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Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings

IND@MIN MIN -6.5 · O/U 41.5
IND
Sunday 2026-10-25
1:00pm
CBS
Indoors
MIN
How to attack
IND offense vs MIN defense
  • Protect Daniel JonesMixedIND lets its QB get hit or sacked on 15.9% of dropbacks (11th-most); MIN gets there on 23.0% (1st-most). His EPA per dropback falls from +0.06 clean to -1.15 when hit.
    • MIN above the league hit-and-sack rate in 4 of 5 games
    • Last 2 games MIN hit or sacked the QB on 17% of dropbacks; 25% before
    AngleDaniel Jones under 189.5 pass yds (-114 FD); Daniel Jones over 0.5 INTs (-117 DK).
  • Tough spot for Keenan AllenSolidMIN ranks 3rd vs wide receivers (7.2 yds per target). He gets 22% of IND's targets.
    • Keenan Allen on these targets: 40, 65% caught, 5.7 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
    • S Harrison Smith (2 starts) is limited this week (not injury related - resting player)
    • MIN allowed less than league average per target in 4 of 5 games
    • Last 2 games MIN allowed 5.1 per target; 8.2 before
    AngleKeenan Allen under 42.5 rec yds (-112 DK); Keenan Allen under 5.5 catches (-133 DK).
  • Tough sledding for Jonathan TaylorSolidMIN ranks 1st vs the run (3.6 per carry).
    • Without DL Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins (wk 2): 3.7 per carry on 29 carries; with him 2.8 on 59; expected back
    • Jonathan Taylor: 122 carries here, 4.0 per carry, 40% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
    • MIN allowed less than league average per carry in 4 of 5 games
    • Seth McGowan: 21 carries here, 4.2 per carry, 33% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
    AngleJonathan Taylor under 71.5 rush yds (-114 DK).
MIN offense vs IND defense
  • Run the ballMixedIND ranks 31st vs the run (4.5 per carry). Aaron Jones has 89% of the backs' carries lately (21 a game).
    • Aaron Jones: 97 carries here, 4.2 per carry, 36% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
    • Two big plays make it (50 yds wk 5 vs PIT, 35 wk 4 vs WAS); without them 4.0 (league 3.9)
    • DT DeForest Buckner (6 starts) is DNP this week (not injury related - resting player)
    • Jordan Mason (Questionable): 15 carries here, 3.9 per carry, 20% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
    AngleAaron Jones over 38.5 rush yds (-114 FD); Aaron Jones over 10.5 carries (-101 DK).
  • Time to throw for Kyler MurraySolidIND hits or sacks the QB on only 11.7% of dropbacks (26th-most).
    • Without LB Jaylon Carlies (wk 5, 6): 5% of dropbacks on 61 dropbacks; with him 11% on 117; full practice this week (ribs)
    • DT DeForest Buckner (6 starts) is DNP this week (not injury related - resting player)
    • T Christian Darrisaw (4 starts) is DNP (concussion)
    • G Donovan Jackson (3 starts) is IR
    AngleKyler Murray over 205.5 pass yds (-114 FD).
  • Throw to the backsShakyIND ranks 29th vs backs in EPA per target: 74% caught, 8.7 yds per target, 45 per game. Best fits: Aaron Jones (17% of targets).
    • Without LB Jaylon Carlies (wk 5, 6): 11.8 yds per target on 8 targets; with him 7.7 on 17; full practice this week (ribs)
    • Aaron Jones on these targets: 18, 67% caught, 4.0 yds each (league 78%, 5.5)
    • Two big plays make it (80 yds wk 5 vs PIT, 35 wk 4 vs WAS); without them 5.4 (league 5.5)
    • Mostly one game: wk 5 vs PIT, 14.5 yds per target on 6
    AngleAaron Jones over 14.5 rec yds (-109 DK); Aaron Jones over 2.5 catches (-114 FD). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
Key injuriesIND Tyler Warren TE (groin) Out
Motivation & storylines
  • StakesIND 2-4, 2nd in the AFC South (2 back); MIN 5-0, 1st in the NFC North (leads).
  • HistoryLast met 2024 wk 9: MIN 21-13 at MIN -- first meeting since 2024.
  • RevengeIND vs a former team: Camryn Bynum (S, MIN 2022-24); Laquon Treadwell (WR, MIN 2017-18).
  • RevengeMIN vs a former team: Will Fries (G, IND 2022-24); Isaiah Rodgers (CB, IND 2021-22); Carson Wentz (QB, IND 2021).
  • StreakMIN has won 5 straight (unbeaten).
  • SpotMIN off a bye; IND lost 26-20 vs TEN as a 6.5-point favorite last week.
L 20-26 vs TENLast weekBye
@ JAXNext week@ DET
82OFF plays last game67
45DEF plays last game45
Miles flown, last 21 days
1,167 mi9th17th2,104 mi
EPA rank · adjusted
24thOffense28th
22ndDefense1st
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+6.5 IND vs MIN −6.5
DEF vs 12 personnel*6th25th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 26th
pass DEF12th28thpass OFF
pass OFF27th1stpass DEF
early-down OFF22nd1stearly-down DEF
OFF vs man*25th5thman coverage*man rate 31st
OFF vs the blitz22nd5thblitzing DEFblitz rate 1st
OFF vs zone*30th13thzone coverage*zone rate 2nd
third-down OFF17th1stthird-down DEF
run DEF up front*26th11thrun blocking*
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
+6.5 IND vs MIN −6.5
IND OFF vs MIN DEF
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 17th15th1stDEF vs 11 personnel*
pass protection*14th2ndpass rush*
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 8th14th2ndDEF vs 12 personnel*
big-play OFF20th10thbig-play DEF
run OFF5th1strun DEF
protection vs no blitz5th4thpass rush w/o blitz
run blocking*12th11thrun DEF up front*
play-action OFFPA rate 5th25th20thplay-action DEF
IND DEF vs MIN OFF
big-play DEF12th24thbig-play OFF
third-down DEF4th16ththird-down OFF
early-down DEF24th32ndearly-down OFF
DEF vs 11 personnel*23rd31st11-personnel OFF*11 rate 16th
man coverage*man rate 7th12th18thOFF vs man*
pass rush*27th19thpass protection*
run DEF31st25thrun OFF
pass rush w/o blitz21st22ndprotection vs no blitz
blitzing DEFblitz rate 31st22nd25thOFF vs the blitz
play-action DEF19th22ndplay-action OFFPA rate 4th
zone coverage*zone rate 26th25th26thOFF vs zone*
Pace & tendencies
31.2s24thSeconds between snaps26th31.4s
67.88thPlays per game23rd63.0
-0.7%17thPass rate over expected26th-5.3%
3%27thNo-huddle rate13th6%
62%15thShotgun rate17th61%
61%13thMotion rate21st54%
29%5thPlay-action rate4th30%
2.78s19thTime to throw*7th3.10s
60%17th11 personnel*16th60%
29%8th12 personnel*26th17%
21%31stDEF blitz rate1st70%
30%7thDEF man rate*31st7%
60.828thPlays faced per game31st58.8
IND away 2 ATS trends · 1 🔥
Over / Under
1 trend

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Every other game this week: Week 7 2026 trends.

Gamble Responsibly. 21+ Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at your book before betting. College Football betting trends by week and game. * Stats marked with an asterisk (pressure, run blocking, man/zone coverage, time to throw, personnel): Sharp Football Analysis.