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Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
BAL@BUF BUF -3 · O/U 52.5
BAL
Sunday 2026-11-01
1:00pm
CBS
57°F · wind 14 mph · 💧 18%
BUF
How to attack
BAL offense vs BUF defense
  • Throw to the wide receiversMixedBUF ranks 27th vs wide receivers in EPA per target: 64% caught, 8.1 yds per target, 174 per game. Best fits: Zay Flowers (33% of targets, 3 in the red zone).
    • Without CB DeAundre Alford (wk 5): 6.0 yds per target on 32 targets; with him 9.1 on 75; expected back
    • Zay Flowers on these targets: 42, 76% caught, 11.2 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
    • Two big plays make it (44 yds wk 6 vs LV, 35 wk 1 vs HOU); without them 7.6 (league 8.1)
    • BUF allowed more than league average per target in 4 of 6 games
    Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Zay Flowers (the data leans over).
  • Beat the blitzBUF blitzes on 35.2% of dropbacks (9th-most); BAL ranks 5th in EPA against the blitz.
    Angleno pass yds line posted yet for Tyler Huntley (the data leans over).
  • Lean on play actionBAL uses play action on 27.8% of dropbacks (7th-most) and ranks 1st in EPA on it; BUF ranks 27th against it.
    Angleno pass yds line posted yet for Tyler Huntley (the data leans over).
BUF offense vs BAL defense
  • Throw to the wide receiversMixedBAL ranks 28th vs wide receivers in EPA per target: 67% caught, 8.8 yds per target, 176 per game. Best fits: Khalil Shakir (21% of targets, 3 in the red zone) and Keon Coleman (19% of targets, 3 in the red zone).
    • Without CB Marlon Humphrey (wk 4): 10.2 yds per target on 21 targets; with him 8.5 on 99; expected back
    • Khalil Shakir on these targets: 32, 69% caught, 8.8 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
    • Two big plays make it (49 yds wk 3 vs DAL, 36 wk 5 vs ATL); without them 8.2 (league 8.1)
    • BAL allowed more than league average per target in 4 of 6 games
    Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Khalil Shakir (the data leans over).
  • Quick game blunts the rushSolidJosh Allen is hit or sacked on only 12.7% of dropbacks (3rd-fewest), which takes the edge off BAL's rush (16.9%, 8th-most).
    • BUF's QB hit or sacked on 10% of dropbacks the last 2 games, 14% before
    • BAL above the league hit-and-sack rate in 4 of 6 games
    • Last 2 games BAL hit or sacked the QB on 19% of dropbacks; 16% before
    Angleno completions line posted yet for Josh Allen (the data leans over).
  • Play action is less of a weapon hereBUF uses it on 28.1% of dropbacks (6th-most); BAL ranks 1st against it.
    Angleno pass yds line posted yet for Josh Allen (the data leans under).
Motivation & storylines
  • StakesBAL 4-2, 2nd in the AFC North; BUF 5-1, 1st in the AFC East (leads).
  • HistoryLast met 2025 wk 1: BUF 41-40 at BUF.
  • HistoryBUF eliminated BAL in the 2024 Divisional round (27-25).
  • SpotBUF off a bye; BAL lost 13-10 at CLE as a 3-point favorite last week.
vs CINLast weekBye
vs JAXNext week@ MIN
–OFF plays last game65
–DEF plays last game66
Miles flown, last 21 days
883 mi10th27th8,371 mi
EPA rank · adjusted
9thOffense1st
20thDefense31st
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+3 BAL vs BUF −3
early-down OFF2nd31stearly-down DEF
play-action OFFPA rate 7th1st27thplay-action DEF
OFF vs zone*6th31stzone coverage*zone rate 7th
pass OFF5th29thpass DEF
OFF vs the blitz5th29thblitzing DEFblitz rate 9th
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 4th8th29thDEF vs 12 personnel*
run OFF9th29thrun DEF
big-play OFF3rd22ndbig-play DEF
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 24th14th31stDEF vs 11 personnel*
travel883 mi, 21 days10th27thtravel8,371 mi, 21 days
man coverage*man rate 14th25th1stOFF vs man*
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
+3 BAL vs BUF −3
BAL OFF vs BUF DEF
OFF vs man*7th16thman coverage*man rate 26th
protection vs no blitz7th13thpass rush w/o blitz
pass protection*24th12thpass rush*
third-down OFF27th26ththird-down DEF
run blocking*10th9thrun DEF up front*
BAL DEF vs BUF OFF
run DEF15th1strun OFF
big-play DEF13th1stbig-play OFF
blitzing DEFblitz rate 14th14th2ndOFF vs the blitz
zone coverage*zone rate 19th15th3rdOFF vs zone*
run DEF up front*12th1strun blocking*
DEF vs 11 personnel*17th6th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 25th
third-down DEF11th2ndthird-down OFF
pass DEF15th7thpass OFF
pass rush w/o blitz11th3rdprotection vs no blitz
pass rush*19th22ndpass protection*
early-down DEF8th6thearly-down OFF
play-action DEF1st3rdplay-action OFFPA rate 6th
DEF vs 12 personnel*5th1st12-personnel OFF*12 rate 18th
Pace & tendencies
32.2s30thSeconds between snaps19th30.6s
63.221stPlays per game21st63.2
-3.4%25thPass rate over expected14th-0.4%
4%24thNo-huddle rate21st4%
56%24thShotgun rate32nd47%
64%6thMotion rate6th64%
28%7thPlay-action rate6th28%
3.15s4thTime to throw*3rd3.16s
50%24th11 personnel*25th49%
35%4th12 personnel*18th21%
31%14thDEF blitz rate9th35%
22%14thDEF man rate*26th15%
64.219thPlays faced per game2nd72.5
BAL away 1 ATS trend · 1 🔥
BUF home 1 ATS trend
Over / Under
2 trends

Run your own query on this matchup

Every other game this week: Week 8 2026 trends.

Gamble Responsibly. 21+ Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at your book before betting. College Football betting trends by week and game. * Stats marked with an asterisk (pressure, run blocking, man/zone coverage, time to throw, personnel): Sharp Football Analysis.