Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
IND@
JAX
JAX -7.5 · O/U 47.5
INDSunday 2026-11-01
1:00pm
CBS
78°F · wind 11 mph · 💧 21%
JAXHow to attack
IND offense vs JAX defense- Protect the ballJAX has 9 takeaways (5th-most); IND has 11 giveaways (4th-most per play).AngleDaniel Jones over 0.5 INTs (-117 DK).
JAX offense vs IND defense- Run the ballMixedIND ranks 31st vs the run (4.5 per carry). Bhayshul Tuten has 67% of the backs' carries lately (17 a game).
- Bhayshul Tuten: 94 carries here, 4.1 per carry, 43% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
- Two big plays make it (50 yds wk 5 vs PIT, 35 wk 4 vs WAS); without them 4.0 (league 3.9)
- IND allowed more than league average per carry in 4 of 6 games
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.: 39 carries here, 4.3 per carry, 46% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
Angleno rush yds line posted yet for Bhayshul Tuten (the data leans over). - Time to throw for Trevor LawrenceMixedIND hits or sacks the QB on only 11.7% of dropbacks (26th-most).
- Without LB Jaylon Carlies (wk 5, 6): 5% of dropbacks on 61 dropbacks; with him 11% on 117; expected back
- JAX's QB hit or sacked on 11% of dropbacks the last 2 games, 18% before
- IND below the league hit-and-sack rate in 4 of 6 games
- Last 2 games IND hit or sacked the QB on 5% of dropbacks; 14% before
Angleno pass yds line posted yet for Trevor Lawrence (the data leans over).
Motivation & storylines
- StakesDivision game. JAX leads the AFC South by 2; IND 2-4, 2 back; JAX 4-2.
- HistoryLast met 2025 wk 17: JAX 23-17 at IND.
- History2025 series: JAX swept IND (19-36 at JAX, 23-17 at IND).
- RevengeIND vs a former team: Laquon Treadwell (WR, JAX 2021).
- SpotJAX off a bye; IND lost 26-20 vs TEN as a 6.5-point favorite last week.
@ MINLast weekBye
vs DALNext week@ BAL
–OFF plays last game69
–DEF plays last game63
Miles flown, last 21 days
1,721 mi16th24th4,264 mi
Exclude IND weeks
Exclude JAX weeks
EPA rank · adjusted
24thOffense5th
22ndDefense15th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+7.5 IND vs JAX −7.5
vs JAX −7.5protection vs no blitz5th22ndpass rush w/o blitz
run DEF31st6thrun OFF
OFF vs man*25th1stman coverage*man rate 11th
pass rush*27th4thpass protection*
zone coverage*zone rate 26th25th2ndOFF vs zone*
OFF vs the blitz22nd2ndblitzing DEFblitz rate 15th
play-action DEF19th2ndplay-action OFFPA rate 14th
DEF vs 11 personnel*23rd8th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 14th
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
+7.5 IND vs JAX −7.5
vs JAX −7.5IND OFF vs JAX DEF
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 17th15th28thDEF vs 11 personnel*
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 8th14th3rdDEF vs 12 personnel*
play-action OFFPA rate 5th25th17thplay-action DEF
OFF vs zone*30th24thzone coverage*zone rate 22nd
pass OFF27th23rdpass DEF
run OFF5th4thrun DEF
big-play OFF20th23rdbig-play DEF
pass protection*14th18thpass rush*
third-down OFF17th16ththird-down DEF
early-down OFF22nd21stearly-down DEF
run blocking*12th15thrun DEF up front*
IND DEF vs JAX OFF
early-down DEF23rd9thearly-down OFF
blitzing DEFblitz rate 31st22nd8thOFF vs the blitz
pass DEF12th3rdpass OFF
big-play DEF12th7thbig-play OFF
pass rush w/o blitz21st26thprotection vs no blitz
third-down DEF4th6ththird-down OFF
run DEF up front*26th28thrun blocking*
man coverage*man rate 7th12th16thOFF vs man*
DEF vs 12 personnel*6th2nd12-personnel OFF*12 rate 12th
Pace & tendencies
31.2s24thSeconds between snaps17th30.4s
67.88thPlays per game24th62.5
-0.7%17thPass rate over expected13th-0.4%
3%27thNo-huddle rate26th3%
62%15thShotgun rate26th55%
61%13thMotion rate8th64%
29%5thPlay-action rate14th23%
2.78s19thTime to throw*24th2.71s
60%17th11 personnel*14th60%
29%8th12 personnel*12th28%
21%31stDEF blitz rate15th31%
30%7thDEF man rate*11th26%
60.829thPlays faced per game24th62.3
IND
away
1 ATS trend
IND+7.5
ATSIn a division game, against a team off a bye, in wind of 11+ mph
62.8%
win rate
27-16
record
+19.9%
roi
+3.1ppg
avg cover
📈
WLWWWLLLWWWLLWLWLWWW
last 20: 12-8 (60.0%) · avg cover +1.8 ppg
last 10: 6-4 (60.0%) · avg cover +1.8 ppg
since 2003: 27-16 (62.8%) · avg cover +3.1 ppg
JAX
home
1 ATS trend
JAX-7.5
ATSCoen at home
81.8%
win rate
9-2
record
+56.2%
roi
+12.9ppg
avg cover
📈
WWWLWWWWLWW
last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg cover +13.0 ppg
since 2003: 9-2 (81.8%) · avg cover +12.9 ppg
Over / Under
2 trends
Under 47.5
Under
Daniel Jones as a dog, outdoors
69.4%
win rate
34-15-2
record
+32.5%
roi
+2.3ppg
avg under
🔥
PLWWWWWWWWWWLWWLLWLL
last 20: 13-6-1 (68.4%) · avg under +1.4 ppg
last 10: 5-5 (50.0%) · avg under +0.4 ppg
since 2003: 34-15-2 (69.4%) · avg under +2.3 ppg
Under 47.5
Undercooling
In wind of 11+ mph
55.3%
win rate
668-540-17
record
+5.6%
roi
+0.8ppg
avg under
📈
WLLLLWLWWLLWWWWLWLLL
last 20: 9-11 (45.0%) · avg under -4.3 ppg
last 10: 5-5 (50.0%) · avg under -4.7 ppg
since 2003: 668-540-17 (55.3%) · avg under +0.8 ppg
- EverBank Stadium
- Roof · outdoors
- Surface · grass
Run your own query on this matchup
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