Michigan State at UCLA
Final — Michigan State 10, UCLA 28This game has been played. The records below were rebuilt afterwards, so they now include it.
Michigan State@
9UCLA
UCLA -16.5 · O/U 43.5
Michigan StateSaturday 2026-10-24
3:30pm
9UCLAL 21-24 vs NorthwesternLast weekW 17-7 vs Wisconsin
ByeNext weekvs Nevada
57OFF plays last game72
74DEF plays last game49
Miles flown, last 21 days
1,902 mi80th65th1,464 mi
Exclude Michigan State weeks
Exclude UCLA weeks
Stats from games played through week 7
EPA rank · adjusted
100thOffense34th
75thDefense4th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+16.5 Michigan State vs UCLA −16.5
vs UCLA −16.5big-play OFF134th46thbig-play DEF
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-138, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 22 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. FBS teams with 3+ FBS games; garbage time excluded (play counts excepted). Data: CollegeFootballData.com.
+16.5 Michigan State vs UCLA −16.5
vs UCLA −16.5Michigan State OFF vs UCLA DEF
pass OFF55th5thpass DEF
passing-down OFF51st3rdpassing-down DEF
run blocking63rd24thrun DEF up front
run OFF61st23rdrun DEF
standard-down OFF65th28thstandard-down DEF
runs not stuffed45th25thstuffing runs
Michigan State DEF vs UCLA OFF
passing-down DEF86th32ndpassing-down OFF
run DEF up front39th3rdrun blocking
run DEF39th6thrun OFF
pass DEF69th74thpass OFF
big-play DEF101st84thbig-play OFF
standard-down DEF50th30thstandard-down OFF
stuffing runs17th30thruns not stuffed
Pace & tendencies
65.089thPlays per game53rd68.0
50%87thPass rate122nd43%
63.3112thPlays faced per game96th64.5
Michigan State
away
2 ATS trends
Michigan State+16.5
ATSFitzgerald as a road dog of more than 10 points
66.7%
win rate
12-6
record
+27.3%
roi
+6.3ppg
avg cover
📈
WWWWWWWWLLLWWLLWWL
last 10: 4-6 (40.0%) · avg cover -1.9 ppg
since 2013: 12-6 (66.7%) · avg cover +6.3 ppg
Michigan State+16.5
ATSAs a dog, in a conference game, after crossing 3+ time zones west
63.0%
win rate
17-10
record
+20.2%
roi
+2.0ppg
avg cover
📈
WWWLWLWLWWWLWWWLLLWL
last 20: 12-8 (60.0%) · avg cover +0.7 ppg
last 10: 5-5 (50.0%) · avg cover -1.6 ppg
since 2013: 17-10 (63.0%) · avg cover +2.0 ppg
9UCLA
home
1 ATS trend
UCLA-16.5
ATSChesney off a win
65.4%
win rate
17-9
record
+24.8%
roi
+5.8ppg
avg cover
📈
WLWWLLWWLWLWLWWWWWWW
last 20: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg cover +7.0 ppg
last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg cover +8.8 ppg
since 2013: 17-9 (65.4%) · avg cover +5.8 ppg
Over / Under
2 trends
Under 43.5
Under
Bob Chesney as a fav of more than 3 points
68.0%
win rate
17-8
record
+29.8%
roi
+2.5ppg
avg under
📈
WWWWLWLWWWWLLLWLWWLW
last 20: 13-7 (65.0%) · avg under +0.7 ppg
last 10: 5-5 (50.0%) · avg under -5.6 ppg
since 2013: 17-8 (68.0%) · avg under +2.5 ppg
Under 43.5
Under
Pat Fitzgerald off a loss
64.3%
win rate
27-15
record
+22.7%
roi
+3.7ppg
avg under
📈
LWLWLWWWLLLWWWLWWLWW
last 20: 12-8 (60.0%) · avg under +3.1 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg under +3.6 ppg
since 2013: 27-15 (64.3%) · avg under +3.7 ppg
- Rose Bowl
- Roof · outdoors
Run your own query on this matchup
Every other game this week: Week 8 2026 trends.
Gamble Responsibly. 21+
Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the
closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at
your book before betting.
NFL
betting trends by week and game.