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San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons

SF@ATL SF -2.5 · O/U 49.5
SF
Sunday 2026-10-25
1:00pm
FOX
Indoors
ATL
How to attack
SF offense vs ATL defense
  • Quick game blunts the rushSolidBrock Purdy is hit or sacked on only 11.6% of dropbacks (2nd-fewest), which takes the edge off ATL's rush (17.2%, 6th-most).
    • LB Kendal Daniels (4 starts) is Questionable this week (neck)
    • LB Divine Deablo (5 starts) is Out this week (forearm)
    • SF's QB hit or sacked on 17% of dropbacks the last 2 games, 9% before
    • ATL above the league hit-and-sack rate in 5 of 6 games
    AngleBrock Purdy over 20.5 completions (-102 DK); Brock Purdy over 240.5 pass yds (-114 FD).
  • Run inside, not outsideShakyATL allows 4.0 per carry between the guards (23rd) but 3.8 outside the tackles (2nd). Christian McCaffrey has 63% of the backs' carries lately (14 a game).
    • Christian McCaffrey: 51 carries here, 4.1 per carry, 51% successful (league 3.7, 40%)
    • Two big plays make it (47 yds wk 5 vs BAL, 15 wk 5 vs BAL); without them 3.3 (league 3.7)
    • LB Kendal Daniels (4 starts) is Questionable this week (neck)
    • LB Divine Deablo (5 starts) is Out this week (forearm)
    AngleChristian McCaffrey over 60.5 rush yds (-113 DK); Christian McCaffrey over 15.5 carries (-104 DK). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
ATL offense vs SF defense
  • Tough sledding for Bijan RobinsonSolidSF ranks 2nd vs the run (3.4 per carry).
    • Bijan Robinson (Out): 111 carries here, 5.8 per carry, 50% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
    • Brian Robinson (Out): 53 carries here, 4.0 per carry, 42% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
    • SF allowed less than league average per carry in 5 of 6 games
    AngleBijan Robinson under 89.5 rush yds (-110 DK).
  • Attack the short leftMixedSF gives up 6.4 yds per target to the short left (32nd, 70 targets). Bijan Robinson has 15 targets there this season.
    • Bijan Robinson on these targets: 15, 87% caught, 5.8 yds each (league 70%, 5.8)
    • Two big plays make it (25 yds wk 4 vs DEN, 23 wk 6 vs WAS); without them 5.9 (league 5.8)
    • SF allowed more than league average per target in 5 of 6 games
    AngleBijan Robinson over 28.5 rec yds (-113 DK); Bijan Robinson over 11.5 longest catch (-122 DK).
  • Throw to the backsShakySF ranks 27th vs backs in EPA per target: 88% caught, 5.6 yds per target, 46 per game. Best fits: Bijan Robinson (12% of targets).
    • Bijan Robinson on these targets: 27, 74% caught, 5.3 yds each (league 78%, 5.5)
    • Two big plays make it (25 yds wk 4 vs DEN, 18 wk 4 vs DEN); without them 5.0 (league 5.5)
    • Mostly one game: wk 4 vs DEN, 8.0 yds per target on 14
    • SF allowed more than league average per target in 3 of 6 games
    AngleBijan Robinson over 28.5 rec yds (-113 DK); Bijan Robinson over 3.5 catches (-158 DK). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
Key injuriesSF Mike Evans WR (ribs) Out · ATL Brian Robinson RB (hamstring) Out
Motivation & storylines
  • StakesSF 6-0, 1st in the NFC West (leads); ATL 2-4, 2nd in the NFC South (1.5 back).
  • HistoryLast met 2025 wk 7: SF 20-10 at SF.
  • RevengeATL vs a former team: Samson Ebukam (DE, SF 2021-22).
  • StreakSF has won 6 straight (unbeaten).
W 23-17 vs WASLast weekL 23-31 vs CHI
ByeNext week@ TB
62OFF plays last game55
64DEF plays last game76
Miles flown, last 21 days
3,521 mi23rd6th849 mi
EPA rank · adjusted
2ndOffense22nd
7thDefense6th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
−2.5 SF vs ATL +2.5
third-down OFF4th22ndthird-down DEF
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 21st5th22ndDEF vs 12 personnel*
zone coverage*zone rate 12th9th24thOFF vs zone*
travel3,521 mi, 21 days23rd6thtravel849 mi, 21 days
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
−2.5 SF vs ATL +2.5
SF OFF vs ATL DEF
OFF vs man*2nd15thman coverage*man rate 12th
run blocking*3rd14thrun DEF up front*
play-action OFFPA rate 16th17th28thplay-action DEF
OFF vs zone*1st10thzone coverage*zone rate 21st
pass OFF1st8thpass DEF
OFF vs the blitz3rd9thblitzing DEFblitz rate 25th
run OFF3rd5thrun DEF
big-play OFF4th4thbig-play DEF
pass protection*5th1stpass rush*
protection vs no blitz4th3rdpass rush w/o blitz
early-down OFF1st4thearly-down DEF
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 31st5th7thDEF vs 11 personnel*
SF DEF vs ATL OFF
pass DEF10th23rdpass OFF
DEF vs 11 personnel*12th25th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 22nd
big-play DEF2nd11thbig-play OFF
man coverage*man rate 21st19th28thOFF vs man*
play-action DEF25th12thplay-action OFFPA rate 19th
run DEF16th4thrun OFF
pass rush*15th10thpass protection*
pass rush w/o blitz10th11thprotection vs no blitz
third-down DEF14th14ththird-down OFF
early-down DEF12th14thearly-down OFF
run DEF up front*22nd26thrun blocking*
blitzing DEFblitz rate 13th17th16thOFF vs the blitz
DEF vs 12 personnel*13th13th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 7th
Pace & tendencies
30.8s22ndSeconds between snaps32nd33.5s
58.530thPlays per game25th62.0
+1.6%9thPass rate over expected30th-9.9%
2%30thNo-huddle rate17th5%
47%31stShotgun rate28th53%
78%1stMotion rate16th59%
23%16thPlay-action rate19th22%
3.08s8thTime to throw*29th2.56s
32%31st11 personnel*22nd58%
20%21st12 personnel*7th31%
32%13thDEF blitz rate25th26%
17%21stDEF man rate*12th24%
66.510thPlays faced per game5th70.2
SF away 1 ATS trend
Over / Under
2 trends

Run your own query on this matchup

Every other game this week: Week 7 2026 trends.

Gamble Responsibly. 21+ Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at your book before betting. College Football betting trends by week and game. * Stats marked with an asterisk (pressure, run blocking, man/zone coverage, time to throw, personnel): Sharp Football Analysis.