Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
KC@
ATL
KC -3 · O/U 46.5
KCSunday 2026-11-15
1:00pm
CBS
Indoors
ATLHow to attack
KC offense vs ATL defense- Run inside, not outsideMixedATL allows 4.4 per carry between the guards (29th) but 4.8 outside the tackles (7th). Kenneth Walker III has 95% of the backs' carries lately (18 a game).
- Kenneth Walker III: 81 carries here, 4.7 per carry, 41% successful (league 3.8, 40%)
- Two big plays make it (47 yds wk 5 vs BAL, 30 wk 7 vs SF); without them 3.8 (league 3.8)
- ATL allowed more than league average per carry in 3 of 8 games
- Emmett Johnson: 15 carries here, 4.1 per carry, 53% successful (league 3.8, 40%)
Angleno rush yds line posted yet for Kenneth Walker III (the data leans over). - Lean on play actionKC uses play action on 30.6% of dropbacks (4th-most) and ranks 2nd in EPA on it; ATL ranks 28th against it.Angleno pass yds line posted yet for Patrick Mahomes (the data leans over).
ATL offense vs KC defense- Tough spot for Drake LondonSolidKC ranks 3rd vs wide receivers (7.0 yds per target). He gets 29% of ATL's targets.
- Without DB Chamarri Conner (wk 1, 2, 3): 6.1 yds per target on 57 targets; with him 7.8 on 64; expected back
- Drake London on these targets: 62, 63% caught, 10.3 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
- KC allowed less than league average per target in 5 of 7 games
- Last 2 games KC allowed 8.4 per target; 6.4 before
AngleDrake London under 78.5 rec yds (-114 FD); Drake London under 5.5 catches (+104 DK). - Time to throw for Michael Penix Jr.MixedKC hits or sacks the QB on only 11.8% of dropbacks (26th-most).
- Without DT Chris Jones (wk 6): 17% of dropbacks on 48 dropbacks; with him 11% on 239; expected back
- ATL's QB hit or sacked on 0% of dropbacks the last 2 games, 13% before
- KC below the league hit-and-sack rate in 4 of 7 games
- Last 2 games KC hit or sacked the QB on 6% of dropbacks; 14% before
AngleMichael Penix Jr. over 219.5 pass yds (-114 FD).
Motivation & storylines
- StakesKC 5-2, 2nd in the AFC West (0.5 back); ATL 3-5, 2nd in the NFC South (0.5 back).
- HistoryLast met 2024 wk 3: KC 22-17 at ATL -- first meeting since 2024.
- RevengeATL vs a former team: Jawaan Taylor (T, KC 2023-25); Mike Hughes (CB, KC 2021).
vs NYJLast weekint'l CIN
vs ARINext weekBye
–OFF plays last game–
–DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
1,797 mi13th28th9,459 mi
Exclude KC weeks
Exclude ATL weeks
Stats from games played through week 8
EPA rank · adjusted
5thOffense26th
17thDefense8th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
−3 KC vs ATL +3
vs ATL +3play-action OFFPA rate 4th2nd28thplay-action DEF
DEF vs 11 personnel*5th29th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 21st
run DEF up front*8th28thrun blocking*
run blocking*4th22ndrun DEF up front*
travel1,797 mi, 21 days13th28thtravel9,459 mi, 21 days
pass rush*31st5thpass protection*
protection vs no blitz30th9thpass rush w/o blitz
pass rush w/o blitz21st4thprotection vs no blitz
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
−3 KC vs ATL +3
vs ATL +3KC OFF vs ATL DEF
run OFF4th16thrun DEF
big-play OFF4th16thbig-play DEF
pass protection*15th2ndpass rush*
pass OFF8th8thpass DEF
third-down OFF14th15ththird-down DEF
early-down OFF6th8thearly-down DEF
OFF vs the blitz6th6thblitzing DEFblitz rate 25th
OFF vs man*9th12thman coverage*man rate 10th
OFF vs zone*10th12thzone coverage*zone rate 23rd
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 22nd5th8thDEF vs 11 personnel*
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 5th15th20thDEF vs 12 personnel*
KC DEF vs ATL OFF
third-down DEF14th27ththird-down OFF
man coverage*man rate 11th23rd30thOFF vs man*
DEF vs 12 personnel*7th14th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 7th
pass DEF20th26thpass OFF
run DEF7th8thrun OFF
big-play DEF11th15thbig-play OFF
early-down DEF9th13thearly-down OFF
blitzing DEFblitz rate 23rd27th22ndOFF vs the blitz
play-action DEF24th22ndplay-action OFFPA rate 18th
zone coverage*zone rate 22nd30th29thOFF vs zone*
Pace & tendencies
30.0s14thSeconds between snaps31st32.7s
62.623rdPlays per game26th61.0
+5.7%3rdPass rate over expected31st-11.8%
1%31stNo-huddle rate22nd5%
62%17thShotgun rate27th52%
58%16thMotion rate15th59%
31%4thPlay-action rate18th22%
2.70s24thTime to throw*31st2.57s
55%22nd11 personnel*21st56%
33%5th12 personnel*7th32%
26%23rdDEF blitz rate25th25%
25%11thDEF man rate*10th25%
66.710thPlays faced per game8th68.1
KC
away
2 ATS trends
KC-3
ATSfadeFading home dogs of 3 points or fewer, on 4,500+ miles of travel in three weeks
60.0%
win rate
75-50-5
record
+14.5%
roi
+0.8ppg
avg cover
📈
WLWLWWWWLWWWWWWLLWLW
last 20: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg cover +2.1 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg cover +2.1 ppg
since 2003: 75-50-5 (60.0%) · avg cover +0.8 ppg
KC-3
ATSMahomes as a fav of 3 points or fewer
64.3%
win rate
18-10
record
+22.7%
roi
+2.0ppg
avg cover
📈
LWWWWWLWWLLWWWWLLWLW
last 20: 13-7 (65.0%) · avg cover +2.1 ppg
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg cover +0.9 ppg
since 2003: 18-10 (64.3%) · avg cover +2.0 ppg
Over / Under
3 trends
Under 46.5
Under
Andy Reid as a fav
57.4%
win rate
175-130-8
record
+9.5%
roi
+1.1ppg
avg under
📈
LLWLWWWWWWLWWWWWLWLW
last 20: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg under +3.3 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg under +3.2 ppg
since 2003: 175-130-8 (57.4%) · avg under +1.1 ppg
Over 46.5
Over
Patrick Mahomes indoors
70.0%
win rate
14-6-1
record
+33.6%
roi
+3.1ppg
avg over
📈
LWWWWWLWWLWLWPLLWWWW
last 20: 13-6-1 (68.4%) · avg over +2.8 ppg
last 10: 6-3-1 (66.7%) · avg over +3.4 ppg
since 2003: 14-6-1 (70.0%) · avg over +3.1 ppg
Under 46.5
Under
Kevin Stefanski as a home dog of 3 points or fewer
72.7%
win rate
8-3-1
record
+38.8%
roi
+0.4ppg
avg under
📈
LWLPWWWWWWLW
last 10: 7-2-1 (77.8%) · avg under +3.8 ppg
since 2003: 8-3-1 (72.7%) · avg under +0.4 ppg
- Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Surface · turf
Run your own query on this matchup
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Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the
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