Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders
LA@
LV
LA -3 · O/U 48.5
LASunday 2026-10-25
4:25pm
FOX
Indoors
LVHow to attack
LA offense vs LV defense- Throw to the backsMixedLV ranks 32nd vs backs in EPA per target: 93% caught, 8.1 yds per target, 37 per game. Best fits: Kyren Williams (19% of targets, 4 in the red zone).
- Without S Treydan Stukes (wk 3): 3.8 yds per target on 6 targets; with him 8.9 on 18; expected back
- Kyren Williams on these targets: 39, 77% caught, 5.6 yds each (league 78%, 5.5)
- Mostly one game: wk 6 vs BUF, 14.5 yds per target on 6
- LV allowed more than league average per target in 4 of 5 games
AngleKyren Williams over 26.5 rec yds (-110 DK); Kyren Williams over 3.5 catches (-132 DK). - Run outside, not insideShakyLV allows 6.0 per carry outside the tackles (31st) but 4.3 between the guards (1st). Kyren Williams has 61% of the backs' carries lately (14 a game).
- Without CB Darien Porter (wk 2, 3, 4): 6.5 per carry on 28 carries; with him 5.5 on 24; expected back
- Kyren Williams: 21 carries here, 5.9 per carry, 43% successful (league 4.5, 41%)
- LV allowed more than league average per carry in 3 of 6 games
- Blake Corum: 18 carries here, 4.6 per carry, 39% successful (league 4.5, 41%)
AngleKyren Williams over 66.5 rush yds (-114 DK); Kyren Williams over 14.5 carries (-121 DK). Weak case: the read is Shaky. - Attack the short rightSolidLV gives up 6.9 yds per target to the short right (32nd, 63 targets). Tyler Higbee has 18 targets there this season.
- Without CB Darien Porter (wk 2, 3, 4): 5.9 yds per target on 35 targets; with him 8.1 on 28; expected back
- Tyler Higbee on these targets: 18, 89% caught, 6.8 yds each (league 69%, 5.5)
- LV allowed more than league average per target in 6 of 6 games
- Last 2 games LV allowed 8.7 per target; 5.9 before
Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Tyler Higbee (the data leans over).
LV offense vs LA defense- Tough spot for Brock BowersMixedLA ranks 1st vs tight ends (3.9 yds per target). He gets 24% of LV's targets.
- Without S Kamren Kinchens (wk 2, 3): 2.3 yds per target on 18 targets; with him 4.9 on 28; expected back
- Brock Bowers on these targets: 43, 65% caught, 8.9 yds each (league 72%, 7.0)
- LB Nathan Landman (6 starts) is Out this week (concussion)
- LB Byron Young (6 starts) is DNP this week (not injury related - resting player)
AngleBrock Bowers under 73.5 rec yds (-112 DK); Brock Bowers under 6.5 catches (-142 DK). - Red-zone stalls likelyLV scores touchdowns on 54.2% of red-zone trips (24th); LA allows them on 50.0% (6th).
- Matt Gay: 14 of 15 on field goals, 1 of 1 from 50+, long 59; missed in wk 5
- LA allowed TDs on 11 of 22 trips (2/3, 0/2, 3/3, 2/4, 4/5, 0/5 by game)
- LV scored TDs on 13 of 24 trips (3/4, 2/3, 3/6, 1/3, 2/3, 2/5 by game)
AngleMatt Gay over 1.5 FGs made (-105 DK); Matt Gay over 6.5 kicking points (-109 DK).
Key injuriesLA Puka Nacua WR (calf) Questionable · LV Mike Washington Jr. RB (foot) Questionable
Motivation & storylines
- StakesLAR 2-4, 3rd in the NFC West (4 back); LV 3-3, 3rd in the AFC West (2.5 back).
- HistoryLast met 2024 wk 7: LAR 20-15 at LA -- first meeting since 2024.
- RevengeLAR vs a former team: Davante Adams (WR, LV 2022-23).
- StreakLV has lost 3 straight.
- SpotLA lost 18-16 vs ARI as a 12.5-point favorite last week.
