Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers Betting Trends

How to attack

TB offense vs CAR defense

Time to throw for Jalon DanielsSolidCAR hits or sacks the QB on only 12.2% of dropbacks (28th-most).
- LB Jaelan Phillips (4 starts) is Out this week (hamstring)
- T Luke Goedeke (6 starts) is Out (calf)
- TB's QB hit or sacked on 11% of dropbacks the last 2 games, 17% before
- CAR below the league hit-and-sack rate in 4 of 5 games
Angleno pass yds line posted yet for Jalon Daniels (the data leans over).
Blitz troubleCAR blitzes on 36.9% of dropbacks (7th-most); TB ranks 27th against the blitz.
Angleno pass yds line posted yet for Jalon Daniels (the data leans under).
Run inside, not outsideShakyCAR allows 4.7 per carry between the guards (29th) but 4.9 outside the tackles (8th). Bucky Irving has 77% of the backs' carries lately (19 a game).
- Without LB Patrick Jones II (wk 1, 2): 6.4 per carry on 36 carries; with him 2.5 on 29; expected back
- Bucky Irving: 52 carries here, 2.9 per carry, 33% successful (league 3.7, 40%)
- Two big plays make it (61 yds wk 1 vs CHI, 28 wk 1 vs CHI); without them 3.4 (league 3.7)
- LB Jaelan Phillips (4 starts) is Out this week (hamstring)
AngleBucky Irving over 65.5 rush yds (-114 DK); Bucky Irving over 15.5 carries (-105 DK). Weak case: the read is Shaky.

CAR offense vs TB defense

Time to throw for Bryce YoungSolidTB hits or sacks the QB on only 12.3% of dropbacks (29th-most).
- T Monroe Freeling (4 starts) is Questionable (knee)
- CAR's QB hit or sacked on 17% of dropbacks the last 2 games, 14% before
- TB below the league hit-and-sack rate in 4 of 6 games
- Last 2 games TB hit or sacked the QB on 14% of dropbacks; 11% before
AngleBryce Young over 253.5 pass yds (-113 DK).
Tough spot for Tetairoa McMillanMixedTB ranks 4th vs wide receivers (7.6 yds per target). He gets 28% of CAR's targets.
- Tetairoa McMillan on these targets: 48, 67% caught, 9.8 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
- TB allowed less than league average per target in 3 of 6 games
AngleTetairoa McMillan under 70.5 rec yds (-113 DK); Tetairoa McMillan under 5.5 catches (-146 FD).

Key injuriesTB Baker Mayfield QB (thumb) Questionable, Emeka Egbuka WR (concussion) Out

Motivation & storylines

StakesDivision game. CAR leads the NFC South by 1.5; TB 1-5, 2.5 back; CAR 3-2.
HistoryLast met 2025 wk 18: TB 16-14 at TB.
History2025 series: Split (20-23 at CAR, 14-16 at TB).
RevengeTB vs a former team: A'Shawn Robinson (DL, CAR 2024-25); Baker Mayfield (QB, CAR 2022).
SpotTB lost 26-19 vs PIT in overtime last week.