Duke at Virginia
Final — Duke 19, Virginia 16This game has been played. The records below were rebuilt afterwards, so they now include it.
Duke@
Virginia
Virginia -2.5 · O/U 47.5
DukeFriday 2026-10-23
7:00pm
VirginiaL 20-24 vs North CarolinaLast weekL 13-23 @ SMU
vs Boston CollegeNext week@ Wake Forest
72OFF plays last game54
65DEF plays last game71
Miles flown, last 21 days
833 mi40th100th3,414 mi
Exclude Duke weeks
Exclude Virginia weeks
Stats from games played through week 7
EPA rank · adjusted
48thOffense57th
51stDefense84th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+2.5 Duke vs Virginia −2.5
vs Virginia −2.5big-play DEF18th135thbig-play OFF
passing-down DEF4th115thpassing-down OFF
travel833 mi, 21 days40th100thtravel3,414 mi, 21 days
stuffing runs90th5thruns not stuffed
standard-down DEF110th35thstandard-down OFF
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-138, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 22 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. FBS teams with 3+ FBS games; garbage time excluded (play counts excepted). Data: CollegeFootballData.com.
+2.5 Duke vs Virginia −2.5
vs Virginia −2.5Duke OFF vs Virginia DEF
run blocking64th89thrun DEF up front
pass OFF62nd55thpass DEF
run OFF82nd86thrun DEF
big-play OFF49th61stbig-play DEF
standard-down OFF87th68thstandard-down DEF
passing-down OFF43rd54thpassing-down DEF
runs not stuffed75th77thstuffing runs
Duke DEF vs Virginia OFF
run DEF up front45th14thrun blocking
pass DEF83rd79thpass OFF
run DEF37th36thrun OFF
Pace & tendencies
71.625thPlays per game49th68.8
47%102ndPass rate112th45%
61.4124thPlays faced per game74th66.2
Duke
away
3 ATS trends
Duke+2.5
ATSfadeFading favs of 3 points or fewer, off a loss
55.3%
win rate
442-357-24
record
+5.6%
roi
+1.7ppg
avg cover
📈
WWLWWLLLLWLLLWLLWLLW
last 20: 8-12 (40.0%) · avg cover -3.4 ppg
last 10: 3-7 (30.0%) · avg cover -8.7 ppg
since 2013: 442-357-24 (55.3%) · avg cover +1.7 ppg
Duke+2.5
ATSDiaz as a dog
69.6%
win rate
16-7-1
record
+32.8%
roi
+2.5ppg
avg cover
📈
WLLWWWWWPWLWWLLLWWWW
last 20: 13-6-1 (68.4%) · avg cover +1.9 ppg
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg cover +0.6 ppg
since 2013: 16-7-1 (69.6%) · avg cover +2.5 ppg
Duke+2.5
ATSfadeFading Elliott as a fav, in primetime
70.0%
win rate
7-3
record
+33.6%
roi
+4.8ppg
avg cover
📈
WWLWLWLWWW
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg cover +4.8 ppg
since 2013: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg cover +4.8 ppg
Over / Under
2 trends
Under 47.5
Under
Tony Elliott as a home fav
68.4%
win rate
13-6
record
+30.6%
roi
+5.3ppg
avg under
📈
WWLWLWWWWLLWWWWLWLW
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg under +4.0 ppg
since 2013: 13-6 (68.4%) · avg under +5.3 ppg
Under 47.5
Under
Teams as a home fav of 3 points or fewer, in primetime
55.9%
win rate
170-134-6
record
+6.8%
roi
+1.4ppg
avg under
📈
WWLWWLWWLLLWLLLWLWLW
last 20: 10-10 (50.0%) · avg under -3.2 ppg
last 10: 4-6 (40.0%) · avg under -5.0 ppg
since 2013: 170-134-6 (55.9%) · avg under +1.4 ppg
- Scott Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
Run your own query on this matchup
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