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Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

MIA@NYJ NYJ -4.5 · O/U 39.5
MIA
Sunday 2026-10-25
1:00pm
CBS
64°F · wind 2 mph · 💧 0%
NYJ
How to attack
MIA offense vs NYJ defense
  • Blitz troubleNYJ blitzes on 37.4% of dropbacks (6th-most); MIA ranks 31st against the blitz.
    AngleMalik Willis under 183.5 pass yds (-114 FD); Malik Willis over 0.5 INTs (+102 DK).
  • Tough sledding for Ollie Gordon IIMixedNYJ ranks 4th vs the run (4.1 per carry).
    • Without DE Kingsley Enagbare (wk 4): 4.6 per carry on 50 carries; with him 3.8 on 110; expected back
    • Ollie Gordon II: 47 carries here, 5.0 per carry, 34% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
    • De'Von Achane (IR): 34 carries here, 3.7 per carry, 35% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
    • NYJ allowed less than league average per carry in 3 of 6 games
    AngleOllie Gordon II under 54.5 rush yds (-115 DK).
  • Attack the short rightShakyNYJ gives up 5.2 yds per target to the short right (28th, 67 targets). Kevin Coleman Jr. has 10 targets there this season.
    • Without S Andre Cisco (wk 4, 5, 6): 5.8 yds per target on 35 targets; with him 4.7 on 32; expected back
    • Kevin Coleman Jr. on these targets: 10, 40% caught, 1.3 yds each (league 69%, 5.5)
    • Two big plays make it (20 yds wk 5 vs CLE, 16 wk 6 vs NE); without them 4.8 (league 5.5)
    • Mostly one game: wk 6 vs NE, 6.8 yds per target on 16
    Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Kevin Coleman Jr. (the data leans over). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
NYJ offense vs MIA defense
  • Get the tight end involvedMixedMIA ranks 32nd vs tight ends in EPA per target: 92% caught, 9.5 yds per target, 76 per game. Best fits: Mason Taylor (15% of targets).
    • Mason Taylor on these targets: 12, 75% caught, 4.6 yds each (league 72%, 7.0)
    • LB Willie Gay Jr. (3 starts) is Questionable this week (illness)
    • MIA allowed more than league average per target in 3 of 5 games
    • Last 2 games MIA allowed 7.4 per target; 12.4 before
    AngleMason Taylor over 20.5 rec yds (-108 DK); Mason Taylor over 2.5 catches (-135 DK).
  • Throw to the backsShakyMIA ranks 30th vs backs in EPA per target: 83% caught, 6.6 yds per target, 39 per game. Best fits: Braelon Allen (10% of targets).
    • Braelon Allen on these targets: 13, 69% caught, 3.5 yds each (league 78%, 5.5)
    • LB Willie Gay Jr. (3 starts) is Questionable this week (illness)
    • Mostly one game: wk 2 vs SF, 11.7 yds per target on 6
    • MIA allowed more than league average per target in 2 of 5 games
    Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Braelon Allen (the data leans over). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
  • Attack the short leftShakyMIA gives up 6.5 yds per target to the short left (30th, 42 targets). Garrett Wilson has 15 targets there this season.
    • Garrett Wilson on these targets: 15, 53% caught, 4.1 yds each (league 70%, 5.8)
    • Mostly one game: wk 2 vs SF, 9.3 yds per target on 7
    • MIA allowed more than league average per target in 3 of 5 games
    • Last 2 games MIA allowed 6.1 per target; 7.0 before
    AngleGarrett Wilson over 61.5 rec yds (-114 DK); Garrett Wilson over 21.5 longest catch (-115 DK). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
Key injuriesNYJ Breece Hall RB (quadricep) Questionable
Motivation & storylines
  • StakesDivision game. BUF leads the AFC East by 1.5; MIA 0-5, 4.5 back; NYJ 2-4, 3 back.
  • HistoryLast met 2025 wk 14: MIA 34-10 at NYJ.
  • History2025 series: MIA swept NYJ (21-27 at MIA, 34-10 at NYJ).
  • RevengeNYJ vs a former team: Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, MIA 2018-25).
  • StreakMIA has lost 5 straight (winless).
  • SpotMIA off a bye.
ByeLast weekL 19-26 @ NE
vs NENext weekvs LV
65OFF plays last game61
62DEF plays last game67
Miles flown, last 21 days
1,086 mi8th3rd340 mi
EPA rank · adjusted
27thOffense19th
28thDefense10th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+4.5 MIA vs NYJ −4.5
run blocking*7th27thrun DEF up front*
play-action DEF32nd10thplay-action OFFPA rate 24th
DEF vs 12 personnel*28th6th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 13th
OFF vs the blitz31st13thblitzing DEFblitz rate 6th
play-action OFFPA rate 11th28th10thplay-action DEF
early-down DEF29th12thearly-down OFF
OFF vs zone*28th12thzone coverage*zone rate 23rd
pass DEF31st16thpass OFF
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
+4.5 MIA vs NYJ −4.5
MIA OFF vs NYJ DEF
protection vs no blitz9th18thpass rush w/o blitz
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 13th16th24thDEF vs 11 personnel*
third-down OFF12th19ththird-down DEF
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 32nd24th11thDEF vs 12 personnel*
pass OFF24th15thpass DEF
early-down OFF30th22ndearly-down DEF
run OFF20th15thrun DEF
big-play OFF10th5thbig-play DEF
pass protection*28th23rdpass rush*
OFF vs man*15th13thman coverage*man rate 10th
MIA DEF vs NYJ OFF
pass rush*17th23rdpass protection*
blitzing DEFblitz rate 20th30th19thOFF vs the blitz
zone coverage*zone rate 13th27th17thOFF vs zone*
run DEF24th22ndrun OFF
big-play DEF13th13thbig-play OFF
pass rush w/o blitz20th20thprotection vs no blitz
third-down DEF30th28ththird-down OFF
run DEF up front*16th21strun blocking*
man coverage*man rate 20th22nd26thOFF vs man*
DEF vs 11 personnel*22nd23rd11-personnel OFF*11 rate 12th
Pace & tendencies
32.4s31stSeconds between snaps27th31.7s
58.431stPlays per game28th60.7
-10.3%31stPass rate over expected24th-3.4%
2%28thNo-huddle rate23rd4%
59%20thShotgun rate19th59%
74%2ndMotion rate31st47%
25%11thPlay-action rate24th20%
3.31s1stTime to throw*12th3.00s
61%13th11 personnel*12th61%
8%32nd12 personnel*13th27%
27%20thDEF blitz rate6th37%
18%20thDEF man rate*10th27%
60.829thPlays faced per game11th66.3
MIA away 1 ATS trend
NYJ home 1 ATS trend
Over / Under
1 trend

Run your own query on this matchup

Every other game this week: Week 7 2026 trends.

Gamble Responsibly. 21+ Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at your book before betting. College Football betting trends by week and game. * Stats marked with an asterisk (pressure, run blocking, man/zone coverage, time to throw, personnel): Sharp Football Analysis.