Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks
KC@
SEA
SEA -3 · O/U 42.5
KCSunday 2026-10-25
8:20pm
NBC
50°F · wind 3 mph · 💧 22%
SEAHow to attack
KC offense vs SEA defense- Finish in the red zoneSEA allows touchdowns on 84.6% of red-zone trips (30th); KC scores them on 56.5% (16th).
- SEA allowed TDs on 11 of 13 trips (1/2, 1/1, 2/3, 2/2, 3/3, 2/2 by game)
- KC scored TDs on 13 of 23 trips (3/5, 3/5, 3/5, 3/4, 1/4 by game)
AngleKenneth Walker III anytime TD (-125). - Tough sledding for Kenneth Walker IIIMixedSEA ranks 3rd vs the run (3.3 per carry).
- Kenneth Walker III: 106 carries here, 6.3 per carry, 48% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
- LB DeMarcus Lawrence (6 starts) is Questionable this week (knee)
- SEA allowed less than league average per carry in 3 of 6 games
- Emmett Johnson: 19 carries here, 3.3 per carry, 42% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
Angleno rush yds line posted yet for Kenneth Walker III (the data leans under). - Play action is less of a weapon hereKC uses it on 34.9% of dropbacks (1st-most); SEA ranks 4th against it.Angleno pass yds line posted yet for Patrick Mahomes (the data leans under).
SEA offense vs KC defense- Tough spot for Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSolidKC ranks 2nd vs wide receivers (6.4 yds per target). He gets 33% of SEA's targets.
- Without CB Mansoor Delane (wk 2): 8.3 yds per target on 18 targets; with him 6.6 on 54; expected back
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba on these targets: 66, 74% caught, 10.9 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
- CB L'Jarius Sneed (4 starts) is Questionable this week (knee)
- KC allowed less than league average per target in 4 of 5 games
Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Jaxon Smith-Njigba (the data leans under).
Key injuriesKC Rashee Rice WR (hamstring) Out · SEA Drew Lock QB (elbow) Questionable
Motivation & storylines
- StakesKC 5-0, 1st in the AFC West (leads); SEA 3-3, 2nd in the NFC West (3 back).
- HistoryLast met 2022 wk 16: KC 24-10 at KC -- first meeting since 2022.
- RevengeKC vs a former team: Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA 2022-25).
- RevengeSEA vs a former team: Jarran Reed (DE, KC 2021).
- StreakKC has won 5 straight (unbeaten).
- SpotSEA has 3 more days of rest; SEA lost 17-14 at DEN in overtime last week.
W 22-6 vs LACLast weekL 14-17 @ DEN
@ DENNext weekvs CHI
59OFF plays last game83
68DEF plays last game59
Miles flown, last 21 days
1,509 mi11th16th2,035 mi
Exclude KC weeks
Exclude SEA weeks
EPA rank · adjusted
4thOffense26th
11thDefense2nd
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+3 KC vs SEA −3
vs SEA −3DEF vs 11 personnel*3rd32nd11-personnel OFF*11 rate 27th
run DEF3rd30thrun OFF
run DEF up front*6th27thrun blocking*
third-down DEF10th30ththird-down OFF
protection vs no blitz24th1stpass rush w/o blitz
OFF vs zone*18th2ndzone coverage*zone rate 1st
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
+3 KC vs SEA −3
vs SEA −3KC OFF vs SEA DEF
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 6th17th4thDEF vs 12 personnel*
pass OFF8th2ndpass DEF
run OFF2nd2ndrun DEF
big-play OFF2nd1stbig-play DEF
pass protection*8th5thpass rush*
third-down OFF11th7ththird-down DEF
early-down OFF5th2ndearly-down DEF
run blocking*4th3rdrun DEF up front*
OFF vs the blitz6th4thblitzing DEFblitz rate 30th
play-action OFFPA rate 1st6th4thplay-action DEF
OFF vs man*5th6thman coverage*man rate 32nd
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 23rd2nd4thDEF vs 11 personnel*
