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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions

GB@DET DET -3 · O/U 53.5
GB
Sunday 2026-10-25
4:25pm
FOX
Indoors
DET
How to attack
GB offense vs DET defense
  • Protect Jordan LoveSolidGB lets its QB get hit or sacked on 17.8% of dropbacks (5th-most); DET gets there on 17.6% (5th-most). His EPA per dropback falls from +0.22 clean to -0.34 when hit.
    • GB's QB hit or sacked on 15% of dropbacks the last 2 games, 19% before
    • DET above the league hit-and-sack rate in 3 of 5 games
    • Last 2 games DET hit or sacked the QB on 22% of dropbacks; 15% before
    AngleJordan Love under 284.5 pass yds (-112 DK); Jordan Love over 0.5 INTs (-144 DK).
  • Throw to the wide receiversMixedDET ranks 32nd vs wide receivers in EPA per target: 68% caught, 8.9 yds per target, 195 per game. Best fits: Matthew Golden (28% of targets, 7 in the red zone) and Christian Watson (20% of targets).
    • Without CB Rock Ya-Sin (wk 4, 5): 7.8 yds per target on 52 targets; with him 10.7 on 41; full practice this week (hamstring)
    • Matthew Golden on these targets: 57, 53% caught, 8.8 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
    • Two big plays make it (47 yds wk 1 vs NO, 43 wk 2 vs BUF); without them 8.3 (league 8.1)
    • DET allowed more than league average per target in 4 of 5 games
    AngleMatthew Golden over 73.5 rec yds (-114 FD); Matthew Golden over 4.5 catches (-178 FD).
  • Get the tight end involvedMixedDET ranks 30th vs tight ends in EPA per target: 78% caught, 8.4 yds per target, 109 per game. Best fits: Tucker Kraft (19% of targets, 5 in the red zone).
    • Tucker Kraft on these targets: 37, 68% caught, 6.7 yds each (league 72%, 7.0)
    • DET allowed more than league average per target in 3 of 5 games
    • Last 2 games DET allowed 7.5 per target; 9.0 before
    AngleTucker Kraft over 49.5 rec yds (-114 FD); Tucker Kraft over 4.5 catches (-114 FD).
DET offense vs GB defense
  • Tough spot for Amon-Ra St. BrownSolidGB ranks 1st vs wide receivers (6.4 yds per target). He gets 29% of DET's targets.
    • Amon-Ra St. Brown on these targets: 57, 65% caught, 6.7 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
    • CB Brandon Cisse (6 starts) is limited this week (shoulder)
    • GB allowed less than league average per target in 5 of 6 games
    • Last 2 games GB allowed 4.9 per target; 7.7 before
    AngleAmon-Ra St. Brown under 78.5 rec yds (-110 DK); Amon-Ra St. Brown under 7.5 catches (-125 DK).
  • Run the ballShakyGB ranks 28th vs the run (3.9 per carry). Jahmyr Gibbs has 84% of the backs' carries lately (20 a game).
    • Without LB Edgerrin Cooper (wk 5, 6): 3.0 per carry on 36 carries; with him 4.2 on 117; IR this week
    • Jahmyr Gibbs: 105 carries here, 4.8 per carry, 50% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
    • Two big plays make it (55 yds wk 3 vs ATL, 31 wk 3 vs ATL); without them 3.4 (league 3.9)
    • LB Zaire Franklin (6 starts) is Out this week (shin)
    AngleJahmyr Gibbs over 93.5 rush yds (-114 FD); Jahmyr Gibbs over 20.5 carries (-120 DK). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
  • Throw to the backsShakyGB ranks 28th vs backs in EPA per target: 81% caught, 6.4 yds per target, 34 per game. Best fits: Jahmyr Gibbs (18% of targets, 4 in the red zone).
