Mississippi State at Texas
Mississippi State@
Texas
Texas -20.5 · O/U 50.5
Mississippi StateSaturday 2026-10-31
7:30pm
78°F · wind 4 mph · 💧 4%
TexasL 15-23 vs OklahomaLast weekW 34-27 vs Ole Miss
vs VanderbiltNext week@ Missouri
64OFF plays last game73
72DEF plays last game82
Miles flown, last 21 days
1,074 mi44th1st0 mi
Exclude Mississippi State weeks
Exclude Texas weeks
EPA rank · adjusted
32ndOffense76th
69thDefense9th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+20.5 Mississippi State vs Texas −20.5
vs Texas −20.5big-play DEF15th93rdbig-play OFF
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-138, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 22 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. FBS teams with 3+ FBS games; garbage time excluded (play counts excepted). Data: CollegeFootballData.com.
+20.5 Mississippi State vs Texas −20.5
vs Texas −20.5Mississippi State OFF vs Texas DEF
runs not stuffed64th9thstuffing runs
big-play OFF71st29thbig-play DEF
passing-down OFF40th8thpassing-down DEF
pass OFF29th5thpass DEF
run OFF17th5thrun DEF
standard-down OFF16th3rdstandard-down DEF
run blocking24th7thrun DEF up front
Mississippi State DEF vs Texas OFF
passing-down DEF88th50thpassing-down OFF
pass DEF88th51stpass OFF
stuffing runs117th88thruns not stuffed
run DEF55th49thrun OFF
standard-down DEF73rd56thstandard-down OFF
run DEF up front98th101strun blocking
Pace & tendencies
70.433rdPlays per game62nd68.4
53%52ndPass rate91st49%
71.127thPlays faced per game45th69.1
Mississippi State
away
1 ATS trend
Mississippi State+20.5
ATSLebby on the road
69.2%
win rate
9-4
record
+32.2%
roi
+6.3ppg
avg cover
📈
LWWWWWLWWLWWL
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg cover +4.4 ppg
since 2013: 9-4 (69.2%) · avg cover +6.3 ppg
Texas
home
1 ATS trend
Texas-20.5
ATSSarkisian at home, in primetime
66.7%
win rate
16-8
record
+27.3%
roi
+5.8ppg
avg cover
📈
WWLLWLWWWLLWWWLWWLLW
last 20: 12-8 (60.0%) · avg cover +3.6 ppg
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg cover +5.0 ppg
since 2013: 16-8 (66.7%) · avg cover +5.8 ppg
Over / Under
2 trends
Under 50.5
Under
Steve Sarkisian off a win, in primetime
76.2%
win rate
16-5
record
+45.5%
roi
+8.0ppg
avg under
🔥
LWWLWWWWLLWWWWLWWWWW
last 20: 15-5 (75.0%) · avg under +8.1 ppg
last 10: 9-1 (90.0%) · avg under +10.3 ppg
since 2013: 16-5 (76.2%) · avg under +8.0 ppg
Under 50.5
Under
Jeff Lebby on the road
69.2%
win rate
9-4
record
+32.2%
roi
+3.5ppg
avg under
📈
WWLWWWWWLLWLW
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg under +5.0 ppg
since 2013: 9-4 (69.2%) · avg under +3.5 ppg
- DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
Run your own query on this matchup
Every other game this week: Week 9 2026 trends.
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Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the
closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at
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