Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints
PITvs
NO
PIT -3 · O/U 44.5
PITSunday 2026-10-25
9:30am
NFL NET
56°F · wind 11 mph · 💧 50%
NOHow to attack
PIT offense vs NO defense- Run the ballShakyNO ranks 32nd vs the run (4.6 per carry). Jaylen Warren has 74% of the backs' carries lately (15 a game).
- Without DE Carl Granderson (wk 4): 6.3 per carry on 33 carries; with him 4.1 on 123; expected back
- Jaylen Warren: 84 carries here, 5.5 per carry, 44% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
- Two big plays make it (59 yds wk 4 vs ATL, 36 wk 3 vs LV); without them 4.0 (league 3.9)
- Rico Dowdle (Questionable): 22 carries here, 3.5 per carry, 23% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
AngleJaylen Warren over 63.5 rush yds (-114 FD); Jaylen Warren over 14.5 carries (-122 DK). Weak case: the read is Shaky. - Get the tight end involvedMixedNO ranks 26th vs tight ends in EPA per target: 74% caught, 8.0 yds per target, 76 per game. Best fits: Darnell Washington (13% of targets, 5 in the red zone) and Pat Freiermuth (12% of targets, 3 in the red zone).
- Darnell Washington on these targets: 22, 68% caught, 7.1 yds each (league 72%, 7.0)
- NO allowed more than league average per target in 3 of 6 games
AngleDarnell Washington over 24.5 rec yds (-114 FD); Darnell Washington over 2.5 catches (+100 FD). - Blitz troubleNO blitzes on 33.9% of dropbacks (11th-most); PIT ranks 32nd against the blitz.AngleAaron Rodgers under 232.5 pass yds (-113 DK); Aaron Rodgers over 0.5 INTs (+101 DK).
Key injuriesPIT Rico Dowdle RB (knee) Questionable
Motivation & storylines
- StakesPIT 4-2, 1st in the AFC North (leads); NO 2-4, 3rd in the NFC South (1.5 back).
- HistoryLast met 2022 wk 10: PIT 20-10 at PIT -- first meeting since 2022.
- SpotPIT won 26-19 at TB in overtime last week.
W 26-19 @ TBLast weekW 34-27 @ NYG
vs CLENext weekBye
76OFF plays last game71
74DEF plays last game72
Miles flown, last 21 days
5,634 mi25th27th7,134 mi
Exclude PIT weeks
Exclude NO weeks
EPA rank · adjusted
18thOffense23rd
13thDefense26th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
−3 PIT vs NO +3
vs NO +3run DEF up front*7th29thrun blocking*
run OFF11th32ndrun DEF
pass protection*11th28thpass rush*
zone coverage*zone rate 8th4th20thOFF vs zone*
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
−3 PIT vs NO +3
vs NO +3PIT OFF vs NO DEF
protection vs no blitz13th26thpass rush w/o blitz
early-down OFF19th32ndearly-down DEF
run blocking*8th21strun DEF up front*
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 9th18th26thDEF vs 11 personnel*
big-play OFF23rd29thbig-play DEF
OFF vs the blitz32nd21stblitzing DEFblitz rate 11th
OFF vs zone*27th18thzone coverage*zone rate 4th
pass OFF26th27thpass DEF
third-down OFF23rd28ththird-down DEF
play-action OFFPA rate 29th11th9thplay-action DEF
OFF vs man*32nd28thman coverage*man rate 29th
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 9th28th30thDEF vs 12 personnel*
PIT DEF vs NO OFF
DEF vs 11 personnel*6th17th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 7th
run DEF11th21strun OFF
big-play DEF15th25thbig-play OFF
early-down DEF19th27thearly-down OFF
pass DEF13th20thpass OFF
third-down DEF3rd10ththird-down OFF
DEF vs 12 personnel*25th15th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 24th
pass rush*20th20thpass protection*
pass rush w/o blitz14th10thprotection vs no blitz
blitzing DEFblitz rate 24th27th23rdOFF vs the blitz
play-action DEF15th14thplay-action OFFPA rate 31st
man coverage*man rate 25th24th21stOFF vs man*
Pace & tendencies
29.9s14thSeconds between snaps3rd28.8s
66.512thPlays per game4th70.0
+5.1%3rdPass rate over expected21st-1.4%
9%8thNo-huddle rate2nd14%
67%11thShotgun rate12th67%
51%26thMotion rate14th61%
17%29thPlay-action rate31st16%
2.68s26thTime to throw*23rd2.73s
63%9th11 personnel*7th68%
29%9th12 personnel*24th18%
26%24thDEF blitz rate11th34%
16%25thDEF man rate*29th11%
62.821stPlays faced per game13th66.0
PIT
2 ATS trends · 1 🔥
PIT-3
ATSMcCarthy as a fav
59.6%
win rate
118-80-5
record
+13.8%
roi
+2.0ppg
avg cover
🔥
WLWWWWWWLWLWLLLWWLWW
last 20: 13-7 (65.0%) · avg cover +3.1 ppg
last 10: 5-5 (50.0%) · avg cover -3.4 ppg
since 2003: 118-80-5 (59.6%) · avg cover +2.0 ppg
PIT-3
ATScoolingRodgers outdoors
58.1%
win rate
132-95-5
record
+11.0%
roi
+0.7ppg
avg cover
📈
LWWWLLWWLWWLWLWLWLWW
last 20: 12-8 (60.0%) · avg cover -0.2 ppg
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg cover -1.4 ppg
since 2003: 132-95-5 (58.1%) · avg cover +0.7 ppg
NO
1 ATS trend
NO+3
ATSfadeFading favs of 3 points or fewer, off an overtime game
58.7%
win rate
71-50-4
record
+12.0%
roi
+1.9ppg
avg cover
📈
LLWLWLLLLWWWWWWWWWWW
last 20: 13-7 (65.0%) · avg cover +4.8 ppg
last 10: 10-0 (100.0%) · avg cover +14.4 ppg
since 2003: 71-50-4 (58.7%) · avg cover +1.9 ppg
Over / Under
3 trends
Under 44.5
Under
Kellen Moore as a dog
68.8%
win rate
11-5
record
+31.3%
roi
+2.6ppg
avg under
📈
WLLLWWWWWWLWWLWW
last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg under +4.7 ppg
since 2003: 11-5 (68.8%) · avg under +2.6 ppg
Over 44.5
Over
Mike McCarthy off a win
56.3%
win rate
103-80-2
record
+7.5%
roi
+2.9ppg
avg over
📈
WWWPWWLLWWWLWWLWWLWW
last 20: 14-5-1 (73.7%) · avg over +5.5 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg over +3.0 ppg
since 2003: 103-80-2 (56.3%) · avg over +2.9 ppg
Under 44.5
Undercooling
In wind of 11+ mph
55.3%
win rate
668-540-17
record
+5.6%
roi
+0.8ppg
avg under
📈
WLLLLWLWWLLWWWWLWLLL
last 20: 9-11 (45.0%) · avg under -4.3 ppg
last 10: 5-5 (50.0%) · avg under -4.7 ppg
since 2003: 668-540-17 (55.3%) · avg under +0.8 ppg
- Stade de France · neutral site
- Roof · dome
- Surface · turf
Run your own query on this matchup
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Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the
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