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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
MIN@GB GB -2.5 · O/U 41.5
MIN
Sunday 2026-11-15
1:00pm
FOX
52°F · wind 12 mph · 💧 16%
GB
How to attack
MIN offense vs GB defense
  • Run outside, not insideShakyGB allows 4.8 per carry outside the tackles (29th) but 2.7 between the guards (3rd). Aaron Jones has 48% of the backs' carries lately (13 a game).
    • Without LB Edgerrin Cooper (wk 5, 6, 7, 8): 3.9 per carry on 59 carries; with him 5.8 on 60; expected back
    • Aaron Jones: 50 carries here, 5.5 per carry, 42% successful (league 4.6, 41%)
    • Two big plays make it (55 yds wk 3 vs ATL, 31 wk 3 vs ATL); without them 4.2 (league 4.6)
    • Mostly one game: wk 3 vs ATL, 8.0 per carry on 25
    Angleno rush yds line posted yet for Aaron Jones (the data leans over). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
  • Tough spot for Justin JeffersonMixedGB ranks 2nd vs wide receivers (7.0 yds per target). He gets 30% of MIN's targets.
    • Justin Jefferson on these targets: 40, 70% caught, 8.4 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
    • GB allowed less than league average per target in 6 of 8 games
    • Last 2 games GB allowed 8.9 per target; 6.4 before
    Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Justin Jefferson (the data leans under).
  • Blitz troubleGB blitzes on 33.8% of dropbacks (12th-most); MIN ranks 29th against the blitz.
    Angleno pass yds line posted yet for Kyler Murray (the data leans under).
GB offense vs MIN defense
  • Don't lean on the runMixedMIN ranks 4th vs the run (4.3 per carry); GB's run game ranks 31st (2.9).
    • Josh Jacobs: 32 carries here, 2.3 per carry, 38% successful (league 4.0, 40%)
    • MIN allowed less than league average per carry in 4 of 7 games
    • MarShawn Lloyd: 57 carries here, 2.6 per carry, 32% successful (league 4.0, 40%)
    • Kaleb Johnson: 28 carries here, 3.7 per carry, 29% successful (league 4.0, 40%)
    AngleJosh Jacobs under 43.5 rush yds (-114 DK).
  • Red-zone stalls likelyGB scores touchdowns on 53.6% of red-zone trips (25th); MIN allows them on 26.7% (1st).
    • Trey Smack: 11 of 16 on field goals, 2 of 2 from 50+, long 59; missed in wk 3, 5, 7
    • MIN allowed TDs on 4 of 15 trips (1/4, 0/3, 0/2, 1/2, 1/1, 0/1, 1/2 by game)
    • GB scored TDs on 15 of 28 trips (1/4, 2/3, 2/4, 2/3, 2/3, 2/4, 1/4, 3/3 by game)
    Angleno FGs made line posted yet for Trey Smack (the data leans over).
Motivation & storylines
  • StakesDivision game. MIN leads the NFC North by 0.5; MIN 6-1; GB 5-3, 1.5 back.
  • HistoryLast met 2026 wk 1: MIN 39-22 at MIN.
  • History2025 series: Split (6-23 at GB, 3-16 at MIN).
  • RevengeMIN vs a former team: Eric Wilson (LB, GB 2024); Aaron Jones (RB, GB 2018-23).
vs BUFLast week@ NE
int'l SFNext weekBye
–OFF plays last game–
–DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
1,340 mi8th11th1,719 mi
Stats from games played through week 8
EPA rank · adjusted
29thOffense14th
1stDefense7th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+2.5 MIN vs GB −2.5
run DEF1st30thrun OFF
early-down DEF1st27thearly-down OFF
pass rush*1st21stpass protection*
DEF vs 12 personnel*4th23rd12-personnel OFF*12 rate 13th
pass DEF1st17thpass OFF
third-down DEF2nd17ththird-down OFF
early-down OFF31st6thearly-down DEF
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 16th32nd7thDEF vs 11 personnel*
OFF vs zone*24th1stzone coverage*zone rate 5th
pass OFF25th6thpass DEF
OFF vs the blitz29th10thblitzing DEFblitz rate 12th
big-play OFF19th3rdbig-play DEF
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
+2.5 MIN vs GB −2.5
MIN OFF vs GB DEF
pass protection*17th24thpass rush*
play-action OFFPA rate 1st18th7thplay-action DEF
run OFF29th19thrun DEF
run blocking*9th1strun DEF up front*
protection vs no blitz28th22ndpass rush w/o blitz
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 22nd25th19thDEF vs 12 personnel*
third-down OFF23rd26ththird-down DEF
OFF vs man*22nd22ndman coverage*man rate 28th
MIN DEF vs GB OFF
big-play DEF10th23rdbig-play OFF
run DEF up front*16th29thrun blocking*
DEF vs 11 personnel*2nd14th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 9th
blitzing DEFblitz rate 1st2nd12thOFF vs the blitz
pass rush w/o blitz3rd12thprotection vs no blitz
play-action DEF15th14thplay-action OFFPA rate 28th
man coverage*man rate 32nd7th2ndOFF vs man*
zone coverage*zone rate 1st11th15thOFF vs zone*
Pace & tendencies
31.5s26thSeconds between snaps8th29.6s
60.628thPlays per game15th64.9
-4.3%26thPass rate over expected8th+1.2%
6%14thNo-huddle rate6th9%
61%18thShotgun rate6th70%
52%26thMotion rate9th63%
34%1stPlay-action rate28th17%
3.08s6thTime to throw*32nd2.49s
59%16th11 personnel*9th63%
20%22nd12 personnel*13th25%
73%1stDEF blitz rate12th34%
6%32ndDEF man rate*28th15%
60.728thPlays faced per game6th69.0
MIN away 3 ATS trends · 1 🔥
GB home 1 ATS trend
Over / Under
3 trends

Run your own query on this matchup

Every other game this week: Week 10 2026 trends.

Gamble Responsibly. 21+ Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at your book before betting. College Football betting trends by week and game. * Stats marked with an asterisk (pressure, run blocking, man/zone coverage, time to throw, personnel): Sharp Football Analysis.