Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
CLE@
PIT
PIT -4.5 · O/U 38.5
CLESunday 2026-11-01
1:00pm
CBS
60°F · wind 7 mph · 💧 18%
PITHow to attack
PIT offense vs CLE defense- Play to its strengthMixedPIT's inside run game ranks 1st in EPA; CLE ranks 15th against it. Jaylen Warren has 74% of the backs' carries lately (15 a game).
- Jaylen Warren: 41 carries here, 6.2 per carry, 54% successful (league 3.7, 40%)
- Rico Dowdle: 15 carries here, 4.3 per carry, 33% successful (league 3.7, 40%)
AngleJaylen Warren over 63.5 rush yds (-114 FD).
Motivation & storylines
- StakesDivision game. AFC North is tied at the top; CLE 4-2; PIT 4-2.
- HistoryLast met 2026 wk 4: CLE 27-24 at CLE.
- History2025 series: Split (9-23 at PIT, 6-13 at CLE).
- SpotCLE won 13-10 vs BAL as a 3-point underdog last week; PIT won 26-19 at TB in overtime last week.
@ TENLast weekint'l NO
@ NONext weekBye
–OFF plays last game–
–DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
1,032 mi12th28th9,521 mi
Exclude CLE weeks
Exclude PIT weeks
EPA rank · adjusted
25thOffense18th
10thDefense12th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+4.5 CLE vs PIT −4.5
vs PIT −4.5pass DEF5th26thpass OFF
blitzing DEFblitz rate 27th16th32ndOFF vs the blitz
zone coverage*zone rate 32nd11th27thOFF vs zone*
travel1,032 mi, 21 days12th28thtravel9,521 mi, 21 days
man coverage*man rate 1st17th32ndOFF vs man*
third-down OFF31st3rdthird-down DEF
run blocking*32nd7thrun DEF up front*
run OFF29th12thrun DEF
protection vs no blitz31st14thpass rush w/o blitz
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
+4.5 CLE vs PIT −4.5
vs PIT −4.5CLE OFF vs PIT DEF
OFF vs the blitz15th27thblitzing DEFblitz rate 24th
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 29th16th25thDEF vs 12 personnel*
big-play OFF28th15thbig-play DEF
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 4th19th6thDEF vs 11 personnel*
play-action OFFPA rate 27th27th15thplay-action DEF
pass protection*31st20thpass rush*
pass OFF21st11thpass DEF
OFF vs zone*10th4thzone coverage*zone rate 8th
early-down OFF21st18thearly-down DEF
OFF vs man*27th24thman coverage*man rate 25th
CLE DEF vs PIT OFF
third-down DEF12th23rdthird-down OFF
DEF vs 12 personnel*17th28th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 9th
early-down DEF9th19thearly-down OFF
pass rush*3rd11thpass protection*
play-action DEF3rd11thplay-action OFFPA rate 29th
DEF vs 11 personnel*10th18th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 9th
run DEF20th10thrun OFF
big-play DEF24th23rdbig-play OFF
pass rush w/o blitz12th13thprotection vs no blitz
run DEF up front*13th8thrun blocking*
Pace & tendencies
30.0s15thSeconds between snaps14th29.9s
61.526thPlays per game11th66.5
+0.1%11thPass rate over expected3rd+5.1%
4%25thNo-huddle rate8th9%
78%1stShotgun rate11th67%
51%28thMotion rate26th51%
18%27thPlay-action rate29th17%
3.10s6thTime to throw*26th2.68s
72%4th11 personnel*9th63%
14%29th12 personnel*9th29%
24%27thDEF blitz rate24th26%
49%1stDEF man rate*25th16%
65.216thPlays faced per game21st62.8
CLE
away
1 ATS trend · 1 🔥
CLE+4.5
ATSfadeFading home teams, in a division game, on 4,500+ miles of travel in three weeks
59.6%
win rate
196-133-8
record
+13.7%
roi
+0.9ppg
avg cover
🔥
WLLWLWLLLWWLLLWWWWWW
last 20: 11-9 (55.0%) · avg cover -1.6 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg cover -0.3 ppg
since 2003: 196-133-8 (59.6%) · avg cover +0.9 ppg
PIT
home
2 ATS trends · 2 🔥
PIT-4.5
ATSRodgers at home
62.5%
win rate
85-51-4
record
+19.3%
roi
+2.7ppg
avg cover
🔥
WLLWLLLWLWLWWLWWLWWW
last 20: 11-9 (55.0%) · avg cover +0.4 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg cover +1.6 ppg
since 2003: 85-51-4 (62.5%) · avg cover +2.7 ppg
PIT-4.5
ATSMcCarthy as a fav
59.6%
win rate
118-80-5
record
+13.8%
roi
+2.0ppg
avg cover
🔥
WLWWWWWWLWLWLLLWWLWW
last 20: 13-7 (65.0%) · avg cover +3.1 ppg
last 10: 5-5 (50.0%) · avg cover -3.4 ppg
since 2003: 118-80-5 (59.6%) · avg cover +2.0 ppg
Over / Under
1 trend
Over 38.5
Over
Mike McCarthy as a home fav of more than 3 points
60.4%
win rate
64-42
record
+15.3%
roi
+3.8ppg
avg over
📈
WLLWWWWWWLWWWWLLWWWL
last 20: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg over +10.1 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg over +10.5 ppg
since 2003: 64-42 (60.4%) · avg over +3.8 ppg
- Acrisure Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
- Surface · grass
Run your own query on this matchup
Every other game this week: Week 8 2026 trends.
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Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the
closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at
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