Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
PIT@
CIN
CIN -3.5 · O/U 47.5
PITSunday 2026-11-15
8:20pm
NBC
48°F · wind 4 mph · 💧 13%
CINHow to attack
PIT offense vs CIN defense- Get the tight end involvedMixedCIN ranks 29th vs tight ends in EPA per target: 73% caught, 9.3 yds per target, 89 per game. Best fits: Darnell Washington (14% of targets, 4 in the red zone).
- Without S Bryan Cook (wk 4): 11.0 yds per target on 10 targets; with him 8.6 on 48; expected back
- Darnell Washington on these targets: 28, 68% caught, 9.1 yds each (league 72%, 7.2)
- CIN allowed more than league average per target in 5 of 7 games
- Last 2 games CIN allowed 8.5 per target; 9.6 before
Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Darnell Washington (the data leans over). - Red-zone stalls likelyPIT scores touchdowns on 50.0% of red-zone trips (28th); CIN allows them on 41.7% (3rd).
- Chris Boswell: 18 of 23 on field goals, 4 of 7 from 50+, long 58; missed in wk 1, 2, 4, 6, 8
- CIN allowed TDs on 10 of 24 trips (2/4, 0/4, 1/3, 1/2, 3/4, 0/3, 3/4 by game)
- PIT scored TDs on 12 of 24 trips (1/2, 0/1, 1/3, 2/3, 2/2, 2/4, 1/4, 3/5 by game)
Angleno FGs made line posted yet for Chris Boswell (the data leans over). - Attack the short leftSolidCIN gives up 7.6 yds per target to the short left (30th, 62 targets). DK Metcalf has 17 targets there this season.
- DK Metcalf on these targets: 17, 41% caught, 2.2 yds each (league 70%, 5.9)
- CIN allowed more than league average per target in 6 of 7 games
- Last 2 games CIN allowed 8.3 per target; 7.2 before
Angleno rec yds line posted yet for DK Metcalf (the data leans over).
CIN offense vs PIT defense- Attack the deep rightMixedPIT gives up 16.8 yds per target to the deep right (29th, 16 targets). Tee Higgins has 10 targets there this season.
- Without CB Daylen Everette (wk 6, 7, 8): 17.2 yds per target on 5 targets; with him 10.5 on 4; expected back
- Tee Higgins on these targets: 10, 70% caught, 17.4 yds each (league 40%, 11.3)
AngleTee Higgins over 71.5 rec yds (-114 FD).
Motivation & storylines
- StakesDivision game. PIT leads the AFC North by 0.5; PIT 6-2; CIN 5-2, 0.5 back.
- HistoryLast met 2026 wk 3: PIT 30-27 at PIT.
- History2025 series: Split (31-33 at CIN, 12-34 at PIT).
- StreakPIT has won 4 straight.
- SpotPIT off a bye; PIT won 27-6 vs CLE last week; CIN won 43-36 vs TEN in overtime last week.
ByeLast weekint'l ATL
@ PHINext week@ WAS
58OFF plays last game–
69DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
257 mi3rd27th8,261 mi
Exclude PIT weeks
Exclude CIN weeks
Stats from games played through week 8
EPA rank · adjusted
17thOffense4th
9thDefense15th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+3.5 PIT vs CIN −3.5
vs CIN −3.5travel257 mi, 21 days3rd27thtravel8,261 mi, 21 days
run DEF up front*4th20thrun blocking*
DEF vs 12 personnel*26th2nd12-personnel OFF*12 rate 2nd
man coverage*man rate 27th28th6thOFF vs man*
OFF vs the blitz30th9thblitzing DEFblitz rate 32nd
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
+3.5 PIT vs CIN −3.5
vs CIN −3.5PIT OFF vs CIN DEF
third-down OFF15th28ththird-down DEF
play-action OFFPA rate 29th7th19thplay-action DEF
big-play OFF22nd32ndbig-play DEF
run blocking*6th14thrun DEF up front*
protection vs no blitz20th11thpass rush w/o blitz
OFF vs zone*27th18thzone coverage*zone rate 30th
pass protection*12th6thpass rush*
pass OFF28th26thpass DEF
run OFF3rd8thrun DEF
early-down OFF17th16thearly-down DEF
OFF vs man*26th21stman coverage*man rate 3rd
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 8th16th20thDEF vs 11 personnel*
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 14th28th23rdDEF vs 12 personnel*
PIT DEF vs CIN OFF
pass rush w/o blitz10th24thprotection vs no blitz
run DEF2nd15thrun OFF
pass DEF16th2ndpass OFF
pass rush*17th3rdpass protection*
blitzing DEFblitz rate 20th28th15thOFF vs the blitz
early-down DEF12th3rdearly-down OFF
big-play DEF5th7thbig-play OFF
third-down DEF6th1stthird-down OFF
