Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
CIN@
BAL
CIN -1.5 · O/U 48.5
CINSunday 2026-10-25
1:00pm
CBS
60°F · wind 5 mph · 💧 0%
BALHow to attack
CIN offense vs BAL defense- Protect Joe BurrowSolidCIN lets its QB get hit or sacked on 17.0% of dropbacks (6th-most); BAL gets there on 16.9% (8th-most). His EPA per dropback falls from +0.29 clean to -0.53 when hit.
- LB Tavius Robinson (5 starts) is Out this week (pectoral)
- BAL above the league hit-and-sack rate in 4 of 6 games
- Last 2 games BAL hit or sacked the QB on 19% of dropbacks; 16% before
AngleJoe Burrow under 262.5 pass yds (-112 DK); Joe Burrow over 0.5 INTs (-115 DK). - Throw to the wide receiversMixedBAL ranks 28th vs wide receivers in EPA per target: 67% caught, 8.8 yds per target, 176 per game. Best fits: Tee Higgins (22% of targets) and Ja'Marr Chase (20% of targets, 5 in the red zone).
- Without CB Marlon Humphrey (wk 4): 10.2 yds per target on 21 targets; with him 8.5 on 99; expected back
- Tee Higgins on these targets: 43, 63% caught, 9.8 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
- Two big plays make it (49 yds wk 3 vs DAL, 36 wk 5 vs ATL); without them 8.2 (league 8.1)
- S Jaylinn Hawkins (6 starts) is Out this week (knee)
AngleTee Higgins over 65.5 rec yds (-114 DK); Tee Higgins over 4.5 catches (-155 DK). - Run inside, not outsideShakyBAL allows 3.4 per carry between the guards (26th) but 4.0 outside the tackles (10th). Chase Brown has 58% of the backs' carries lately (12 a game).
- Without DL Nnamdi Madubuike (wk 1, 2): 4.2 per carry on 19 carries; with him 3.1 on 46; expected back
- Chase Brown: 49 carries here, 3.9 per carry, 37% successful (league 3.7, 40%)
- Two big plays make it (20 yds wk 5 vs ATL, 12 wk 1 vs IND); without them 3.0 (league 3.7)
- LB Tavius Robinson (5 starts) is Out this week (pectoral)
AngleChase Brown over 40.5 rush yds (-114 FD); Chase Brown over 10.5 carries (-129 DK). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
BAL offense vs CIN defense- Get the tight end involvedMixedCIN ranks 27th vs tight ends in EPA per target: 77% caught, 9.6 yds per target, 90 per game. Best fits: Mark Andrews (15% of targets, 4 in the red zone).
- Without S Bryan Cook (wk 4): 11.0 yds per target on 10 targets; with him 8.6 on 28; expected back
- Mark Andrews on these targets: 33, 70% caught, 5.5 yds each (league 72%, 7.0)
- CIN allowed more than league average per target in 3 of 5 games
Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Mark Andrews (the data leans over).
Key injuriesBAL Lamar Jackson QB (ankle) Questionable
Motivation & storylines
- StakesDivision game. AFC North is tied at the top; CIN 3-2, 0.5 back; BAL 4-2.
- HistoryLast met 2025 wk 15: BAL 24-0 at CIN.
- History2025 series: Split (32-14 at BAL, 24-0 at CIN).
- RevengeCIN vs a former team: Orlando Brown Jr. (T, BAL 2018-20); Joe Flacco (QB, BAL 2016-18).
- RevengeBAL vs a former team: Trey Hendrickson (LB, CIN 2021-25).
- SpotCIN off a bye; BAL lost 13-10 at CLE as a 3-point favorite last week.
