Baylor at UCF
Final — Baylor 41, UCF 9This game has been played. The records below were rebuilt afterwards, so they now include it.
Baylor@
UCF
Baylor -1.5 · O/U 49
BaylorFriday 2026-10-30
7:30pm
UCFL 24-25 @ KansasLast weekW 39-31 vs BYU
vs Iowa StateNext week@ Kansas
68OFF plays last game83
87DEF plays last game69
Miles flown, last 21 days
2,520 mi88th77th2,120 mi
Exclude Baylor weeks
Exclude UCF weeks
EPA rank · adjusted
66thOffense70th
19thDefense28th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
−1.5 Baylor vs UCF +1.5
vs UCF +1.5standard-down DEF24th90thstandard-down OFF
run blocking112th11thrun DEF up front
standard-down OFF116th36thstandard-down DEF
run OFF101st26thrun DEF
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-138, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 22 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. FBS teams with 3+ FBS games; garbage time excluded (play counts excepted). Data: CollegeFootballData.com.
−1.5 Baylor vs UCF +1.5
vs UCF +1.5Baylor OFF vs UCF DEF
big-play OFF4th28thbig-play DEF
pass OFF86th57thpass DEF
passing-down OFF44th40thpassing-down DEF
runs not stuffed53rd55thstuffing runs
Baylor DEF vs UCF OFF
run DEF up front55th118thrun blocking
big-play DEF30th91stbig-play OFF
run DEF16th67thrun OFF
stuffing runs34th85thruns not stuffed
pass DEF34th67thpass OFF
passing-down DEF34th26thpassing-down OFF
Pace & tendencies
80.23rdPlays per game88th65.2
56%19thPass rate66th52%
77.24thPlays faced per game14th72.8
Baylor
away
1 ATS trend
Baylor-1.5
ATSfadeFading Frost off a win, in primetime
66.7%
win rate
10-5
record
+27.3%
roi
+4.3ppg
avg cover
📈
WWLLLWWWWWWWLLW
last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg cover +8.8 ppg
since 2013: 10-5 (66.7%) · avg cover +4.3 ppg
UCF
home
1 ATS trend
UCF+1.5
ATSfadeFading favs of 3 points or fewer, off a loss
55.2%
win rate
442-359-24
record
+5.3%
roi
+1.6ppg
avg cover
📈
LWWLLLLWLLLWLLWLLWLL
last 20: 6-14 (30.0%) · avg cover -6.8 ppg
last 10: 3-7 (30.0%) · avg cover -8.8 ppg
since 2013: 442-359-24 (55.2%) · avg cover +1.6 ppg
Over / Under
2 trends
Over 49
Over
Teams as a road fav of 3 points or fewer, off a loss
56.3%
win rate
120-93-1
record
+7.6%
roi
+3.0ppg
avg over
📈
WWWLWLWWLWWLLWWLWWWW
last 20: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg over +6.3 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg over +7.8 ppg
since 2013: 120-93-1 (56.3%) · avg over +3.0 ppg
Over 49
Over
Dave Aranda on the road, off a loss
64.7%
win rate
11-6
record
+23.5%
roi
+9.9ppg
avg over
📈
LWLWWWWWLWWWWLLLW
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg over +10.8 ppg
since 2013: 11-6 (64.7%) · avg over +9.9 ppg
- FBC Mortgage Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
Run your own query on this matchup
Every other game this week: Week 9 2026 trends.
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Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the
closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at
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