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Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
MIA@IND IND -2.5 · O/U 43.5
MIA
Sunday 2026-11-15
1:00pm
CBS
Indoors
IND
How to attack
MIA offense vs IND defense
  • Run the ballMixedIND ranks 29th vs the run (4.6 per carry). Ollie Gordon II has 79% of the backs' carries lately (21 a game).
    • Without DT DeForest Buckner (wk 8): 5.5 per carry on 32 carries; with him 4.5 on 168; expected back
    • Ollie Gordon II: 91 carries here, 4.5 per carry, 36% successful (league 4.0, 40%)
    • IND allowed more than league average per carry in 5 of 8 games
    • De'Von Achane: 34 carries here, 3.7 per carry, 35% successful (league 4.0, 40%)
    Angleno rush yds line posted yet for Ollie Gordon II (the data leans over).
IND offense vs MIA defense
  • Throw to the backsMixedMIA ranks 31st vs backs in EPA per target: 86% caught, 6.6 yds per target, 41 per game. Best fits: Jonathan Taylor (15% of targets).
    • Jonathan Taylor on these targets: 31, 68% caught, 6.5 yds each (league 78%, 5.6)
    • Two big plays make it (41 yds wk 7 vs NYJ, 21 wk 2 vs SF); without them 5.4 (league 5.6)
    • MIA allowed more than league average per target in 3 of 7 games
    Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Jonathan Taylor (the data leans over).
  • Get the tight end involvedShakyMIA ranks 31st vs tight ends in EPA per target: 87% caught, 8.8 yds per target, 69 per game. Best fits: Tyler Warren (18% of targets).
    • Tyler Warren on these targets: 46, 74% caught, 5.0 yds each (league 72%, 7.2)
    • MIA allowed more than league average per target in 4 of 7 games
    • Last 2 games MIA allowed 6.8 per target; 9.5 before
    Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Tyler Warren (the data leans over). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
  • Run inside, not outsideMixedMIA allows 4.0 per carry between the guards (27th) but 4.4 outside the tackles (11th). Jonathan Taylor has 56% of the backs' carries lately (16 a game).
    • Without DE Chop Robinson (wk 2): 3.0 per carry on 16 carries; with him 4.1 on 110; expected back
    • Jonathan Taylor: 57 carries here, 3.4 per carry, 39% successful (league 3.8, 40%)
    • Two big plays make it (20 yds wk 8 vs NE, 18 wk 1 vs LV); without them 3.8 (league 3.8)
    • MIA allowed more than league average per carry in 3 of 7 games
    Angleno rush yds line posted yet for Jonathan Taylor (the data leans over).
Motivation & storylines
  • StakesMIA 1-6, 4th in the AFC East (5 back); IND 2-6, 3rd in the AFC South (3.5 back).
  • HistoryLast met 2025 wk 1: IND 33-8 at IND.
  • RevengeMIA vs a former team: Julius Brents (CB, IND 2023).
  • SpotIND lost 42-7 at JAX last week.
vs DETLast weekvs DAL
@ BUFNext week@ HOU
–OFF plays last game–
–DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
1,013 mi7th9th1,400 mi
Stats from games played through week 8
EPA rank · adjusted
23rdOffense30th
30thDefense22nd
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+2.5 MIA vs IND −2.5
run DEF30th5thrun OFF
third-down DEF31st13ththird-down OFF
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
+2.5 MIA vs IND −2.5
MIA OFF vs IND DEF
run blocking*11th24thrun DEF up front*
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 17th13th22ndDEF vs 11 personnel*
OFF vs the blitz16th24thblitzing DEFblitz rate 31st
big-play OFF13th20thbig-play DEF
protection vs no blitz13th19thpass rush w/o blitz
pass OFF23rd13thpass DEF
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 31st13th3rdDEF vs 12 personnel*
third-down OFF11th4ththird-down DEF
early-down OFF29th23rdearly-down DEF
run OFF22nd26thrun DEF
pass protection*29th25thpass rush*
play-action OFFPA rate 14th27th26thplay-action DEF
OFF vs man*11th14thman coverage*man rate 9th
OFF vs zone*25th23rdzone coverage*zone rate 24th
MIA DEF vs IND OFF
big-play DEF14th27thbig-play OFF
pass rush*15th26thpass protection*
zone coverage*zone rate 9th22nd32ndOFF vs zone*
DEF vs 12 personnel*29th18th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 6th
blitzing DEFblitz rate 29th32nd24thOFF vs the blitz
pass rush w/o blitz15th9thprotection vs no blitz
pass DEF31st30thpass OFF
early-down DEF29th24thearly-down OFF
run DEF up front*18th16thrun blocking*
play-action DEF32nd29thplay-action OFFPA rate 5th
man coverage*man rate 24th29th28thOFF vs man*
DEF vs 11 personnel*24th20th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 19th
Pace & tendencies
31.8s30thSeconds between snaps23rd31.2s
60.030thPlays per game10th65.9
-8.7%29thPass rate over expected20th-2.1%
3%28thNo-huddle rate25th4%
58%21stShotgun rate15th64%
75%2ndMotion rate13th62%
23%14thPlay-action rate5th28%
3.21s2ndTime to throw*20th2.78s
59%17th11 personnel*19th58%
10%31st12 personnel*6th32%
24%29thDEF blitz rate31st21%
16%24thDEF man rate*9th28%
59.930thPlays faced per game31st59.5
IND home 2 ATS trends
Over / Under
1 trend

Run your own query on this matchup

Every other game this week: Week 10 2026 trends.

Gamble Responsibly. 21+ Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at your book before betting. College Football betting trends by week and game. * Stats marked with an asterisk (pressure, run blocking, man/zone coverage, time to throw, personnel): Sharp Football Analysis.