Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
ATL@
TB
TB -1.5 · O/U 44.5
ATLSunday 2026-11-01
1:00pm
FOX
82°F · wind 7 mph · 💧 7%
TBHow to attack
ATL offense vs TB defense- Time to throw for Michael Penix Jr.SolidTB hits or sacks the QB on only 12.3% of dropbacks (29th-most).
- ATL's QB hit or sacked on 16% of dropbacks the last 2 games, 11% before
- TB below the league hit-and-sack rate in 4 of 6 games
- Last 2 games TB hit or sacked the QB on 14% of dropbacks; 11% before
AngleMichael Penix Jr. over 227.5 pass yds (-113 DK). - Tough spot for Drake LondonMixedTB ranks 4th vs wide receivers (7.6 yds per target). He gets 31% of ATL's targets.
- Drake London on these targets: 46, 67% caught, 12.0 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
- TB allowed less than league average per target in 3 of 6 games
AngleDrake London under 83.5 rec yds (-114 FD); Drake London under 5.5 catches (+112 FD).
TB offense vs ATL defense- Run inside, not outsideShakyATL allows 4.0 per carry between the guards (23rd) but 3.8 outside the tackles (2nd). Bucky Irving has 77% of the backs' carries lately (19 a game).
- Bucky Irving: 52 carries here, 2.9 per carry, 33% successful (league 3.7, 40%)
- Two big plays make it (47 yds wk 5 vs BAL, 15 wk 5 vs BAL); without them 3.3 (league 3.7)
- Mostly one game: wk 5 vs BAL, 6.4 per carry on 18
- ATL allowed more than league average per carry in 1 of 6 games
AngleBucky Irving over 65.5 rush yds (-114 DK); Bucky Irving over 15.5 carries (-105 DK). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
Motivation & storylines
- StakesDivision game. CAR leads the NFC South by 1.5; ATL 2-4, 1.5 back; TB 1-5, 2.5 back.
- HistoryLast met 2025 wk 15: ATL 29-28 at TB.
- History2025 series: Split (23-20 at ATL, 29-28 at TB).
- SpotTB lost 26-19 vs PIT in overtime last week.
vs SFLast week@ CAR
int'l CINNext week@ CHI
–OFF plays last game–
–DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
415 mi4th11th1,020 mi
Exclude ATL weeks
Exclude TB weeks
EPA rank · adjusted
23rdOffense29th
6thDefense3rd
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+1.5 ATL vs TB −1.5
vs TB −1.5big-play DEF4th29thbig-play OFF
pass DEF7th30thpass OFF
zone coverage*zone rate 21st10th32ndOFF vs zone*
pass protection*10th31stpass rush*
early-down DEF4th24thearly-down OFF
DEF vs 11 personnel*7th26th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 5th
blitzing DEFblitz rate 25th9th27thOFF vs the blitz
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 22nd25th2ndDEF vs 11 personnel*
OFF vs man*28th8thman coverage*man rate 23rd
OFF vs zone*24th6thzone coverage*zone rate 10th
pass OFF23rd8thpass DEF
OFF vs the blitz16th1stblitzing DEFblitz rate 3rd
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
+1.5 ATL vs TB −1.5
vs TB −1.5ATL OFF vs TB DEF
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 7th13th27thDEF vs 12 personnel*
protection vs no blitz11th24thpass rush w/o blitz
play-action OFFPA rate 19th12th24thplay-action DEF
big-play OFF12th20thbig-play DEF
run blocking*26th17thrun DEF up front*
third-down OFF14th6ththird-down DEF
run OFF4th6thrun DEF
early-down OFF14th14thearly-down DEF
ATL DEF vs TB OFF
run DEF5th15thrun OFF
run DEF up front*14th24thrun blocking*
man coverage*man rate 12th15th23rdOFF vs man*
pass rush*1st6thpass protection*
pass rush w/o blitz3rd2ndprotection vs no blitz
third-down DEF23rd21stthird-down OFF
play-action DEF28th32ndplay-action OFFPA rate 22nd
DEF vs 12 personnel*22nd26th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 17th
Pace & tendencies
33.5s32ndSeconds between snaps29th32.0s
62.025thPlays per game13th66.0
-9.9%30thPass rate over expected19th-1.0%
5%17thNo-huddle rate11th8%
53%28thShotgun rate7th68%
59%16thMotion rate4th71%
22%19thPlay-action rate22nd21%
2.56s29thTime to throw*5th3.11s
58%22nd11 personnel*5th71%
31%7th12 personnel*17th21%
26%25thDEF blitz rate3rd42%
24%12thDEF man rate*23rd17%
70.25thPlays faced per game26th61.8
ATL
away
2 ATS trends · 1 🔥
ATL+1.5
ATSfadeFading Mayfield as a fav, outdoors
68.4%
win rate
39-18-1
record
+30.6%
roi
+2.9ppg
avg cover
🔥
WLLWLWLLWWWLWWWWWWWW
last 20: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg cover +2.0 ppg
last 10: 9-1 (90.0%) · avg cover +5.3 ppg
since 2003: 39-18-1 (68.4%) · avg cover +2.9 ppg
ATL+1.5
ATSfadeFading Bowles as a home fav of 3 points or fewer
72.2%
win rate
13-5-1
record
+37.9%
roi
+4.5ppg
avg cover
📈
LWWWLWWLWWWPLWLWWWW
last 10: 7-2-1 (77.8%) · avg cover +3.2 ppg
since 2003: 13-5-1 (72.2%) · avg cover +4.5 ppg
TB
home
1 ATS trend
TB-1.5
ATSfadeFading Stefanski on the road
61.1%
win rate
33-21-1
record
+16.7%
roi
+3.1ppg
avg cover
📈
LWWLWWWWWWWWWWLWLWLL
last 20: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg cover +2.8 ppg
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg cover -1.3 ppg
since 2003: 33-21-1 (61.1%) · avg cover +3.1 ppg
Over / Under
2 trends
Under 44.5
Under
Todd Bowles as a fav of 3 points or fewer
70.6%
win rate
24-10
record
+34.8%
roi
+2.8ppg
avg under
🔥
WWLWWWLLWWWLWWWWWLWW
last 20: 15-5 (75.0%) · avg under +5.2 ppg
last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg under +5.3 ppg
since 2003: 24-10 (70.6%) · avg under +2.8 ppg
Under 44.5
Undercooling
In a division game, outdoors, with a spread of 3 points or fewer
55.5%
win rate
308-247-10
record
+5.9%
roi
+0.9ppg
avg under
📈
LWLLLWWWWLLLLLWLWLWL
last 20: 8-12 (40.0%) · avg under -1.3 ppg
last 10: 3-7 (30.0%) · avg under -5.1 ppg
since 2003: 308-247-10 (55.5%) · avg under +0.9 ppg
- Raymond James Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
- Surface · grass
Run your own query on this matchup
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