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Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns

Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
HOU@CLE HOU -4.5 · O/U 39.5
HOU
Sunday 2026-11-15
1:00pm
FOX
54°F · wind 8 mph · 💧 13%
CLE
How to attack
HOU offense vs CLE defense
  • Run the ballMixedCLE ranks 26th vs the run (4.6 per carry). Woody Marks has 76% of the backs' carries lately (16 a game).
    • Without DT Mason Graham (wk 4, 5, 6): 4.0 per carry on 70 carries; with him 4.9 on 137; expected back
    • Woody Marks: 77 carries here, 3.5 per carry, 34% successful (league 4.0, 40%)
    • CLE allowed more than league average per carry in 7 of 8 games
    • David Montgomery: 52 carries here, 2.7 per carry, 25% successful (league 4.0, 40%)
    Angleno rush yds line posted yet for Woody Marks (the data leans over).
  • Quick game blunts the rushShakyC.J. Stroud is hit or sacked on only 11.9% of dropbacks (5th-fewest), which takes the edge off CLE's rush (16.2%, 9th-most).
    • Without DT Mason Graham (wk 4, 5, 6): 22% of dropbacks on 124 dropbacks; with him 12% on 178; expected back
    • HOU's QB hit or sacked on 8% of dropbacks the last 2 games, 13% before
    • CLE above the league hit-and-sack rate in 4 of 8 games
    • Last 2 games CLE hit or sacked the QB on 10% of dropbacks; 18% before
    Angleno completions line posted yet for C.J. Stroud (the data leans over). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
CLE offense vs HOU defense
  • Run inside, not outsideMixedHOU allows 4.3 per carry between the guards (32nd) but 2.7 outside the tackles (1st). Quinshon Judkins has 61% of the backs' carries lately (9 a game).
    • Without LB Henry To'oTo'o (wk 2, 3, 4, 5): 3.8 per carry on 61 carries; with him 4.9 on 57; expected back
    • Quinshon Judkins: 57 carries here, 3.7 per carry, 33% successful (league 3.8, 40%)
    • Two big plays make it (42 yds wk 7 vs NYG, 30 wk 7 vs NYG); without them 3.8 (league 3.8)
    • HOU allowed more than league average per carry in 6 of 7 games
    Angleno rush yds line posted yet for Quinshon Judkins (the data leans over).
  • Throw to the wide receiversShakyHOU ranks 25th vs wide receivers in EPA per target: 63% caught, 8.8 yds per target, 196 per game. Best fits: Denzel Boston (25% of targets, 4 in the red zone) and KC Concepcion (18% of targets).
    • Without S Reed Blankenship (wk 7): 11.6 yds per target on 17 targets; with him 8.6 on 112; expected back
    • Denzel Boston on these targets: 53, 49% caught, 7.7 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
    • Two big plays make it (53 yds wk 4 vs DAL, 47 wk 7 vs NYG); without them 8.3 (league 8.1)
    • HOU allowed more than league average per target in 4 of 7 games
    Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Denzel Boston (the data leans over). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
  • Attack the deep rightShakyHOU gives up 16.6 yds per target to the deep right (31st, 18 targets). Denzel Boston has 5 targets there this season.
    • Without S Jalen Pitre (wk 6, 7): 12.4 yds per target on 5 targets; with him 18.2 on 13; expected back
    • Denzel Boston on these targets: 5, 20% caught, 5.6 yds each (league 40%, 11.3)
    • Mostly one game: wk 1 vs BUF, 34.5 yds per target on 4
    • HOU allowed more than league average per target in 3 of 5 games
    Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Denzel Boston (the data leans over). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
Motivation & storylines
  • StakesHOU 2-5, 2nd in the AFC South (3 back); CLE 5-3, 3rd in the AFC North (1 back).
  • HistoryLast met 2023 Wild Card round: HOU 45-14 at HOU -- first meeting since 2023 -- HOU ended CLE's season.
  • RevengeCLE vs a former team: Tytus Howard (T, HOU 2019-25); Maliek Collins (DT, HOU 2021-23); Deshaun Watson (QB, HOU 2017-20).
  • SpotHOU lost 27-21 vs NYG as a 10-point favorite last week; CLE lost 27-6 at PIT last week.
@ LACLast week@ NO
vs INDNext weekBye
–OFF plays last game–
–DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
3,870 mi20th15th2,079 mi
Stats from games played through week 8
EPA rank · adjusted
16thOffense25th
18thDefense13th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
−4.5 HOU vs CLE +4.5
pass rush w/o blitz4th32ndprotection vs no blitz
pass rush*9th31stpass protection*
third-down DEF13th30ththird-down OFF
play-action DEF8th25thplay-action OFFPA rate 27th
pass DEF5th21stpass OFF
run blocking*24th7thrun DEF up front*
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
−4.5 HOU vs CLE +4.5
HOU OFF vs CLE DEF
OFF vs the blitz2nd15thblitzing DEFblitz rate 26th
big-play OFF16th28thbig-play DEF
third-down OFF24th11ththird-down DEF
OFF vs zone*17th9thzone coverage*zone rate 32nd
pass OFF14th7thpass DEF
early-down OFF18th11thearly-down DEF
play-action OFFPA rate 21st9th2ndplay-action DEF
run OFF26th27thrun DEF
pass protection*10th8thpass rush*
protection vs no blitz15th14thpass rush w/o blitz
OFF vs man*14th19thman coverage*man rate 1st
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 6th12th11thDEF vs 11 personnel*
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 20th22nd21stDEF vs 12 personnel*
HOU DEF vs CLE OFF
run DEF up front*12th25thrun blocking*
early-down DEF4th12thearly-down OFF
zone coverage*zone rate 10th7th14thOFF vs zone*
run DEF23rd24thrun OFF
big-play DEF26th24thbig-play OFF
blitzing DEFblitz rate 24th21st23rdOFF vs the blitz
man coverage*man rate 23rd24th29thOFF vs man*
DEF vs 11 personnel*15th17th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 3rd
DEF vs 12 personnel*11th12th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 29th
Pace & tendencies
28.9s4thSeconds between snaps9th29.7s
64.717thPlays per game20th63.5
+1.2%7thPass rate over expected13th-0.2%
5%19thNo-huddle rate21st5%
67%9thShotgun rate1st78%
56%20thMotion rate21st55%
21%21stPlay-action rate27th18%
2.87s16thTime to throw*9th3.02s
69%6th11 personnel*3rd74%
21%20th12 personnel*29th13%
26%24thDEF blitz rate26th25%
17%23rdDEF man rate*1st50%
65.913thPlays faced per game20th64.0
Over / Under
3 trends

Run your own query on this matchup

Every other game this week: Week 10 2026 trends.

Gamble Responsibly. 21+ Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at your book before betting. College Football betting trends by week and game. * Stats marked with an asterisk (pressure, run blocking, man/zone coverage, time to throw, personnel): Sharp Football Analysis.