New England Patriots at Chicago Bears

Final — NE 24, CHI 30This game has been played. The records below were rebuilt afterwards, so they now include it.

NE@CHI CHI -3 · O/U 50.5 Share

NE

Thursday 2026-10-22

8:15pm

CHI

W 26-19 vs NYJLast weekW 31-23 @ ATL

@ MIANext week@ SEA

67OFF plays last game76

61DEF plays last game55

Miles flown, last 21 days

1,612 mi13th12th1,541 mi

EPA rank · adjusted

11thOffense14th

17thDefense8th

Schedule-adjusted matchup edges

+3 NE vs CHI −3

big-play OFF6th25thbig-play DEF

pass protection*29th9thpass rush*

More schedule-adjusted matchup stats

Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.

+3 NE vs CHI −3

NE OFF vs CHI DEF

pass OFF3rd4thpass DEF

run OFF23rd27thrun DEF

protection vs no blitz––pass rush w/o blitz

third-down OFF––third-down DEF

early-down OFF––early-down DEF

run blocking*––run DEF up front*

OFF vs the blitz––blitzing DEF

play-action OFF––play-action DEF

OFF vs man*––man coverage*

OFF vs zone*––zone coverage*

11-personnel OFF*––DEF vs 11 personnel*

12-personnel OFF*––DEF vs 12 personnel*

NE DEF vs CHI OFF

big-play DEF9th16thbig-play OFF

pass DEF17th7thpass OFF

run DEF17th10thrun OFF

pass rush*14th16thpass protection*

pass rush w/o blitz––protection vs no blitz

third-down DEF––third-down OFF

early-down DEF––early-down OFF

run DEF up front*––run blocking*

blitzing DEF––OFF vs the blitz

play-action DEF––play-action OFF

man coverage*––OFF vs man*

zone coverage*––OFF vs zone*

DEF vs 11 personnel*––11-personnel OFF*

DEF vs 12 personnel*––12-personnel OFF*

NE away 3 ATS trends

NE+3 ATS

On the road, in a non-conference game, with a total of 50+

59.6%

win rate

87-59-3

record

+13.8%

roi

+1.3ppg

avg cover

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WWLLWWWWWLLWLWWLLLWL

last 20: 11-9 (55.0%) · avg cover +0.8 ppg last 10: 4-6 (40.0%) · avg cover -0.9 ppg since 2003: 87-59-3 (59.6%) · avg cover +1.3 ppg

NE+3 ATS

Vrabel off a win, in primetime

70.6%

win rate

12-5

record

+34.8%

roi

+6.6ppg

avg cover

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WLWWWLLWWWWLWWWWL

last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg cover +8.0 ppg since 2003: 12-5 (70.6%) · avg cover +6.6 ppg

NE+3 ATS

Maye as a road dog, outdoors

70.0%

win rate

7-3-2

record

+33.6%

roi

+3.0ppg

avg cover

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PWLWWWWWPLWL

last 10: 6-3-1 (66.7%) · avg cover +1.4 ppg since 2003: 7-3-2 (70.0%) · avg cover +3.0 ppg

CHI home 3 ATS trends

CHI-3 ATS

Williams as a fav

71.4%

win rate

10-4-1

record

+36.4%

roi

+3.4ppg

avg cover

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WWWLWWLPWWLWLWW

last 10: 6-3-1 (66.7%) · avg cover +3.8 ppg since 2003: 10-4-1 (71.4%) · avg cover +3.4 ppg

CHI-3 ATS

Johnson at home

69.2%

win rate

9-4-1

record

+32.2%

roi

+5.2ppg

avg cover

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LWWLPWWLWWLWWW

last 10: 7-2-1 (77.8%) · avg cover +4.9 ppg since 2003: 9-4-1 (69.2%) · avg cover +5.2 ppg

CHI-3 ATS

As a fav, in a non-conference game, on a short week

59.3%

win rate

32-22

record

+13.1%

roi

+3.3ppg

avg cover

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WWLWLLLLLWLLLWWWLWLW

last 20: 9-11 (45.0%) · avg cover +1.4 ppg last 10: 5-5 (50.0%) · avg cover +2.9 ppg since 2003: 32-22 (59.3%) · avg cover +3.3 ppg

Over / Under

5 trends

Under 50.5 Under

Ben Johnson at home

71.4%

win rate

10-4

record

+36.4%

roi

+4.7ppg

avg under

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LWWWLWWWLWWWWL

last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg under +6.4 ppg since 2003: 10-4 (71.4%) · avg under +4.7 ppg

Over 50.5 Over

Drake Maye outdoors

63.2%

win rate

24-14

record

+20.6%

roi

+0.3ppg

avg over

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WWLLWWWWWLWLLLLLWWWW

last 20: 12-8 (60.0%) · avg over -2.0 ppg last 10: 5-5 (50.0%) · avg over -4.5 ppg since 2003: 24-14 (63.2%) · avg over +0.3 ppg

Over 50.5 Over

Mike Vrabel as a dog of 3 points or fewer, off a win

68.8%

win rate

11-5

record

+31.3%

roi

+3.6ppg

avg over

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WLWWWWWLWLWLWWLW

last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg over +2.3 ppg since 2003: 11-5 (68.8%) · avg over +3.6 ppg

Under 50.5 Under

Teams as a fav of 3 points or fewer, off a win, in primetime

56.3%

win rate

125-97-3

record

+7.5%

roi

+1.0ppg

avg under

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LLWWWWWLLLWWLLWWWLLL

last 20: 10-10 (50.0%) · avg under +1.9 ppg last 10: 5-5 (50.0%) · avg under +1.2 ppg since 2003: 125-97-3 (56.3%) · avg under +1.0 ppg

Under 50.5 Under

Teams as a dog of 3 points or fewer, off a win, in primetime

55.8%

win rate

125-99-1

record

+6.5%

roi

+0.9ppg

avg under

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WWWWWLWWWWLLWWLLLWWL

last 20: 13-7 (65.0%) · avg under +4.2 ppg last 10: 4-6 (40.0%) · avg under -2.2 ppg since 2003: 125-99-1 (55.8%) · avg under +0.9 ppg

• Soldier Field
• Roof · outdoors

Run your own query on this matchup

Every other game this week: Week 7 2026 trends.