Washington at New York Giants
Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
WAS@
NYG
NYG -1.5 · O/U 44.5
WASThursday 2026-11-12
8:15pm
PRIME VIDEO
49°F · wind 4 mph · 💧 4%
NYGHow to attack
NYG offense vs WAS defense- Get the tight end involvedSolidWAS ranks 30th vs tight ends in EPA per target: 79% caught, 9.4 yds per target, 75 per game. Best fits: Isaiah Likely (21% of targets, 3 in the red zone).
- Without S Nick Cross (wk 3, 4, 5): 7.9 yds per target on 32 targets; with him 11.3 on 24; expected back
- Isaiah Likely on these targets: 63, 65% caught, 6.3 yds each (league 72%, 7.2)
- WAS allowed more than league average per target in 7 of 7 games
Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Isaiah Likely (the data leans over). - Blitz troubleWAS blitzes on 43.6% of dropbacks (2nd-most); NYG ranks 32nd against the blitz.Angleno pass yds line posted yet for J.J. McCarthy (the data leans under).
- Finish in the red zoneWAS allows touchdowns on 79.2% of red-zone trips (31st); NYG scores them on 66.7% (12th).
- WAS allowed TDs on 19 of 24 trips (2/3, 3/4, 4/5, 3/3, 3/3, 3/4, 1/2 by game)
- NYG scored TDs on 14 of 21 trips (4/4, 0/2, 0/2, 2/3, 3/3, 2/4, 3/3 by game)
Motivation & storylines
- StakesDivision game. NYG leads the NFC East by 2; WAS 2-4-1, 2 back; NYG 4-2-1.
- HistoryLast met 2026 wk 5: tied 27-27.
- History2025 series: WAS swept NYG (6-21 at WAS, 29-21 at NYG).
- SpotShort week for both; NYG won 27-21 at HOU as a 10-point underdog last week.
vs LALast week@ PHI
vs CINNext weekvs JAX
–OFF plays last game–
–DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
198 mi2nd19th3,016 mi
Exclude WAS weeks
Exclude NYG weeks
Stats from games played through week 8
EPA rank · adjusted
21stOffense18th
23rdDefense19th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+1.5 WAS vs NYG −1.5
vs NYG −1.5travel198 mi, 21 days2nd19thtravel3,016 mi, 21 days
blitzing DEFblitz rate 2nd17th32ndOFF vs the blitz
DEF vs 12 personnel*28th4th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 23rd
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 18th30th10thDEF vs 12 personnel*
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
+1.5 WAS vs NYG −1.5
vs NYG −1.5WAS OFF vs NYG DEF
run blocking*18th30thrun DEF up front*
protection vs no blitz23rd30thpass rush w/o blitz
big-play OFF18th24thbig-play DEF
third-down OFF32nd18ththird-down DEF
OFF vs man*17th4thman coverage*man rate 4th
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 7th22nd10thDEF vs 11 personnel*
OFF vs the blitz18th8thblitzing DEFblitz rate 3rd
pass OFF22nd14thpass DEF
run OFF20th22ndrun DEF
pass protection*24th27thpass rush*
early-down OFF16th15thearly-down DEF
play-action OFFPA rate 16th13th16thplay-action DEF
OFF vs zone*23rd28thzone coverage*zone rate 29th
WAS DEF vs NYG OFF
DEF vs 11 personnel*14th27th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 29th
run DEF up front*5th17thrun blocking*
big-play DEF13th20thbig-play OFF
play-action DEF11th17thplay-action OFFPA rate 25th
pass rush*26th14thpass protection*
third-down DEF24th12ththird-down OFF
pass rush w/o blitz27th18thprotection vs no blitz
pass DEF25th20thpass OFF
run DEF24th21strun OFF
early-down DEF27th25thearly-down OFF
man coverage*man rate 20th20th16thOFF vs man*
zone coverage*zone rate 13th20th22ndOFF vs zone*
Pace & tendencies
28.5s3rdSeconds between snaps19th30.6s
65.312thPlays per game5th68.4
+0.1%11thPass rate over expected28th-8.6%
8%9thNo-huddle rate10th7%
73%3rdShotgun rate16th62%
53%24thMotion rate31st47%
22%16thPlay-action rate25th20%
3.01s10thTime to throw*26th2.68s
65%7th11 personnel*29th44%
22%18th12 personnel*23rd19%
44%2ndDEF blitz rate3rd42%
18%20thDEF man rate*4th33%
65.415thPlays faced per game24th62.1
Over / Under
4 trends
Under 44.5
Under
Dan Quinn in primetime
66.7%
win rate
18-9-1
record
+27.3%
roi
+1.2ppg
avg under
📈
WWWWWWWWLWLWLWWWLLWW
last 20: 15-5 (75.0%) · avg under +2.6 ppg
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg under -0.1 ppg
since 2003: 18-9-1 (66.7%) · avg under +1.2 ppg
Over 44.5
Over
Jayden Daniels as a dog
68.8%
win rate
11-5
record
+31.3%
roi
+6.7ppg
avg over
📈
WWWWLWLWWLLWWWWL
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg over +4.2 ppg
since 2003: 11-5 (68.8%) · avg over +6.7 ppg
Under 44.5
Under
John Harbaugh as a home fav of 3 points or fewer, in primetime
70.0%
win rate
7-3
record
+33.6%
roi
+6.8ppg
avg under
📈
WWLLWLWWWW
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg under +6.8 ppg
since 2003: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg under +6.8 ppg
Under 44.5
Undercooling
In a division game, outdoors, with a spread of 3 points or fewer
55.3%
win rate
309-250-10
record
+5.5%
roi
+0.9ppg
avg under
📈
LWWWWLLLLLWLWLWLLLWL
last 20: 8-12 (40.0%) · avg under -1.4 ppg
last 10: 4-6 (40.0%) · avg under -2.0 ppg
since 2003: 309-250-10 (55.3%) · avg under +0.9 ppg
- MetLife Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
- Surface · turf
Run your own query on this matchup
Every other game this week: Week 10 2026 trends.
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Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the
closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at
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