Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
CAR@
GB
GB -3 · O/U 47.5
CARThursday 2026-10-29
8:15pm
PRIME VIDEO
58°F · wind 5 mph · 💧 8%
GBHow to attack
CAR offense vs GB defense- Tough spot for Tetairoa McMillanSolidGB ranks 1st vs wide receivers (6.4 yds per target). He gets 28% of CAR's targets.
- Tetairoa McMillan on these targets: 48, 67% caught, 9.8 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
- GB allowed less than league average per target in 5 of 6 games
- Last 2 games GB allowed 4.9 per target; 7.7 before
AngleTetairoa McMillan under 70.5 rec yds (-113 DK); Tetairoa McMillan under 5.5 catches (-146 FD). - Run the ballShakyGB ranks 28th vs the run (3.9 per carry). Chuba Hubbard has 88% of the backs' carries lately (22 a game).
- Without LB Edgerrin Cooper (wk 5, 6): 3.0 per carry on 36 carries; with him 4.2 on 117; expected back
- Chuba Hubbard: 89 carries here, 4.8 per carry, 48% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
- Two big plays make it (55 yds wk 3 vs ATL, 31 wk 3 vs ATL); without them 3.4 (league 3.9)
- Mostly one game: wk 3 vs ATL, 6.1 per carry on 40
AngleChuba Hubbard over 67.5 rush yds (-114 DK); Chuba Hubbard over 17.5 carries (-109 DK). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
GB offense vs CAR defense- Run inside, not outsideShakyCAR allows 4.7 per carry between the guards (29th) but 4.9 outside the tackles (8th).
- Without LB Patrick Jones II (wk 1, 2): 6.4 per carry on 36 carries; with him 2.5 on 29; expected back
- Two big plays make it (61 yds wk 1 vs CHI, 28 wk 1 vs CHI); without them 3.4 (league 3.7)
- Mostly one game: wk 1 vs CHI, 8.9 per carry on 16
- CAR allowed more than league average per carry in 2 of 5 games
Motivation & storylines
- StakesCAR 3-2, 1st in the NFC South (leads); GB 4-2, 3rd in the NFC North (1.5 back).
- HistoryLast met 2025 wk 9: CAR 16-13 at GB.
- RevengeCAR vs a former team: Rasheed Walker (T, GB 2023-25).
- SpotShort week for both.
vs TBLast week@ DET
vs DENNext week@ NE
–OFF plays last game–
–DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
1,642 mi15th7th585 mi
Exclude CAR weeks
Exclude GB weeks
EPA rank · adjusted
8thOffense14th
18thDefense13th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+3 CAR vs GB −3
vs GB −3run DEF7th31strun OFF
OFF vs man*6th26thman coverage*man rate 24th
DEF vs 12 personnel*8th23rd12-personnel OFF*12 rate 14th
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
+3 CAR vs GB −3
vs GB −3CAR OFF vs GB DEF
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 11th10th24thDEF vs 12 personnel*
run OFF16th27thrun DEF
OFF vs the blitz9th20thblitzing DEFblitz rate 12th
third-down OFF19th29ththird-down DEF
play-action OFFPA rate 10th16th5thplay-action DEF
pass protection*32nd22ndpass rush*
pass OFF14th6thpass DEF
run blocking*9th1strun DEF up front*
OFF vs zone*8th1stzone coverage*zone rate 9th
big-play OFF6th3rdbig-play DEF
protection vs no blitz25th27thpass rush w/o blitz
early-down OFF13th11thearly-down DEF
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 19th10th11thDEF vs 11 personnel*
CAR DEF vs GB OFF
early-down DEF13th25thearly-down OFF
pass rush*10th21stpass protection*
big-play DEF8th18thbig-play OFF
blitzing DEFblitz rate 7th8th14thOFF vs the blitz
zone coverage*zone rate 6th22nd11thOFF vs zone*
play-action DEF14th7thplay-action OFFPA rate 26th
pass DEF17th17thpass OFF
pass rush w/o blitz30th28thprotection vs no blitz
third-down DEF20th20ththird-down OFF
run DEF up front*23rd25thrun blocking*
man coverage*man rate 27th2nd3rdOFF vs man*
DEF vs 11 personnel*21st21st11-personnel OFF*11 rate 11th
Pace & tendencies
26.1s1stSeconds between snaps9th29.4s
71.82ndPlays per game18th63.8
+7.0%1stPass rate over expected10th+0.4%
5%19thNo-huddle rate7th10%
63%14thShotgun rate9th67%
58%18thMotion rate9th64%
25%10thPlay-action rate26th20%
2.87s17thTime to throw*32nd2.48s
60%19th11 personnel*11th62%
29%11th12 personnel*14th25%
37%7thDEF blitz rate12th34%
15%27thDEF man rate*24th17%
69.46thPlays faced per game7th68.8
GB
home
2 ATS trends
GB-3
ATSLaFleur at home
60.9%
win rate
39-25
record
+16.3%
roi
+1.8ppg
avg cover
📈
WLWLLWWWLWWLLLWWLLWW
last 20: 11-9 (55.0%) · avg cover +2.3 ppg
last 10: 5-5 (50.0%) · avg cover -1.6 ppg
since 2003: 39-25 (60.9%) · avg cover +1.8 ppg
GB-3
ATSfadeFading teams in primetime, playing 15°+ colder than at home
61.7%
win rate
29-18-1
record
+17.8%
roi
+3.9ppg
avg cover
📈
WWLWWLWLLLLWLWWLWWLW
last 20: 11-9 (55.0%) · avg cover +3.6 ppg
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg cover +8.2 ppg
since 2003: 29-18-1 (61.7%) · avg cover +3.9 ppg
Over / Under
3 trends
Over 47.5
Over
Dave Canales as a dog
64.7%
win rate
22-12
record
+23.5%
roi
+4.8ppg
avg over
📈
WWLWLWWWLWLWLWLLLWWW
last 20: 12-8 (60.0%) · avg over +4.3 ppg
last 10: 5-5 (50.0%) · avg over +4.9 ppg
since 2003: 22-12 (64.7%) · avg over +4.8 ppg
Under 47.5
Under
Bryce Young as a dog of 3 points or fewer
72.7%
win rate
8-3
record
+38.8%
roi
+1.7ppg
avg under
📈
WWWWWLLWWWL
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg under +1.6 ppg
since 2003: 8-3 (72.7%) · avg under +1.7 ppg
Under 47.5
Under
Jordan Love at home
64.0%
win rate
16-9-1
record
+22.2%
roi
+4.1ppg
avg under
📈
LWLPWWLWWLWWLWWWLLWW
last 20: 12-7-1 (63.2%) · avg under +4.4 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg under +8.3 ppg
since 2003: 16-9-1 (64.0%) · avg under +4.1 ppg
- Lambeau Field
- Roof · outdoors
- Surface · grass
Run your own query on this matchup
Every other game this week: Week 8 2026 trends.
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Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the
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