Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Final — CHI 31, ATL 23This game has been played. The records below were rebuilt afterwards, so they now include it.
CHI@
ATL
CHI -1.5 · O/U 51.5
CHISunday 2026-10-18
1:00pm
Indoors
ATLL 7-31 @ GBLast weekL 23-30 vs BAL
vs NENext weekvs SF
69OFF plays last game64
60DEF plays last game75
Miles flown, last 21 days
954 mi6th5th849 mi
Exclude CHI weeks
Exclude ATL weeks
EPA rank · adjusted
12thOffense20th
20thDefense8th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
−1.5 CHI
vs
ATL +1.5
vs
ATL +1.5run DEF28th2ndrun OFF
big-play DEF29th9thbig-play OFF
pass rush*19th3rdpass protection*
pass protection*16th1stpass rush*
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
−1.5 CHI
vs
ATL +1.5
vs
ATL +1.5CHI OFF vs ATL DEF
big-play OFF14th3rdbig-play DEF
pass OFF13th4thpass DEF
run OFF8th8thrun DEF
protection vs no blitz––pass rush w/o blitz
third-down OFF––third-down DEF
early-down OFF––early-down DEF
run blocking*––run DEF up front*
OFF vs the blitz––blitzing DEF
play-action OFF––play-action DEF
OFF vs man*––man coverage*
OFF vs zone*––zone coverage*
11-personnel OFF*––DEF vs 11 personnel*
12-personnel OFF*––DEF vs 12 personnel*
CHI DEF vs ATL OFF
pass DEF12th22ndpass OFF
pass rush w/o blitz––protection vs no blitz
third-down DEF––third-down OFF
early-down DEF––early-down OFF
run DEF up front*––run blocking*
blitzing DEF––OFF vs the blitz
play-action DEF––play-action OFF
man coverage*––OFF vs man*
zone coverage*––OFF vs zone*
DEF vs 11 personnel*––11-personnel OFF*
DEF vs 12 personnel*––12-personnel OFF*
CHI
away
2 ATS trends · 1 🔥
CHI-1.5
ATSfadeFading home teams, off an overtime game, indoors
64.9%
win rate
61-33-3
record
+23.9%
roi
+3.9ppg
avg cover
🔥
LWWLWWLLWWWWWWWWWLWW
last 20: 15-5 (75.0%) · avg cover +5.2 ppg
last 10: 9-1 (90.0%) · avg cover +8.0 ppg
since 2003: 61-33-3 (64.9%) · avg cover +3.9 ppg
CHI-1.5
ATSWilliams as a fav
71.4%
win rate
10-4-1
record
+36.4%
roi
+3.4ppg
avg cover
📈
WWWLWWLPWWLWLWW
last 10: 6-3-1 (66.7%) · avg cover +3.8 ppg
since 2003: 10-4-1 (71.4%) · avg cover +3.4 ppg
Over / Under
1 trend
Under 51.5
Under
Kevin Stefanski as a home dog
65.0%
win rate
13-7-2
record
+24.1%
roi
+2.6ppg
avg under
📈
LPWWWPWLWLWWWWLWLWWL
last 20: 12-6-2 (66.7%) · avg under +4.5 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg under +7.5 ppg
since 2003: 13-7-2 (65.0%) · avg under +2.6 ppg
- Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Roof · closed
Run your own query on this matchup
Every other game this week: Week 6 2026 trends.
Gamble Responsibly. 21+
Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the
closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at
your book before betting.
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