play-action DEF21st21stplay-action OFFPA rate 31st
zone coverage*zone rate 6th5th5thOFF vs zone*
DEF vs 11 personnel*6th7th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 25th
Pace & tendencies
29.9s13thSeconds between snaps18th30.4s
64.915thPlays per game21st63.4
+1.8%5thPass rate over expected1st+7.0%
7%11thNo-huddle rate17th5%
66%10thShotgun rate2nd77%
48%30thMotion rate27th50%
17%29thPlay-action rate31st15%
2.63s28thTime to throw*27th2.64s
64%8th11 personnel*25th50%
25%14th12 personnel*2nd44%
27%20thDEF blitz rate32nd18%
15%27thDEF man rate*3rd33%
62.921stPlays faced per game11th66.0
PIT
away
2 ATS trends · 1 🔥
PIT+3.5
ATSfadeFading home teams, in a division game, on 4,500+ miles of travel in three weeks
59.3%
win rate
197-135-8
record
+13.3%
roi
+0.9ppg
avg cover
🔥
WLWLLLWWLLLWWWWWWWLL
last 20: 11-9 (55.0%) · avg cover -2.0 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg cover -0.4 ppg
since 2003: 197-135-8 (59.3%) · avg cover +0.9 ppg
PIT+3.5
ATSRodgers as a dog of more than 3 points
63.2%
win rate
24-14
record
+20.6%
roi
+2.0ppg
avg cover
📈
WWWLWWWWWLWLWLWWWWLW
last 20: 15-5 (75.0%) · avg cover +4.1 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg cover +1.9 ppg
since 2003: 24-14 (63.2%) · avg cover +2.0 ppg
CIN
home
4 ATS trends
CIN-3.5
ATSBurrow as a fav of more than 3 points
63.9%
win rate
23-13-2
record
+22.0%
roi
+2.3ppg
avg cover
📈
LLLWWWWWWWWLWWWLWLPL
last 20: 12-7-1 (63.2%) · avg cover +0.7 ppg
last 10: 5-4-1 (55.6%) · avg cover +1.3 ppg
since 2003: 23-13-2 (63.9%) · avg cover +2.3 ppg
CIN-3.5
ATSTaylor as a fav of more than 3 points
63.2%
win rate
24-14-2
record
+20.6%
roi
+2.3ppg
avg cover
📈
LLWWWWWWWWLWLWWLWLPL
last 20: 12-7-1 (63.2%) · avg cover +0.8 ppg
last 10: 4-5-1 (44.4%) · avg cover +0.4 ppg
since 2003: 24-14-2 (63.2%) · avg cover +2.3 ppg
CIN-3.5
ATSfadeFading McCarthy as a dog, in primetime
63.2%
win rate
24-14-2
record
+20.6%
roi
+2.3ppg
avg cover
📈
WLWWPWWWWLLWLWWLWWWL
last 20: 13-6-1 (68.4%) · avg cover +3.0 ppg
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg cover +3.5 ppg
since 2003: 24-14-2 (63.2%) · avg cover +2.3 ppg
CIN-3.5
ATSAgainst a team off a bye, on 4,500+ miles of travel in three weeks, in primetime
65.0%
win rate
13-7
record
+24.1%
roi
-0.8ppg
avg cover
📈
WWLWWLLWWWWWLWWWLLWL
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg cover -3.1 ppg
since 2003: 13-7 (65.0%) · avg cover -0.8 ppg
Over / Under
5 trends
Over 47.5
Over
Zac Taylor as a home fav
65.8%
win rate
25-13
record
+25.6%
roi
+5.3ppg
avg over
📈
LLWWWWLWWWWLWWWLLWLW
last 20: 13-7 (65.0%) · avg over +6.4 ppg
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg over +8.4 ppg
since 2003: 25-13 (65.8%) · avg over +5.3 ppg
Over 47.5
Over
Mike McCarthy as a road dog
60.8%
win rate
48-31-2
record
+16.0%
roi
+2.6ppg
avg over
📈
WLLLWLWLWWLLWLWLWWWL
last 20: 10-10 (50.0%) · avg over -3.4 ppg
last 10: 5-5 (50.0%) · avg over -0.3 ppg
since 2003: 48-31-2 (60.8%) · avg over +2.6 ppg
Over 47.5
Over
Joe Burrow as a fav of more than 3 points, outdoors
62.9%
win rate
22-13
record
+20.0%
roi
+5.3ppg
avg over
📈
WWLWWLLWWLWLWWLLWWWW
last 20: 13-7 (65.0%) · avg over +5.1 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg over +7.2 ppg
since 2003: 22-13 (62.9%) · avg over +5.3 ppg
Under 47.5
Under
Aaron Rodgers on the road, off a win, outdoors
60.4%
win rate
29-19
record
+15.3%
roi
+1.0ppg
avg under
📈
WLWLWWLWLLWWLWWLWWLL
last 20: 11-9 (55.0%) · avg under +0.5 ppg
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg under +0.9 ppg
since 2003: 29-19 (60.4%) · avg under +1.0 ppg
Under 47.5
Undercooling
With a team on 4,500+ miles of travel, in primetime
57.3%
win rate
169-126-6
record
+9.4%
roi
+1.0ppg
avg under
📈
WLWLWLLWLLWLLWLLWWLW
last 20: 9-11 (45.0%) · avg under -2.3 ppg
last 10: 5-5 (50.0%) · avg under +1.1 ppg
since 2003: 169-126-6 (57.3%) · avg under +1.0 ppg
- Paycor Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
- Surface · turf
Run your own query on this matchup
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