Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
LAC@
BAL
LAC -1.5 · O/U 38.5
LACMonday 2026-11-16
8:15pm
ESPN
52°F · wind 3 mph · 💧 13%
BALHow to attack
LAC offense vs BAL defense- Protect Justin HerbertMixedLAC lets its QB get hit or sacked on 17.7% of dropbacks (6th-most); BAL gets there on 16.1% (8th-most). His EPA per dropback falls from -0.06 clean to -1.21 when hit.
- LAC's QB hit or sacked on 14% of dropbacks the last 2 games, 19% before
- BAL above the league hit-and-sack rate in 6 of 8 games
- Last 2 games BAL hit or sacked the QB on 14% of dropbacks; 17% before
Angleno pass yds line posted yet for Justin Herbert (the data leans under). - Play action is less of a weapon hereLAC uses it on 25.4% of dropbacks (10th-most); BAL ranks 1st against it.Angleno pass yds line posted yet for Justin Herbert (the data leans under).
- Attack the deep leftMixedBAL gives up 13.7 yds per target to the deep left (28th, 15 targets). Quentin Johnston has 4 targets there this season.
- Quentin Johnston on these targets: 4, 25% caught, 14.2 yds each (league 40%, 11.1)
- Two big plays make it (49 yds wk 3 vs DAL, 40 wk 8 vs BUF); without them 9.0 (league 11.1)
Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Quentin Johnston (the data leans over).
Motivation & storylines
- StakesLAC 0-7, 4th in the AFC West (5.5 back); BAL 4-4, 4th in the AFC North (2 back).
- HistoryLast met 2024 wk 12: BAL 30-23 at LAC -- first meeting since 2024.
- RevengeLAC vs a former team: Charlie Kolar (TE, BAL 2025); Tony Jefferson (S, BAL 2017-19).
- SpotBAL has 3 more days of rest; BAL lost 36-10 at BUF last week.
vs HOULast weekvs JAX
vs NYJNext week@ CAR
–OFF plays last game–
–DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
2,322 mi18th5th533 mi
Exclude LAC weeks
Exclude BAL weeks
Stats from games played through week 8
EPA rank · adjusted
32ndOffense20th
6thDefense16th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
−1.5 LAC vs BAL +1.5
vs BAL +1.5third-down DEF3rd28ththird-down OFF
man coverage*man rate 19th3rd19thOFF vs man*
play-action OFFPA rate 10th32nd1stplay-action DEF
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 28th31st9thDEF vs 12 personnel*
OFF vs zone*30th14thzone coverage*zone rate 18th
protection vs no blitz27th12thpass rush w/o blitz
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
−1.5 LAC vs BAL +1.5
vs BAL +1.5LAC OFF vs BAL DEF
pass OFF32nd18thpass DEF
run OFF31st17thrun DEF
OFF vs the blitz27th13thblitzing DEFblitz rate 13th
early-down OFF32nd19thearly-down DEF
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 30th30th18thDEF vs 11 personnel*
run blocking*21st10thrun DEF up front*
big-play OFF21st15thbig-play DEF
third-down OFF16th10ththird-down DEF
pass protection*18th18thpass rush*
OFF vs man*25th26thman coverage*man rate 15th
LAC DEF vs BAL OFF
zone coverage*zone rate 14th6th18thOFF vs zone*
pass rush w/o blitz6th16thprotection vs no blitz
pass rush*16th25thpass protection*
early-down DEF21st11thearly-down OFF
big-play DEF17th9thbig-play OFF
run DEF21st14thrun OFF
pass DEF12th13thpass OFF
run DEF up front*19th19thrun blocking*
blitzing DEFblitz rate 22nd5th9thOFF vs the blitz
play-action DEF5th3rdplay-action OFFPA rate 9th
DEF vs 11 personnel*25th21st11-personnel OFF*11 rate 23rd
DEF vs 12 personnel*14th10th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 8th
Pace & tendencies
31.2s24thSeconds between snaps28th31.6s
65.114thPlays per game24th62.0
-11.9%32ndPass rate over expected19th-1.7%
5%20thNo-huddle rate27th3%
67%8thShotgun rate22nd57%
74%3rdMotion rate6th65%
25%10thPlay-action rate9th26%
2.96s12thTime to throw*7th3.07s
44%30th11 personnel*23rd54%
15%28th12 personnel*8th31%
27%22ndDEF blitz rate13th33%
19%19thDEF man rate*15th22%
61.427thPlays faced per game18th64.8
LAC
away
3 ATS trends
LAC-1.5
ATSHarbaugh as a fav, in primetime
70.0%
win rate
14-6
record
+33.6%
roi
+7.2ppg
avg cover
📈
WWLWWWWWWLLWLLLWWWWW
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg cover +2.4 ppg
since 2003: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg cover +7.2 ppg
LAC-1.5
ATSAs a fav of 3 points or fewer, after crossing 3+ time zones east, outdoors
61.5%
win rate
32-20-1
record
+17.5%
roi
+2.4ppg
avg cover
📈
WLWLWLWWWWWWWLWWWWLL
last 20: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg cover +5.9 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg cover +4.2 ppg
since 2003: 32-20-1 (61.5%) · avg cover +2.4 ppg
LAC-1.5
ATSHerbert in primetime
64.3%
win rate
18-10
record
+22.7%
roi
+3.8ppg
avg cover
📈
WWWWLLWWLLWLWWWWWWWL
last 20: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg cover +4.8 ppg
last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg cover +5.7 ppg
since 2003: 18-10 (64.3%) · avg cover +3.8 ppg
BAL
home
1 ATS trend
BAL+1.5
ATSJackson as a dog
75.0%
win rate
12-4-1
record
+43.2%
roi
+6.0ppg
avg cover
📈
WWWLWWWLWWWPWWWLL
last 10: 6-3-1 (66.7%) · avg cover +1.8 ppg
since 2003: 12-4-1 (75.0%) · avg cover +6.0 ppg
Over / Under
3 trends
Under 38.5
Under
With a team crossing 3+ time zones, in primetime
58.3%
win rate
60-43-4
record
+11.2%
roi
+1.4ppg
avg under
📈
WLLLPWLWLWWWWLLWWWLW
last 20: 11-8-1 (57.9%) · avg under +3.1 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg under +5.5 ppg
since 2003: 60-43-4 (58.3%) · avg under +1.4 ppg
Under 38.5
Under
Jim Harbaugh on the road
59.6%
win rate
34-23-1
record
+13.9%
roi
+3.0ppg
avg under
📈
WWWWLLLWWLLWWLWWWLWW
last 20: 13-7 (65.0%) · avg under +5.8 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg under +8.1 ppg
since 2003: 34-23-1 (59.6%) · avg under +3.0 ppg
Over 38.5
Overcooling
With a team crossing 3+ time zones, with a total under 42
58.1%
win rate
143-103-4
record
+11.0%
roi
+3.1ppg
avg over
📈
WLLLWWWWLWWWLLLLLWLW
last 20: 10-10 (50.0%) · avg over +1.7 ppg
last 10: 4-6 (40.0%) · avg over +1.9 ppg
since 2003: 143-103-4 (58.1%) · avg over +3.1 ppg
- M&T Bank Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
- Surface · grass
Run your own query on this matchup
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