Texas State at Boise State
Texas State@
Boise State
Boise State -12.5 · O/U 65.5
Texas StateSaturday 2026-10-31
10:00pm
53°F · wind 2 mph · 💧 24%
Boise StateW 20-17 vs Utah StateLast weekW 31-10 @ Washington State
@ Oregon StateNext week@ Colorado State
70OFF plays last game63
70DEF plays last game74
Miles flown, last 21 days
1,380 mi60th17th442 mi
Exclude Texas State weeks
Exclude Boise State weeks
EPA rank · adjusted
30thOffense3rd
98thDefense55th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+12.5 Texas State vs Boise State −12.5
vs Boise State −12.5passing-down OFF2nd92ndpassing-down DEF
run OFF8th77thrun DEF
passing-down DEF111th8thpassing-down OFF
pass DEF120th21stpass OFF
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-138, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 22 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. FBS teams with 3+ FBS games; garbage time excluded (play counts excepted). Data: CollegeFootballData.com.
+12.5 Texas State vs Boise State −12.5
vs Boise State −12.5Texas State OFF vs Boise State DEF
big-play OFF83rd136thbig-play DEF
pass OFF22nd39thpass DEF
standard-down OFF35th42ndstandard-down DEF
run blocking27th46thrun DEF up front
runs not stuffed32nd10thstuffing runs
Texas State DEF vs Boise State OFF
standard-down DEF90th29thstandard-down OFF
big-play DEF66th20thbig-play OFF
run DEF up front38th6thrun blocking
run DEF40th16thrun OFF
stuffing runs11th2ndruns not stuffed
Pace & tendencies
78.84thPlays per game47th69.2
44%118thPass rate126th42%
70.732ndPlays faced per game135th59.0
Boise State
home
3 ATS trends · 1 🔥
Boise State-12.5
ATSfadeFading teams in primetime, with a total of 50+, playing 15°+ colder than at home
65.3%
win rate
49-26
record
+24.7%
roi
+3.5ppg
avg cover
🔥
WWWWLLWWLWWLLWLLLWWW
last 20: 12-8 (60.0%) · avg cover -0.2 ppg
last 10: 5-5 (50.0%) · avg cover -1.7 ppg
since 2013: 49-26 (65.3%) · avg cover +3.5 ppg
Boise State-12.5
ATSDanielson as a fav, in primetime
68.4%
win rate
13-6-1
record
+30.6%
roi
+1.8ppg
avg cover
📈
LWWPWWLWLWWWWWWWWLLL
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg cover +2.8 ppg
since 2013: 13-6-1 (68.4%) · avg cover +1.8 ppg
Boise State-12.5
ATSfadeFading Kinne off a win, in primetime
70.0%
win rate
7-3
record
+33.6%
roi
+2.5ppg
avg cover
📈
WLWWLLWWWW
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg cover +2.5 ppg
since 2013: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg cover +2.5 ppg
Over / Under
1 trend
Over 65.5
Over
Spencer Danielson as a home fav of more than 7 points, in primetime
90.0%
win rate
9-1
record
+71.8%
roi
+8.0ppg
avg over
🔥
WWWLWWWWWW
last 10: 9-1 (90.0%) · avg over +8.0 ppg
since 2013: 9-1 (90.0%) · avg over +8.0 ppg
- Albertsons Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
Run your own query on this matchup
Every other game this week: Week 9 2026 trends.
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Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the
closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at
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