Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks
Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
CHI@
SEA
SEA -3 · O/U 46.5
CHIMonday 2026-11-02
8:15pm
ESPN
46°F · wind 4 mph · 💧 22%
SEAHow to attack
CHI offense vs SEA defense- Throw to the backsShakySEA ranks 31st vs backs in EPA per target: 89% caught, 5.1 yds per target, 31 per game. Best fits: D'Andre Swift (14% of targets).
- Without S Nick Emmanwori (wk 1, 2): 6.0 yds per target on 13 targets; with him 4.7 on 23; expected back
- D'Andre Swift on these targets: 25, 88% caught, 6.1 yds each (league 78%, 5.5)
- Mostly one game: wk 1 vs NE, 6.6 yds per target on 8
- SEA allowed more than league average per target in 1 of 5 games
Angleno rec yds line posted yet for D'Andre Swift (the data leans over). Weak case: the read is Shaky. - Tough sledding for D'Andre SwiftMixedSEA ranks 3rd vs the run (3.3 per carry).
- D'Andre Swift: 116 carries here, 4.1 per carry, 44% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
- SEA allowed less than league average per carry in 3 of 6 games
- Kyle Monangai: 60 carries here, 5.4 per carry, 42% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
- Roschon Johnson: 24 carries here, 3.6 per carry, 38% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
Angleno rush yds line posted yet for D'Andre Swift (the data leans under). - Play action is less of a weapon hereCHI uses it on 31.5% of dropbacks (3rd-most); SEA ranks 4th against it.Angleno pass yds line posted yet for Caleb Williams (the data leans under).
Motivation & storylines
- StakesCHI 5-2, 2nd in the NFC North (1 back); SEA 3-3, 2nd in the NFC West (3 back).
- HistoryLast met 2024 wk 17: SEA 6-3 at CHI -- first meeting since 2024.
- SpotCHI has 3 more days of rest; SEA lost 17-14 at DEN in overtime last week.
W 30-24 vs NELast weekvs KC
vs TBNext weekvs ARI
68OFF plays last game–
52DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
2,908 mi22nd17th2,035 mi
Exclude CHI weeks
Exclude SEA weeks
EPA rank · adjusted
7thOffense26th
19thDefense2nd
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+3 CHI vs SEA −3
vs SEA −3third-down DEF2nd30ththird-down OFF
DEF vs 11 personnel*5th32nd11-personnel OFF*11 rate 27th
pass rush*9th30thpass protection*
DEF vs 12 personnel*31st12th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 10th
protection vs no blitz19th1stpass rush w/o blitz
play-action OFFPA rate 3rd21st4thplay-action DEF
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
+3 CHI vs SEA −3
vs SEA −3CHI OFF vs SEA DEF
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 3rd18th4thDEF vs 12 personnel*
big-play OFF13th1stbig-play DEF
OFF vs zone*14th2ndzone coverage*zone rate 1st
pass protection*16th5thpass rush*
run OFF11th2ndrun DEF
early-down OFF8th2ndearly-down DEF
pass OFF4th2ndpass DEF
third-down OFF5th7ththird-down DEF
run blocking*5th3rdrun DEF up front*
OFF vs the blitz7th4thblitzing DEFblitz rate 30th
OFF vs man*9th6thman coverage*man rate 32nd
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 26th4th4thDEF vs 11 personnel*
CHI DEF vs SEA OFF
pass rush w/o blitz16th29thprotection vs no blitz
man coverage*man rate 4th9th20thOFF vs man*
run DEF22nd30thrun OFF
play-action DEF23rd9thplay-action OFFPA rate 8th
big-play DEF29th16thbig-play OFF
early-down DEF27th16thearly-down OFF
pass DEF14th18thpass OFF
run DEF up front*30th27thrun blocking*
blitzing DEFblitz rate 5th12th11thOFF vs the blitz
zone coverage*zone rate 29th16th19thOFF vs zone*
Pace & tendencies
29.3s8thSeconds between snaps28th31.8s
74.41stPlays per game16th65.0
-1.2%21stPass rate over expected28th-7.0%
4%22ndNo-huddle rate29th2%
55%27thShotgun rate29th52%
52%24thMotion rate19th57%
32%3rdPlay-action rate8th27%
3.08s9thTime to throw*11th3.02s
47%26th11 personnel*27th45%
35%3rd12 personnel*10th29%
42%5thDEF blitz rate30th22%
33%4thDEF man rate*32nd7%
52.732ndPlays faced per game22nd62.7
CHI
away
2 ATS trends
CHI+3
ATSfadeFading Darnold as a home fav of 3 points or fewer
72.7%
win rate
8-3-1
record
+38.8%
roi
+3.2ppg
avg cover
📈
WLWWWWWLWLPW
last 10: 7-2-1 (77.8%) · avg cover +3.3 ppg
since 2003: 8-3-1 (72.7%) · avg cover +3.2 ppg
CHI+3
ATSWilliams outdoors
62.1%
win rate
18-11-2
record
+18.5%
roi
+2.7ppg
avg cover
📈
WLWWWLWLPWLWWLLWWWLW
last 20: 12-7-1 (63.2%) · avg cover +4.3 ppg
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg cover +3.6 ppg
since 2003: 18-11-2 (62.1%) · avg cover +2.7 ppg
Over / Under
3 trends
Over 46.5
Over
Mike Macdonald as a home fav
73.3%
win rate
11-4
record
+40.0%
roi
+6.2ppg
avg over
📈
WLWWWWWLLWWWLWW
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg over +5.3 ppg
since 2003: 11-4 (73.3%) · avg over +6.2 ppg
Over 46.5
Over
Caleb Williams on the road, outdoors
70.0%
win rate
7-3
record
+33.6%
roi
+11.3ppg
avg over
📈
LWWLWWLWWW
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg over +11.3 ppg
since 2003: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg over +11.3 ppg
Under 46.5
Under
Teams as a dog of 3 points or fewer, off a win, in primetime
55.8%
win rate
125-99-1
record
+6.5%
roi
+0.9ppg
avg under
📈
WWWWWLWWWWLLWWLLLWWL
last 20: 13-7 (65.0%) · avg under +4.2 ppg
last 10: 4-6 (40.0%) · avg under -2.2 ppg
since 2003: 125-99-1 (55.8%) · avg under +0.9 ppg
- Lumen Field
- Roof · outdoors
- Surface · turf
Run your own query on this matchup
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Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the
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