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🏈 NFL Survivor Pool Picks — Week 4

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Ranked by what using a team now costs the best season you have left, not by win probability alone. Pick % is this week's reported field.

1
MIN vs MIA -10.5
82.3%Win
FreeCosts you
1.07xField edge
30.0%Proj Pick %
0.8%Used
Free. 82.3% now, and the best remaining season never asks for them again.
Still have them for:wk 12 vs ATL 66% estwk 16 vs WAS 64% estwk 13 vs CAR 63% est
2
BAL vs TEN -11.5
84.5%Win
12.0%Costs you
1.05xField edge
42.9%Proj Pick %
1.5%Used
84.5% now, but the plan wants them in week 16 (84.7%, Model). Using them here spends 12.0% of the best season still available.
Still have them for:wk 16 vs CLE 85% estwk 6 @ CLE 80% estwk 14 vs TB 76% est
3
SEA vs LAC -7
73.1%Win
12.8%Costs you
1.09xField edge
3.5%Proj Pick %
4.0%Used
73.1% now, but the plan wants them in week 14 (77.8%, Model). Using them here spends 12.8% of the best season still available.
Still have them for:wk 14 vs NYG 78% estwk 9 vs ARI 76% estwk 10 @ LV 72% est
4
KC @ LV -4.5
65.4%Win
22.5%Costs you
0.98xField edge
1.9%Proj Pick %
66.0%Used
65.4% now, but the plan wants them in week 11 (74.1%, Model). Using them here spends 22.5% of the best season still available.
Still have them for:wk 9 vs NYJ 77% estwk 18 vs LV 76% estwk 11 vs ARI 74% est
5
CHI vs NYJ -3.5
62.1%Win
24.5%Costs you
0.94xField edge
1.6%Proj Pick %
3.9%Used
62.1% now and not needed later — but 24.5% worse than the board's best pick, which is the whole of the cost.
Still have them for:wk 14 @ MIA 69% estwk 11 vs NO 64% estwk 9 vs TB 64% est
6
DET @ CAR -3.5
62.1%Win
24.5%Costs you
0.93xField edge
1.6%Proj Pick %
36.7%Used
62.1% now, but the plan wants them in week 9 (76.5%, Model). Using them here spends 24.5% of the best season still available.
Still have them for:wk 9 @ MIA 77% estwk 14 vs TEN 76% estwk 16 vs NYG 73% est
7
LA @ PHI -3.5
62.1%Win
26.4%Costs you
0.95xField edge
0.3%Proj Pick %
1.2%Used
62.1% now, but the plan wants them in week 6 (77.2%, Model). Using them here spends 26.4% of the best season still available.
Still have them for:wk 6 vs ARI 77% estwk 7 @ LV 73% estwk 9 @ WAS 71% est
8
SF vs DEN -3
60.4%Win
26.5%Costs you
0.92xField edge
0.5%Proj Pick %
70.3%Used
60.4% now and not needed later — but 26.5% worse than the board's best pick, which is the whole of the cost.
Still have them for:wk 9 vs LV 76% estwk 6 vs WAS 75% estwk 7 @ ATL 69% est
9
BUF vs NE -7
73.1%Win
27.6%Costs you
1.07xField edge
6.3%Proj Pick %
13.7%Used
73.1% now, but the plan wants them in week 17 (83.2%, Model). Using them here spends 27.6% of the best season still available.
Still have them for:wk 11 vs MIA 89% estwk 17 @ MIA 83% estwk 18 vs NYJ 81% est
10
ARI @ NYG -2.5
58.7%Win
28.6%Costs you
0.89xField edge
0.7%Proj Pick %
0.1%Used
58.7% now and not needed later — but 28.6% worse than the board's best pick, which is the whole of the cost.
Still have them for:wk 17 vs LV 58% estwk 15 vs NYJ 58% estwk 12 vs WAS 56% est
See more
11
NO vs ATL -2.5
58.7%Win
28.6%Costs you
0.89xField edge
1.1%Proj Pick %
0.1%Used
58.7% now and not needed later — but 28.6% worse than the board's best pick, which is the whole of the cost.
Still have them for:wk 9 vs CLE 67% estwk 18 vs TB 54% estwk 10 vs CAR 54% est
12
IND @ WAS -3.5
62.1%Win
29.8%Costs you
0.95xField edge
0.5%Proj Pick %
0.2%Used
62.1% now, but the plan wants them in week 10 (77.6%, Model). Using them here spends 29.8% of the best season still available.
Still have them for:wk 10 vs MIA 78% estwk 6 vs TEN 71% estwk 17 @ CLE 68% est
13
HOU vs DAL -3
60.4%Win
30.4%Costs you
0.93xField edge
0.3%Proj Pick %
0.0%Used
60.4% now, but the plan wants them in week 7 (74.9%, Model). Using them here spends 30.4% of the best season still available.
Still have them for:wk 18 vs TEN 78% estwk 10 @ CLE 76% estwk 7 vs NYG 75% est
14
CIN vs JAX -2.5
58.7%Win
33.7%Costs you
0.89xField edge
0.4%Proj Pick %
1.5%Used
58.7% now, but the plan wants them in week 8 (75.2%, Model). Using them here spends 33.7% of the best season still available.
Still have them for:wk 18 vs CLE 79% estwk 5 @ MIA 77% -8.5wk 8 vs TEN 75% est
15
GB @ TB -3.5
62.1%Win
36.9%Costs you
0.94xField edge
1.2%Proj Pick %
