Florida State at Miami
Final — Florida State 35, Miami 43This game has been played. The records below were rebuilt afterwards, so they now include it.
Florida State@
3Miami
Miami -20.5 · O/U 57.5
Florida StateSaturday 2026-10-17
7:00pm
3MiamiL 20-44 @ LouisvilleLast weekBye
ByeNext weekvs Pittsburgh
77OFF plays last game64
61DEF plays last game75
Miles flown, last 21 days
1,482 mi83rd68th1,244 mi
Exclude Florida State weeks
Exclude Miami weeks
Stats from games played through week 6
EPA rank · adjusted
30thOffense6th
117thDefense31st
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+20.5 Florida State vs Miami −20.5
vs Miami −20.5big-play OFF9th81stbig-play DEF
standard-down DEF104th3rdstandard-down OFF
pass DEF97th2ndpass OFF
run DEF up front109th22ndrun blocking
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-138, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 22 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. FBS teams with 3+ FBS games; garbage time excluded (play counts excepted). Data: CollegeFootballData.com.
+20.5 Florida State vs Miami −20.5
vs Miami −20.5Florida State OFF vs Miami DEF
passing-down OFF18th47thpassing-down DEF
pass OFF72nd52ndpass DEF
run OFF11th21strun DEF
standard-down OFF57th37thstandard-down DEF
run blocking3rd14thrun DEF up front
runs not stuffed19th15thstuffing runs
Florida State DEF vs Miami OFF
run DEF104th42ndrun OFF
stuffing runs79th21struns not stuffed
passing-down DEF90th43rdpassing-down OFF
big-play DEF111th76thbig-play OFF
Pace & tendencies
68.647thPlays per game60th67.3
46%103rdPass rate48th54%
67.068thPlays faced per game93rd64.0
Florida State
away
2 ATS trends
Florida State+20.5
ATSfadeFading Cristobal at home, off a win, in primetime
73.7%
win rate
14-5
record
+40.7%
roi
+6.6ppg
avg cover
📈
WWWLWLWWLWWWWWWLWLW
last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg cover +10.2 ppg
since 2013: 14-5 (73.7%) · avg cover +6.6 ppg
Florida State+20.5
ATSfadeFading favs of more than 10 points, off a bye, in primetime
56.3%
win rate
112-87-4
record
+7.4%
roi
+1.1ppg
avg cover
📈
WLLWWLWWLLLWLLLLWWLL
last 20: 8-12 (40.0%) · avg cover -4.8 ppg
last 10: 3-7 (30.0%) · avg cover -9.6 ppg
since 2013: 112-87-4 (56.3%) · avg cover +1.1 ppg
3Miami
home
1 ATS trend
Miami-20.5
ATScoolingAt home, off a win, off a bye
55.9%
win rate
305-241-14
record
+6.6%
roi
+2.2ppg
avg cover
📈
WLWWLWLWWWLWWLLPWWWW
last 20: 13-6-1 (68.4%) · avg cover +2.7 ppg
last 10: 6-3-1 (66.7%) · avg cover +3.1 ppg
since 2013: 305-241-14 (55.9%) · avg cover +2.2 ppg
Over / Under
2 trends
Under 57.5
Under
In a conference game, with a team off a bye, in primetime
58.0%
win rate
251-182-5
record
+10.7%
roi
+1.8ppg
avg under
🔥
WLLWWLWWWLLWWWLWLWWW
last 20: 13-7 (65.0%) · avg under +6.1 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg under +9.4 ppg
since 2013: 251-182-5 (58.0%) · avg under +1.8 ppg
Over 57.5
Over
Mario Cristobal as a fav of more than 10 points
61.5%
win rate
32-20-1
record
+17.5%
roi
+1.1ppg
avg over
📈
WWLWLWLWLWWLWWWLWWWW
last 20: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg over +4.9 ppg
last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg over +6.8 ppg
since 2013: 32-20-1 (61.5%) · avg over +1.1 ppg
- Hard Rock Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
Run your own query on this matchup
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