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New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions

Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
NEvsDET NE -1.5 · O/U 49.5
NE
Sunday 2026-11-15
9:30am
FOX
33°F · wind 11 mph · 💧 16%
DET
How to attack
NE offense vs DET defense
  • Get the tight end involvedMixedDET ranks 32nd vs tight ends in EPA per target: 76% caught, 8.6 yds per target, 98 per game. Best fits: Hunter Henry (19% of targets) and Eli Raridon (16% of targets).
    • Hunter Henry on these targets: 34, 85% caught, 9.6 yds each (league 72%, 7.2)
    • DET allowed more than league average per target in 4 of 7 games
    Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Hunter Henry (the data leans over).
  • Attack the deep rightMixedDET gives up 15.2 yds per target to the deep right (32nd, 24 targets). DeMario Douglas has 5 targets there this season.
    • Without CB Rock Ya-Sin (wk 4, 5): 11.8 yds per target on 9 targets; with him 24.0 on 6; expected back
    • DeMario Douglas on these targets: 5, 60% caught, 24.4 yds each (league 40%, 11.3)
    • Mostly one game: wk 1 vs NO, 28.8 yds per target on 5
    • DET allowed more than league average per target in 3 of 5 games
    Angleno rec yds line posted yet for DeMario Douglas (the data leans over).
  • Throw to the wide receiversShakyDET ranks 26th vs wide receivers in EPA per target: 65% caught, 8.1 yds per target, 177 per game. Best fits: DeMario Douglas (17% of targets).
    • Without CB Rock Ya-Sin (wk 4, 5): 7.8 yds per target on 52 targets; with him 10.7 on 41; expected back
    • DeMario Douglas on these targets: 37, 70% caught, 9.0 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
    • Two big plays make it (51 yds wk 8 vs MIN, 47 wk 1 vs NO); without them 7.5 (league 8.1)
    • DET allowed more than league average per target in 4 of 7 games
    Angleno rec yds line posted yet for DeMario Douglas (the data leans over). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
DET offense vs NE defense
  • Throw to the wide receiversMixedNE ranks 28th vs wide receivers in EPA per target: 69% caught, 8.7 yds per target, 152 per game. Best fits: Amon-Ra St. Brown (34% of targets, 4 in the red zone) and Jameson Williams (24% of targets, 6 in the red zone).
    • Amon-Ra St. Brown on these targets: 76, 70% caught, 7.6 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
    • Two big plays make it (58 yds wk 7 vs CHI, 51 wk 4 vs BUF); without them 8.0 (league 8.1)
    • NE allowed more than league average per target in 4 of 8 games
    • Last 2 games NE allowed 11.5 per target; 7.9 before
    Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Amon-Ra St. Brown (the data leans over).
  • Beat the blitzNE blitzes on 37.2% of dropbacks (9th-most); DET ranks 3rd in EPA against the blitz.
    Angleno pass yds line posted yet for Jared Goff (the data leans over).
  • Lean on play actionDET uses play action on 31.6% of dropbacks (3rd-most) and ranks 4th in EPA on it; NE ranks 31st against it.
    Angleno pass yds line posted yet for Jared Goff (the data leans over).
Motivation & storylines
  • StakesNE 5-3, 2nd in the AFC East (1.5 back); DET 5-2, 3rd in the NFC North (1 back).
  • HistoryLast met 2022 wk 5: NE 29-0 at NE -- first meeting since 2022.
  • RevengeNE vs a former team: Carlton Davis (CB, DET 2024).
vs GBLast week@ MIA
ByeNext weekvs TB
–OFF plays last game–
–DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
6,312 mi25th26th6,603 mi
Stats from games played through week 8
EPA rank · adjusted
9thOffense6th
12thDefense31st
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
−1.5 NE vs DET +1.5
pass OFF3rd29thpass DEF
big-play OFF5th29thbig-play DEF
OFF vs zone*8th31stzone coverage*zone rate 17th
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 14th6th29thDEF vs 11 personnel*
third-down OFF10th27ththird-down DEF
play-action DEF31st4thplay-action OFFPA rate 3rd
zone coverage*zone rate 31st25th6thOFF vs zone*
pass protection*28th12thpass rush*
early-down DEF17th2ndearly-down OFF
DEF vs 11 personnel*16th1st11-personnel OFF*11 rate 24th
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
−1.5 NE vs DET +1.5
NE OFF vs DET DEF
OFF vs the blitz8th20thblitzing DEFblitz rate 21st
early-down OFF15th25thearly-down DEF
run blocking*22nd31strun DEF up front*
OFF vs man*8th17thman coverage*man rate 16th
run OFF25th12thrun DEF
play-action OFFPA rate 24th28th20thplay-action DEF
protection vs no blitz7th8thpass rush w/o blitz
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 16th19th15thDEF vs 12 personnel*
NE DEF vs DET OFF
third-down DEF9th19ththird-down OFF
pass DEF17th5thpass OFF
blitzing DEFblitz rate 9th12th3rdOFF vs the blitz
pass rush w/o blitz26th19thprotection vs no blitz
big-play DEF9th3rdbig-play OFF
pass rush*7th1stpass protection*
run DEF9th7thrun OFF
run DEF up front*6th7thrun blocking*
man coverage*man rate 2nd2nd4thOFF vs man*
DEF vs 12 personnel*6th9th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 3rd
Pace & tendencies
31.8s29thSeconds between snaps10th29.7s
63.619thPlays per game5th68.4
-0.3%14thPass rate over expected25th-3.9%
0%32ndNo-huddle rate15th6%
59%19thShotgun rate31st47%
57%19thMotion rate25th53%
21%24thPlay-action rate3rd32%
3.25s1stTime to throw*22nd2.75s
60%14th11 personnel*24th53%
24%16th12 personnel*3rd37%
37%9thDEF blitz rate21st27%
35%2ndDEF man rate*16th21%
61.626thPlays faced per game2nd70.0
NE 1 ATS trend
DET 2 ATS trends
Over / Under
3 trends

Run your own query on this matchup

Every other game this week: Week 10 2026 trends.

Gamble Responsibly. 21+ Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at your book before betting. College Football betting trends by week and game. * Stats marked with an asterisk (pressure, run blocking, man/zone coverage, time to throw, personnel): Sharp Football Analysis.