9-1 (73.5%) · avg cover +5.7 ppg
Penn State+1.5
ATSAs a home dog of 3 points or fewer, with a total of 50+
57.0%
win rate
212-160-19
record
+8.8%
roi
+1.9ppg
avg cover
📈
LWLPLWWLWLLLLPWLWLWL
last 20: 7-11-2 (38.9%) · avg cover -0.6 ppg
last 10: 3-6-1 (33.3%) · avg cover -3.6 ppg
since 2013: 212-160-19 (57.0%) · avg cover +1.9 ppg
Penn State+1.5
ATSCampbell at home, off a loss
66.7%
win rate
18-9-1
record
+27.3%
roi
+4.7ppg
avg cover
📈
WWLLWWLWWWPLWLWWWLLL
last 20: 11-8-1 (57.9%) · avg cover +4.4 ppg
last 10: 4-5-1 (44.4%) · avg cover -1.2 ppg
since 2013: 18-9-1 (66.7%) · avg cover +4.7 ppg
Over / Under
2 trends
Under 54.5
Under
Matt Campbell as a dog
70.7%
win rate
29-12
record
+35.0%
roi
+4.5ppg
avg under
🔥
WWWWWWWLWLWWWLLWLWWW
last 20: 15-5 (75.0%) · avg under +3.3 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg under +1.3 ppg
since 2013: 29-12 (70.7%) · avg under +4.5 ppg
Over 54.5
Over
Lincoln Riley off a win
62.0%
win rate
57-35
record
+18.3%
roi
+4.4ppg
avg over
📈
LWLLLWWLWWLWLWWLWWWL
last 20: 11-9 (55.0%) · avg over +3.1 ppg
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg over +4.0 ppg
since 2013: 57-35 (62.0%) · avg over +4.4 ppg
- Beaver Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
Run your own query on this matchup
Every other game this week: Week 6 2026 trends.
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Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the
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