KC DEF vs SEA OFF
pass rush w/o blitz15th29thprotection vs no blitz
early-down DEF6th15thearly-down OFF
man coverage*man rate 8th11th20thOFF vs man*
big-play DEF7th15thbig-play OFF
pass DEF11th18thpass OFF
blitzing DEFblitz rate 22nd25th11thOFF vs the blitz
play-action DEF21st9thplay-action OFFPA rate 8th
zone coverage*zone rate 25th26th19thOFF vs zone*
pass rush*25th30thpass protection*
DEF vs 12 personnel*7th12th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 10th
Pace & tendencies
29.8s11thSeconds between snaps28th31.8s
63.419thPlays per game17th65.0
+4.3%4thPass rate over expected28th-7.0%
0%32ndNo-huddle rate29th2%
60%18thShotgun rate29th52%
60%15thMotion rate19th57%
35%1stPlay-action rate8th27%
2.66s28thTime to throw*11th3.02s
53%23rd11 personnel*27th45%
33%6th12 personnel*10th29%
27%22ndDEF blitz rate30th22%
27%8thDEF man rate*32nd7%
67.49thPlays faced per game22nd62.7
KC
away
4 ATS trends · 3 🔥
KC+3
ATSMahomes as a road dog
90.9%
win rate
10-1-1
record
+73.6%
roi
+7.6ppg
avg cover
🔥
WWWWPWWWWWWL
last 10: 8-1-1 (88.9%) · avg cover +7.2 ppg
since 2003: 10-1-1 (90.9%) · avg cover +7.6 ppg
KC+3
ATSReid as a road dog
65.3%
win rate
47-25-1
record
+24.6%
roi
+2.7ppg
avg cover
🔥
LWWWWLWWWWPWWWWWWWLL
last 20: 15-4-1 (78.9%) · avg cover +3.8 ppg
last 10: 7-2-1 (77.8%) · avg cover +3.9 ppg
since 2003: 47-25-1 (65.3%) · avg cover +2.7 ppg
KC+3
ATSfadeFading Darnold off a loss, outdoors
73.1%
win rate
19-7-1
record
+39.5%
roi
+3.4ppg
avg cover
🔥
WWLWLWWWLWWWWWLLLWPW
last 20: 13-6-1 (68.4%) · avg cover +3.3 ppg
last 10: 6-3-1 (66.7%) · avg cover +1.9 ppg
since 2003: 19-7-1 (73.1%) · avg cover +3.4 ppg
KC+3
ATSfadeFading home teams, off an overtime game
57.1%
win rate
173-130-13
record
+9.0%
roi
+1.5ppg
avg cover
📈
WWLWLWWWWLWWLWLWLWWW
last 20: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg cover +3.9 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg cover +5.8 ppg
since 2003: 173-130-13 (57.1%) · avg cover +1.5 ppg
SEA
home
1 ATS trend
SEA-3
ATScoolingOff a loss, off an overtime game, in primetime
59.6%
win rate
31-21
record
+13.8%
roi
+1.0ppg
avg cover
📈
WWWWWWWLLLWLWWLWWLLL
last 20: 12-8 (60.0%) · avg cover -1.4 ppg
last 10: 5-5 (50.0%) · avg cover -2.8 ppg
since 2003: 31-21 (59.6%) · avg cover +1.0 ppg
Over / Under
4 trends
Over 42.5
Over
Andy Reid as a dog, in primetime
76.9%
win rate
20-6
record
+46.9%
roi
+10.3ppg
avg over
🔥
WWLLWWWLLWWWWWWWWLWL
last 20: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg over +9.0 ppg
last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg over +15.8 ppg
since 2003: 20-6 (76.9%) · avg over +10.3 ppg
Over 42.5
Over
Mike Macdonald as a home fav
73.3%
win rate
11-4
record
+40.0%
roi
+6.2ppg
avg over
📈
WLWWWWWLLWWWLWW
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg over +5.3 ppg
since 2003: 11-4 (73.3%) · avg over +6.2 ppg
Over 42.5
Over
Sam Darnold at home, off a loss, outdoors
75.0%
win rate
9-3
record
+43.2%
roi
+10.0ppg
avg over
📈
WWWLLWWWLWWW
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg over +7.8 ppg
since 2003: 9-3 (75.0%) · avg over +10.0 ppg
Under 42.5
Under
Teams as a dog of 3 points or fewer, off a win, in primetime
55.8%
win rate
125-99-1
record
+6.5%
roi
+0.9ppg
avg under
📈
WWWWWLWWWWLLWWLLLWWL
last 20: 13-7 (65.0%) · avg under +4.2 ppg
last 10: 4-6 (40.0%) · avg under -2.2 ppg
since 2003: 125-99-1 (55.8%) · avg under +0.9 ppg
- Lumen Field
- Roof · outdoors
- Surface · turf
Run your own query on this matchup
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