New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

NE@BUF BUF -7 · O/U 48.5

Sunday 2026-10-04

1:00pm

CBS

67°F · wind 7 mph · 💧 0%

BUF

NE away 3 ATS trends

NE+7 ATS

Maye off a loss, outdoors

72.7%

win rate

8-3

record

+38.8%

roi

+4.4ppg

avg cover

📈

LWWLWWLWWWW

last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg cover +5.8 ppg since 2003: 8-3 (72.7%) · avg cover +4.4 ppg

NE+7 ATS

Vrabel off a loss

60.5%

win rate

26-17-4

record

+15.4%

roi

+0.8ppg

avg cover

📈

LPLPWWWLWLLWWPLWWWWW

last 20: 11-6-3 (64.7%) · avg cover +2.6 ppg last 10: 7-2-1 (77.8%) · avg cover +5.0 ppg since 2003: 26-17-4 (60.5%) · avg cover +0.8 ppg

NE+7 ATS

Early in the season, as a dog of more than 3 points, in a division game

55.4%

win rate

164-132-4

record

+5.8%

roi

+0.3ppg

avg cover

📈

WWLLLLWLWWLLWWWWLLWW

last 20: 11-9 (55.0%) · avg cover -1.1 ppg last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg cover -0.3 ppg since 2003: 164-132-4 (55.4%) · avg cover +0.3 ppg

BUF home 1 ATS trend

BUF-7 ATS

As a fav of more than 3 points, on under 500 miles of travel in three weeks, outdoors

56.1%

win rate

207-162-10

record

+7.1%

roi

+1.8ppg

avg cover

📈

WWWWLWWWLWLWLWWWLLWW

last 20: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg cover +6.5 ppg last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg cover +2.0 ppg since 2003: 207-162-10 (56.1%) · avg cover +1.8 ppg

Over / Under

3 trends

Over 48.5 Over

Mike Vrabel as a road dog of more than 3 points, off a loss

76.9%

win rate

10-3

record

+46.9%

roi

+1.7ppg

avg over

📈

WWLWWWWWLWWLW

last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg over +2.3 ppg since 2003: 10-3 (76.9%) · avg over +1.7 ppg

Over 48.5 Over

Drake Maye as a dog, off a loss

80.0%

win rate

8-2

record

+52.7%

roi

+3.0ppg

avg over

📈

WWLWWWLWWW

last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg over +3.0 ppg since 2003: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg over +3.0 ppg

Over 48.5 Over

Josh Allen as a home fav of more than 3 points, off a win

62.5%

win rate

20-12-1

record

+19.3%

roi

+3.5ppg

avg over

📈

LLWWWLWWWWWPLWWWLWWL

last 20: 13-6-1 (68.4%) · avg over +4.6 ppg last 10: 6-3-1 (66.7%) · avg over +3.6 ppg since 2003: 20-12-1 (62.5%) · avg over +3.5 ppg

Highmark Stadium
Roof · outdoors
Surface · turf

Run your own query on this matchup

Every other game this week: Week 4 2026 trends.

Gamble Responsibly. 21+ Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at your book before betting. College Football betting trends by week and game.