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Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals

DEN@ARI DEN -4.5 · O/U 43.5
DEN
Sunday 2026-10-25
4:05pm
CBS
Indoors
ARI
How to attack
DEN offense vs ARI defense
  • Throw to the wide receiversMixedARI ranks 31st vs wide receivers in EPA per target: 60% caught, 9.9 yds per target, 153 per game. Best fits: Jaylen Waddle (24% of targets).
    • Without CB Will Johnson (wk 3, 4, 5, 6): 10.9 yds per target on 54 targets; with him 8.4 on 39; IR this week
    • Jaylen Waddle on these targets: 38, 58% caught, 6.0 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
    • Two big plays make it (82 yds wk 2 vs SEA, 82 wk 3 vs SF); without them 8.3 (league 8.1)
    • S Budda Baker (6 starts) is Questionable this week (groin)
    AngleJaylen Waddle over 50.5 rec yds (-114 FD); Jaylen Waddle over 4.5 catches (-108 FD).
  • Get the tight end involvedMixedARI ranks 28th vs tight ends in EPA per target: 83% caught, 8.9 yds per target, 69 per game. Best fits: Evan Engram (12% of targets).
    • Without S Andrew Wingard (wk 4, 5, 6): 7.9 yds per target on 29 targets; with him 10.4 on 18; Out this week (knee)
    • Evan Engram on these targets: 19, 63% caught, 7.1 yds each (league 72%, 7.0)
    • S Budda Baker (6 starts) is Questionable this week (groin)
    • ARI allowed more than league average per target in 3 of 6 games
    AngleEvan Engram over 22.5 rec yds (-114 FD); Evan Engram over 2.5 catches (-109 DK).
  • Finish in the red zoneARI allows touchdowns on 72.7% of red-zone trips (27th); DEN scores them on 64.7% (11th).
    • ARI allowed TDs on 16 of 22 trips (2/3, 3/5, 3/3, 2/3, 4/4, 2/4 by game)
    • DEN scored TDs on 11 of 17 trips (1/2, 2/4, 3/3, 1/1, 2/5, 2/2 by game)
    AngleJ.K. Dobbins anytime TD (+125).
ARI offense vs DEN defense
  • Blitz troubleDEN blitzes on 36.6% of dropbacks (8th-most); ARI ranks 26th against the blitz.
    AngleJacoby Brissett under 226.5 pass yds (-111 DK); Jacoby Brissett over 0.5 INTs (-101 DK).
  • Run the ballShakyDEN ranks 29th vs the run (4.4 per carry). Tyler Allgeier has 44% of the backs' carries lately (10 a game).
    • Tyler Allgeier: 53 carries here, 3.0 per carry, 34% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
    • Two big plays make it (60 yds wk 1 vs KC, 42 wk 5 vs LAC); without them 3.8 (league 3.9)
    • LB Jonah Elliss (5 starts) is Out this week (ankle)
    • Jeremiyah Love (Out): 67 carries here, 3.7 per carry, 43% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
    AngleTyler Allgeier over 28.5 rush yds (-116 DK); Tyler Allgeier over 9.5 carries (-101 DK). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
Key injuriesARI Jeremiyah Love RB (ankle) Out
Motivation & storylines
  • StakesDEN 4-2, 2nd in the AFC West (1.5 back); ARI 2-4, 4th in the NFC West (4 back).
  • HistoryLast met 2022 wk 15: DEN 24-15 at DEN -- first meeting since 2022.
  • RevengeDEN vs a former team: Zach Allen (DL, ARI 2019-22).
  • RevengeARI vs a former team: Baron Browning (LB, DEN 2021-24); Elijah Wilkinson (OL, DEN 2018-20).
  • SpotDEN has 3 more days of rest; DEN won 17-14 vs SEA in overtime last week; ARI won 18-16 at LA as a 12.5-point underdog last week.
W 17-14 vs SEALast weekW 18-16 @ LA
vs KCNext week@ DAL
59OFF plays last game72
83DEF plays last game58
Miles flown, last 21 days
2,261 mi18th5th701 mi
EPA rank · adjusted
20thOffense16th
4thDefense29th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
−4.5 DEN vs ARI +4.5
DEF vs 12 personnel*1st27th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 30th
protection vs no blitz1st23rdpass rush w/o blitz
big-play DEF11th32ndbig-play OFF
run DEF up front*2nd22ndrun blocking*
play-action DEF2nd19thplay-action OFFPA rate 32nd
man coverage*man rate 13th14th31stOFF vs man*
blitzing DEFblitz rate 8th10th26thOFF vs the blitz
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
−4.5 DEN vs ARI +4.5
DEN OFF vs ARI DEF
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 16th22nd32ndDEF vs 12 personnel*
play-action OFFPA rate 20th23rd30thplay-action DEF
OFF vs zone*21st28thzone coverage*zone rate 3rd
run OFF17th23rdrun DEF
run blocking*13th19thrun DEF up front*
early-down OFF28th18thearly-down DEF
pass OFF29th24thpass DEF
big-play OFF30th27thbig-play DEF
pass protection*25th26thpass rush*
third-down OFF25th21stthird-down DEF
OFF vs the blitz28th31stblitzing DEFblitz rate 18th
OFF vs man*30th31stman coverage*man rate 30th
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 10th22nd19thDEF vs 11 personnel*
DEN DEF vs ARI OFF
pass DEF3rd15thpass OFF
zone coverage*zone rate 20th3rd12thOFF vs zone*
early-down DEF3rd10thearly-down OFF
third-down DEF27th15ththird-down OFF
DEF vs 11 personnel*18th11th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 21st
run DEF12th13thrun OFF
pass rush*4th1stpass protection*
pass rush w/o blitz2nd6thprotection vs no blitz
Pace & tendencies
30.6s19thSeconds between snaps23rd31.0s
60.728thPlays per game5th69.5
-1.9%22ndPass rate over expected20th-1.1%
5%21stNo-huddle rate5th11%
67%13thShotgun rate22nd56%
61%12thMotion rate11th61%
22%20thPlay-action rate32nd16%
2.97s14thTime to throw*31st2.54s
62%10th11 personnel*21st59%
22%16th12 personnel*30th12%
37%8thDEF blitz rate18th28%
22%13thDEF man rate*30th10%
70.34thPlays faced per game27th61.5
DEN away 2 ATS trends
ARI home 1 ATS trend · 1 🔥
Over / Under
2 trends

Run your own query on this matchup

Every other game this week: Week 7 2026 trends.

Gamble Responsibly. 21+ Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at your book before betting. College Football betting trends by week and game. * Stats marked with an asterisk (pressure, run blocking, man/zone coverage, time to throw, personnel): Sharp Football Analysis.