L 16-18 vs ARILast weekL 30-33 vs BUF
vs LACNext week@ NYJ
58OFF plays last game66
72DEF plays last game65
Miles flown, last 21 days
232 mi1st24th4,730 mi
Exclude LA weeks
Exclude LV weeks
EPA rank · adjusted
13thOffense12th
8thDefense21st
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
−3 LA vs LV +3
vs LV +3run blocking*2nd32ndrun DEF up front*
travel232 mi, 21 days1st24thtravel4,730 mi, 21 days
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 18th9th30thDEF vs 11 personnel*
early-down OFF8th28thearly-down DEF
run DEF13th32ndrun OFF
pass rush w/o blitz17th32ndprotection vs no blitz
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
−3 LA vs LV +3
vs LV +3LA OFF vs LV DEF
pass OFF12th26thpass DEF
OFF vs zone*7th20thzone coverage*zone rate 18th
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 31st7th18thDEF vs 12 personnel*
third-down OFF8th18ththird-down DEF
play-action OFFPA rate 12th20th29thplay-action DEF
protection vs no blitz15th5thpass rush w/o blitz
OFF vs the blitz21st11thblitzing DEFblitz rate 23rd
run OFF12th8thrun DEF
big-play OFF17th21stbig-play DEF
pass protection*13th16thpass rush*
OFF vs man*29th32ndman coverage*man rate 15th
LA DEF vs LV OFF
DEF vs 11 personnel*14th24th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 32nd
big-play DEF6th14thbig-play OFF
run DEF up front*24th31strun blocking*
pass DEF20th11thpass OFF
early-down DEF27th20thearly-down OFF
play-action DEF11th5thplay-action OFFPA rate 15th
pass rush*13th18thpass protection*
third-down DEF8th7ththird-down OFF
blitzing DEFblitz rate 16th18th13thOFF vs the blitz
man coverage*man rate 5th10th10thOFF vs man*
zone coverage*zone rate 28th8th13thOFF vs zone*
DEF vs 12 personnel*14th9th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 2nd
Pace & tendencies
29.9s12thSeconds between snaps5th28.9s
70.83rdPlays per game10th66.7
+2.8%6thPass rate over expected18th-0.9%
12%4thNo-huddle rate12th7%
55%24thShotgun rate21st57%
66%5thMotion rate10th62%
25%12thPlay-action rate15th23%
2.68s27thTime to throw*20th2.78s
60%18th11 personnel*32nd18%
9%31st12 personnel*2nd46%
31%16thDEF blitz rate23rd27%
31%5thDEF man rate*15th20%
64.318thPlays faced per game15th65.5
LA
away
3 ATS trends
LA-3
ATSfadeFading home dogs of 3 points or fewer, on 4,500+ miles of travel in three weeks
60.0%
win rate
75-50-5
record
+14.5%
roi
+0.8ppg
avg cover
📈
WLWLWWWWLWWWWWWLLWLW
last 20: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg cover +2.1 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg cover +2.1 ppg
since 2003: 75-50-5 (60.0%) · avg cover +0.8 ppg
LA-3
ATSMcVay off a loss
62.5%
win rate
35-21-3
record
+19.3%
roi
+1.6ppg
avg cover
📈
WLLLWLWLLWWWWWWLWWWL
last 20: 12-8 (60.0%) · avg cover +0.1 ppg
last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg cover +4.8 ppg
since 2003: 35-21-3 (62.5%) · avg cover +1.6 ppg
LA-3
ATSStafford as a fav of 3 points or fewer, off a loss
68.4%
win rate
13-6
record
+30.6%
roi
+3.1ppg
avg cover
📈
WWWWLLWLLWWWWWWLWLW
last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg cover +1.9 ppg
since 2003: 13-6 (68.4%) · avg cover +3.1 ppg
LV
home
2 ATS trends
LV+3
ATSfadeFading favs of 3 points or fewer, in a non-conference game, off a loss
56.0%
win rate
135-106-15
record
+6.9%
roi
+1.4ppg
avg cover
📈
LLWWWLLWLLLLWWWLPLWW
last 20: 9-10-1 (47.4%) · avg cover -1.7 ppg
last 10: 5-4-1 (55.6%) · avg cover +2.1 ppg
since 2003: 135-106-15 (56.0%) · avg cover +1.4 ppg
LV+3
ATScoolingCousins as a dog, off a loss
61.5%
win rate
24-15-1
record
+17.5%
roi
+0.3ppg
avg cover
📈
LWLWWWLWWWWPWLLLLWLW
last 20: 11-8-1 (57.9%) · avg cover -2.5 ppg
last 10: 4-5-1 (44.4%) · avg cover -6.8 ppg
since 2003: 24-15-1 (61.5%) · avg cover +0.3 ppg
Over / Under
2 trends
Over 48.5
Over
Kirk Cousins off a loss, indoors
68.8%
win rate
22-10-1
record
+31.3%
roi
+4.5ppg
avg over
📈
WWWWWLLLWWPWWLWLWLWW
last 20: 13-6-1 (68.4%) · avg over +6.5 ppg
last 10: 6-3-1 (66.7%) · avg over +4.2 ppg
since 2003: 22-10-1 (68.8%) · avg over +4.5 ppg
Under 48.5
Under
Sean McVay as a fav
58.6%
win rate
68-48
record
+11.9%
roi
+1.0ppg
avg under
📈
WLWWWLWWLLLLLLWWWLLW
last 20: 10-10 (50.0%) · avg under -0.8 ppg
last 10: 4-6 (40.0%) · avg under -1.1 ppg
since 2003: 68-48 (58.6%) · avg under +1.0 ppg
- Allegiant Stadium
- Roof · dome
- Surface · grass
Run your own query on this matchup
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