Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
BUF@
NYJ
BUF -7.5 · O/U 50.5
BUFSunday 2026-11-15
1:00pm
CBS
50°F · wind 6 mph · 💧 10%
NYJHow to attack
BUF offense vs NYJ defense- Beat the blitzNYJ blitzes on 39.4% of dropbacks (6th-most); BUF ranks 5th in EPA against the blitz.Angleno pass yds line posted yet for Josh Allen (the data leans over).
- Attack the short rightMixedNYJ gives up 5.5 yds per target to the short right (31st, 82 targets). Khalil Shakir has 18 targets there this season.
- Without DB Jarvis Brownlee (wk 7): 7.3 yds per target on 10 targets; with him 5.4 on 55; expected back
- Khalil Shakir on these targets: 18, 83% caught, 7.1 yds each (league 69%, 5.6)
- Two big plays make it (20 yds wk 5 vs CLE, 16 wk 6 vs NE); without them 5.2 (league 5.6)
- NYJ allowed more than league average per target in 5 of 8 games
Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Khalil Shakir (the data leans over).
NYJ offense vs BUF defense- Run the ballMixedBUF ranks 25th vs the run (3.6 per carry). Braelon Allen has 81% of the backs' carries lately (18 a game).
- Braelon Allen: 112 carries here, 5.0 per carry, 44% successful (league 4.0, 40%)
- Mostly one game: wk 3 vs LAC, 4.5 per carry on 27
- BUF allowed more than league average per carry in 2 of 7 games
- Breece Hall: 51 carries here, 3.2 per carry, 33% successful (league 4.0, 40%)
Angleno rush yds line posted yet for Braelon Allen (the data leans over).
Motivation & storylines
- StakesDivision game. BUF leads the AFC East by 1.5; BUF 6-1; NYJ 2-6, 4.5 back.
- HistoryLast met 2025 wk 18: BUF 35-8 at BUF.
- History2025 series: BUF swept NYJ (30-10 at NYJ, 8-35 at BUF).
- RevengeNYJ vs a former team: Harrison Phillips (DL, BUF 2020-21).
- SpotBUF won 36-10 vs BAL last week.
@ MINLast week@ KC
vs MIANext week@ LAC
–OFF plays last game–
–DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
1,749 mi12th17th2,171 mi
Exclude BUF weeks
Exclude NYJ weeks
Stats from games played through week 8
EPA rank · adjusted
1stOffense12th
29thDefense20th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
−7.5 BUF vs NYJ +7.5
vs NYJ +7.512-personnel OFF*12 rate 17th1st27thDEF vs 12 personnel*
third-down OFF3rd25ththird-down DEF
run blocking*1st23rdrun DEF up front*
OFF vs the blitz5th26thblitzing DEFblitz rate 6th
early-down OFF7th24thearly-down DEF
run OFF2nd18thrun DEF
pass OFF9th24thpass DEF
pass rush*5th20thpass protection*
early-down DEF30th10thearly-down OFF
DEF vs 12 personnel*25th5th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 12th
zone coverage*zone rate 16th26th11thOFF vs zone*
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
−7.5 BUF vs NYJ +7.5
vs NYJ +7.5BUF OFF vs NYJ DEF
OFF vs man*1st15thman coverage*man rate 5th
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 27th9th23rdDEF vs 11 personnel*
protection vs no blitz5th17thpass rush w/o blitz
play-action OFFPA rate 6th6th18thplay-action DEF
OFF vs zone*9th15thzone coverage*zone rate 28th
big-play OFF1st4thbig-play DEF
pass protection*23rd20thpass rush*
BUF DEF vs NYJ OFF
man coverage*man rate 17th10th23rdOFF vs man*
pass rush w/o blitz5th17thprotection vs no blitz
third-down DEF19th26ththird-down OFF
run DEF up front*9th15thrun blocking*
run DEF28th16thrun OFF
big-play DEF18th6thbig-play OFF
play-action DEF22nd10thplay-action OFFPA rate 22nd
blitzing DEFblitz rate 8th22nd11thOFF vs the blitz
DEF vs 11 personnel*30th19th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 15th
pass DEF22nd12thpass OFF
Pace & tendencies
29.9s12thSeconds between snaps27th31.6s
65.611thPlays per game27th60.8
-1.3%17thPass rate over expected23rd-2.6%
4%23rdNo-huddle rate24th4%
46%32ndShotgun rate23rd57%
64%8thMotion rate29th50%
27%6thPlay-action rate22nd21%
3.11s4thTime to throw*11th2.99s
49%27th11 personnel*15th59%
23%17th12 personnel*12th26%
38%8thDEF blitz rate6th39%
20%17thDEF man rate*5th30%
69.34thPlays faced per game17th65.3
NYJ
home
4 ATS trends
NYJ+7.5
ATSAs a dog of more than 7 points, with a total of 50+
60.4%
win rate
87-57-1
record
+15.3%
roi
+0.9ppg
avg cover
📈
PLWLLWWWWLWWLWWWWWWW
last 20: 14-5-1 (73.7%) · avg cover +3.6 ppg
last 10: 9-1 (90.0%) · avg cover +7.5 ppg
since 2003: 87-57-1 (60.4%) · avg cover +0.9 ppg
NYJ+7.5
ATSAs a home dog of more than 7 points
57.4%
win rate
178-132-2
record
+9.6%
roi
+0.8ppg
avg cover
📈
LLWWLWWWWWWLWWWLWWLW
last 20: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg cover +1.1 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg cover +0.3 ppg
since 2003: 178-132-2 (57.4%) · avg cover +0.8 ppg
NYJ+7.5
ATSfadeFading Allen as a road fav of more than 7 points
80.0%
win rate
8-2
record
+52.7%
roi
+6.7ppg
avg cover
📈
WWLWWLWWWW
last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg cover +6.7 ppg
since 2003: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg cover +6.7 ppg
NYJ+7.5
ATSSmith as a home dog of more than 3 points, outdoors
72.7%
win rate
8-3
record
+38.8%
roi
+2.1ppg
avg cover
📈
WWWLWWWWLLW
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg cover +1.8 ppg
since 2003: 8-3 (72.7%) · avg cover +2.1 ppg
Over / Under
1 trend
Under 50.5
Under
Geno Smith as a home dog, outdoors
71.4%
win rate
15-6
record
+36.4%
roi
+6.9ppg
avg under
📈
WLLWLWWWWWWWLLWWWWLW
last 20: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg under +7.0 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg under +4.8 ppg
since 2003: 15-6 (71.4%) · avg under +6.9 ppg
- MetLife Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
- Surface · turf
Run your own query on this matchup
Every other game this week: Week 10 2026 trends.
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Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the
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