    • Without LB Edgerrin Cooper (wk 5, 6): 4.5 yds per target on 20 targets; with him 9.4 on 12; IR this week
    • Jahmyr Gibbs on these targets: 34, 79% caught, 6.9 yds each (league 78%, 5.5)
    • Two big plays make it (43 yds wk 2 vs NYJ, 17 wk 3 vs ATL); without them 4.8 (league 5.5)
    • LB Zaire Franklin (6 starts) is Out this week (shin)
    AngleJahmyr Gibbs over 38.5 rec yds (-115 DK); Jahmyr Gibbs over 4.5 catches (-138 DK). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
Motivation & storylines
  • StakesDivision game. MIN leads the NFC North by 1; GB 4-2, 1.5 back; DET 3-2, 2 back.
  • HistoryLast met 2025 wk 13: GB 31-24 at DET.
  • History2025 series: GB swept DET (13-27 at GB, 31-24 at DET).
  • RevengeGB vs a former team: Laken Tomlinson (G, DET 2016).
  • StreakGB has won 3 straight.
  • SpotDET off a bye; DET won 45-21 at ARI last week.
W 23-13 vs DALLast weekBye
vs CARNext weekvs MIN
73OFF plays last game66
78DEF plays last game72
Miles flown, last 21 days
293 mi2nd22nd3,389 mi
EPA rank · adjusted
14thOffense3rd
14thDefense30th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+3 GB vs DET −3
OFF vs man*3rd27thman coverage*man rate 16th
travel293 mi, 21 days2nd22ndtravel3,389 mi, 21 days
play-action OFFPA rate 26th7th26thplay-action DEF
OFF vs zone*11th30thzone coverage*zone rate 17th
protection vs no blitz28th6thpass rush w/o blitz
man coverage*man rate 24th26th4thOFF vs man*
run DEF26th7thrun OFF
blitzing DEFblitz rate 12th20th1stOFF vs the blitz
pass rush*22nd7thpass protection*
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
+3 GB vs DET −3
GB OFF vs DET DEF
pass OFF17th30thpass DEF
big-play OFF18th30thbig-play DEF
OFF vs the blitz14th26thblitzing DEFblitz rate 17th
third-down OFF20th31stthird-down DEF
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 11th21st29thDEF vs 11 personnel*
run blocking*25th31strun DEF up front*
run OFF31st18thrun DEF
pass protection*21st8thpass rush*
early-down OFF24th26thearly-down DEF
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 14th23rd21stDEF vs 12 personnel*
GB DEF vs DET OFF
DEF vs 12 personnel*24th11th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 5th
early-down DEF11th3rdearly-down OFF
DEF vs 11 personnel*11th3rd11-personnel OFF*11 rate 15th
pass rush w/o blitz27th21stprotection vs no blitz
pass DEF7th5thpass OFF
big-play DEF3rd8thbig-play OFF
third-down DEF29th26ththird-down OFF
run DEF up front*1st6thrun blocking*
play-action DEF5th4thplay-action OFFPA rate 2nd
zone coverage*zone rate 9th1st4thOFF vs zone*
Pace & tendencies
29.4s8thSeconds between snaps16th30.1s
63.818thPlays per game7th68.4
+0.4%10thPass rate over expected16th-0.6%
10%7thNo-huddle rate14th6%
67%9thShotgun rate30th49%
64%9thMotion rate26th51%
20%26thPlay-action rate2nd32%
2.48s32ndTime to throw*21st2.76s
62%11th11 personnel*15th60%
25%14th12 personnel*5th33%
34%12thDEF blitz rate17th30%
17%24thDEF man rate*16th20%
68.87thPlays faced per game1st74.2
GB away 2 ATS trends · 1 🔥
DET home 3 ATS trends
Over / Under
4 trends

Run your own query on this matchup

Every other game this week: Week 7 2026 trends.

Gamble Responsibly. 21+ Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at your book before betting. College Football betting trends by week and game. * Stats marked with an asterisk (pressure, run blocking, man/zone coverage, time to throw, personnel): Sharp Football Analysis.