4.0%Used
62.1% now, but the plan wants them in week 15 (77.5%, Model). Using them here spends 36.9% of the best season still available.
Still have them for:wk 15 vs MIA 78% estwk 8 vs CAR 65% estwk 5 vs CHI 59% -2.5
16
ATL @ NO +2.5
41.3%Win
49.8%Costs you
0.63xField edge
0.4%Proj Pick %
0.1%Used
41.3% now and not needed later — but 49.8% worse than the board's best pick, which is the whole of the cost.
Still have them for:wk 14 @ CLE 56% estwk 17 vs NO 52% estwk 16 vs TB 52% est
17
NYG vs ARI +2.5
41.3%Win
49.8%Costs you
0.63xField edge
0.3%Proj Pick %
1.0%Used
41.3% now and not needed later — but 49.8% worse than the board's best pick, which is the whole of the cost.
Still have them for:wk 15 vs CLE 65% estwk 10 vs WAS 53% estwk 6 vs NO 52% est
18
CAR vs DET +3.5
37.9%Win
53.9%Costs you
0.59xField edge
0.1%Proj Pick %
3.2%Used
37.9% now and not needed later — but 53.9% worse than the board's best pick, which is the whole of the cost.
Still have them for:wk 18 vs ATL 58% estwk 14 vs NO 55% estwk 7 vs TB 55% est
19
NYJ @ CHI +3.5
37.9%Win
53.9%Costs you
0.59xField edge
0.7%Proj Pick %
0.7%Used
37.9% now and not needed later — but 53.9% worse than the board's best pick, which is the whole of the cost.
Still have them for:wk 7 vs MIA 67% estwk 5 vs CLE 65% estwk 12 @ MIA 58% est
20
PHI vs LA +3.5
37.9%Win
53.9%Costs you
0.58xField edge
0.3%Proj Pick %
27.8%Used
37.9% now and not needed later — but 53.9% worse than the board's best pick, which is the whole of the cost.
Still have them for:wk 9 vs NYG 72% estwk 6 vs CAR 69% estwk 11 vs PIT 67% est
21
TB vs GB +3.5
37.9%Win
53.9%Costs you
0.59xField edge
0.2%Proj Pick %
0.0%Used
37.9% now and not needed later — but 53.9% worse than the board's best pick, which is the whole of the cost.
Still have them for:wk 8 vs ATL 57% estwk 15 vs NO 55% estwk 12 vs CAR 54% est
22
WAS vs IND +3.5
37.9%Win
53.9%Costs you
0.58xField edge
0.6%Proj Pick %
0.0%Used
37.9% now and not needed later — but 53.9% worse than the board's best pick, which is the whole of the cost.
Still have them for:wk 5 vs NYG 59% -2.5wk 15 vs ATL 56% estwk 13 @ TEN 52% est
23
JAX @ CIN +2.5
41.3%Win
55.6%Costs you
0.63xField edge
0.3%Proj Pick %
43.5%Used
41.3% now, but the plan wants them in week 12 (74.9%, Model). Using them here spends 55.6% of the best season still available.
Still have them for:wk 12 vs TEN 75% estwk 17 vs WAS 69% estwk 10 @ TEN 67% est
24
DAL @ HOU +3
39.6%Win
56.7%Costs you
0.60xField edge
1.0%Proj Pick %
1.1%Used
39.6% now, but the plan wants them in week 5 (79.9%, Market). Using them here spends 56.7% of the best season still available.
Still have them for:wk 5 vs TB 80% -9.5wk 11 vs TEN 74% estwk 17 vs NYG 69% est
25
LV vs KC +4.5
34.6%Win
58.0%Costs you
0.54xField edge
0.2%Proj Pick %
7.4%Used
34.6% now and not needed later — but 58.0% worse than the board's best pick, which is the whole of the cost.
Still have them for:wk 16 vs TEN 58% estwk 12 @ CLE 56% est
26
DEN @ SF +3
39.6%Win
61.1%Costs you
0.61xField edge
0.2%Proj Pick %
0.3%Used
39.6% now, but the plan wants them in week 13 (84.3%, Model). Using them here spends 61.1% of the best season still available.
Still have them for:wk 13 vs MIA 84% estwk 11 vs LV 76% estwk 15 @ LV 68% est
27
LAC @ SEA +7
26.9%Win
67.3%Costs you
0.43xField edge
0.0%Proj Pick %
0.0%Used
26.9% now and not needed later — but 67.3% worse than the board's best pick, which is the whole of the cost.
Still have them for:wk 16 @ MIA 72% estwk 11 vs NYJ 69% estwk 14 @ LV 60% est
28
NE @ BUF +7
26.9%Win
68.6%Costs you
0.45xField edge
0.2%Proj Pick %
1.1%Used
26.9% now, but the plan wants them in week 18 (77.6%, Model). Using them here spends 68.6% of the best season still available.
Still have them for:wk 18 vs MIA 78% estwk 8 @ MIA 71% estwk 6 vs NYJ 68% est
29
MIA @ MIN +10.5
17.7%Win
78.4%Costs you
0.45xField edge
0.0%Proj Pick %
0.0%Used
17.7% now and not needed later — but 78.4% worse than the board's best pick, which is the whole of the cost.
No later spot above 50% — this is as good as they get.
30
TEN @ BAL +11.5
15.5%Win
81.1%Costs you
0.48xField edge
0.1%Proj Pick %
0.0%Used
15.5% now and not needed later — but 81.1% worse than the board's best pick, which is the whole of the cost.
Still have them for:wk 7 vs CLE 61% est