ByeLast weekL 10-13 @ CLE
vs TENNext week@ BUF
62OFF plays last game57
65DEF plays last game63
Miles flown, last 21 days
2,305 mi19th14th1,768 mi
Exclude CIN weeks
Exclude BAL weeks
EPA rank · adjusted
9thOffense8th
17thDefense20th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
−1.5 CIN vs BAL +1.5
vs BAL +1.5pass rush*6th24thpass protection*
OFF vs man*8th25thman coverage*man rate 14th
pass protection*3rd19thpass rush*
big-play DEF32nd3rdbig-play OFF
play-action OFFPA rate 30th24th1stplay-action DEF
protection vs no blitz30th11thpass rush w/o blitz
early-down DEF20th2ndearly-down OFF
pass DEF21st4thpass OFF
man coverage*man rate 6th23rd7thOFF vs man*
run DEF up front*25th10thrun blocking*
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
−1.5 CIN vs BAL +1.5
vs BAL +1.5CIN OFF vs BAL DEF
third-down OFF1st11ththird-down DEF
pass OFF9th14thpass DEF
run OFF14th14thrun DEF
big-play OFF9th14thbig-play DEF
early-down OFF11th8thearly-down DEF
run blocking*14th12thrun DEF up front*
OFF vs the blitz18th14thblitzing DEFblitz rate 14th
OFF vs zone*15th15thzone coverage*zone rate 19th
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 30th12th17thDEF vs 11 personnel*
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 1st3rd5thDEF vs 12 personnel*
CIN DEF vs BAL OFF
DEF vs 12 personnel*20th8th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 4th
play-action DEF12th1stplay-action OFFPA rate 7th
DEF vs 11 personnel*25th14th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 24th
run DEF19th9thrun OFF
zone coverage*zone rate 27th14th6thOFF vs zone*
pass rush w/o blitz9th7thprotection vs no blitz
third-down DEF25th27ththird-down OFF
blitzing DEFblitz rate 32nd3rd5thOFF vs the blitz
Pace & tendencies
31.3s25thSeconds between snaps30th32.2s
63.419thPlays per game21st63.2
+5.9%2ndPass rate over expected25th-3.4%
5%19thNo-huddle rate24th4%
75%2ndShotgun rate23rd56%
53%23rdMotion rate6th64%
17%30thPlay-action rate7th28%
2.55s30thTime to throw*4th3.15s
44%30th11 personnel*24th50%
49%1st12 personnel*4th35%
16%32ndDEF blitz rate14th31%
31%6thDEF man rate*14th22%
63.620thPlays faced per game19th64.2
CIN
away
3 ATS trends · 1 🔥
CIN-1.5
ATSBurrow on the road
67.4%
win rate
31-15-1
record
+28.7%
roi
+2.6ppg
avg cover
🔥
LWWLWWWWWLWWLLWWWWLP
last 20: 13-6-1 (68.4%) · avg cover +3.4 ppg
last 10: 6-3-1 (66.7%) · avg cover +5.8 ppg
since 2003: 31-15-1 (67.4%) · avg cover +2.6 ppg
CIN-1.5
ATSTaylor on the road
61.9%
win rate
39-24-1
record
+18.2%
roi
+0.9ppg
avg cover
📈
WWWWWLWWLLLLWLWWWWLP
last 20: 12-7-1 (63.2%) · avg cover +0.6 ppg
last 10: 5-4-1 (55.6%) · avg cover -0.7 ppg
since 2003: 39-24-1 (61.9%) · avg cover +0.9 ppg
CIN-1.5
ATSfadecoolingFading home dogs, against a team off a bye
59.5%
win rate
72-49-4
record
+13.6%
roi
+2.4ppg
avg cover
📈
LWLPWLWWLLLLWLWWLWLW
last 20: 9-10-1 (47.4%) · avg cover +1.6 ppg
last 10: 5-5 (50.0%) · avg cover +3.7 ppg
since 2003: 72-49-4 (59.5%) · avg cover +2.4 ppg
BAL
home
1 ATS trend
BAL+1.5
ATSIn a division game, off a loss, against a team off a bye
58.8%
win rate
70-49-5
record
+12.3%
roi
+1.7ppg
avg cover
📈
WWLLWPWWPWWLWLWWWLWL
last 20: 12-6-2 (66.7%) · avg cover +3.9 ppg
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg cover +4.5 ppg
since 2003: 70-49-5 (58.8%) · avg cover +1.7 ppg
Over / Under
2 trends
Under 48.5
Under
Tyler Huntley outdoors
64.7%
win rate
11-6
record
+23.5%
roi
+3.7ppg
avg under
📈
WLWWWWWWLWLWWLLLW
last 10: 5-5 (50.0%) · avg under +0.5 ppg
since 2003: 11-6 (64.7%) · avg under +3.7 ppg
Under 48.5
Undercooling
In a division game, outdoors, with a spread of 3 points or fewer
55.5%
win rate
308-247-10
record
+5.9%
roi
+0.9ppg
avg under
📈
LWLLLWWWWLLLLLWLWLWL
last 20: 8-12 (40.0%) · avg under -1.3 ppg
last 10: 3-7 (30.0%) · avg under -5.1 ppg
since 2003: 308-247-10 (55.5%) · avg under +0.9 ppg
- M&T Bank Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
- Surface · grass
Run your own query on this matchup
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