Optimal Projected Survivor Path

wk 4
MIN vs MIA
82%
wk 5
DAL vs TB
80%
wk 6
LA vs ARI
77% est
wk 7
HOU vs NYG
75% est
wk 8
CIN vs TEN
75% est
wk 9
DET @ MIA
77% est
wk 10
IND vs MIA
78% est
wk 11
KC vs ARI
74% est
wk 12
JAX vs TEN
75% est
wk 13
DEN vs MIA
84% est
wk 14
SEA vs NYG
78% est
wk 15
GB vs MIA
78% est
wk 16
BAL vs CLE
85% est
wk 17
BUF @ MIA
83% est
wk 18
NE vs MIA
78% est

2.61% chance of surviving with board above

25.4%of entries still alivethrough week 3
23.7%of them expected out in week 43% of the field's games are already final; the rest is this week's odds
wk 161.6%survived · entered
wk 256.6%survived · entered
wk 372.8%survived · entered

Each week's pick % is the share of the entries still playing that week, so the season figure is those weekly survival rates multiplied together. A tie counts as an elimination, which is the standard pool rule. Weeks you entered in the pick % file are measured; weeks left blank are projected from the closing lines, and a projection can only say the field was on whoever the odds liked.

Open the survivor board and enter the teams you have used

What these numbers mean

Costs you — how much of your best remaining season you spend by using this team now. It compares the best run of picks you could still make with the best one left after this team is gone, so a team is only expensive if a later week genuinely needs them and has nobody else. The three weeks listed on each row are what that number is made of.

Field edge — what share of the prize you expect to hold, against what an average entry holds. 1.00x is average. It counts the fact that everyone who picks the same team survives with you, so the popular team is worth less than its win % suggests and a quiet one is worth more. It needs a pick % to mean anything, and it is one week, not the season.

Pick % is the share of the field on each team, and the line above the board says where this week's came from. A week entered in the pick % file is used as entered; a week left blank is projected from the odds. Either way you can type over any of it with what your own pool is doing. A projection built from the odds can only re-rank what the odds already ranked — it cannot tell you the field is wrong about somebody. Real numbers can, which is the only reason the file exists.

Used — the share of entries still alive that have already picked this team in an earlier week, from the same pick % and results as the field numbers under the season path. Only survivors count: a team that lost took its pickers out with it. A high number means your remaining rivals cannot take that team again, so saving them for later is worth more to you than to the field.

Gamble Responsibly. 21+ Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at your book before betting. College Football betting trends by week and game.