Slim Sports
Games 🔥 Trends Fantasy Survivor Research

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
KC@DEN KC -1.5 · O/U 42.5
KC
Sunday 2026-11-01
4:25pm
CBS
65°F · wind 3 mph · 💧 18%
DEN
How to attack
KC offense vs DEN defense
  • Run the ballShakyDEN ranks 29th vs the run (4.4 per carry). Kenneth Walker III has 86% of the backs' carries lately (20 a game).
    • Kenneth Walker III: 106 carries here, 6.3 per carry, 48% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
    • Two big plays make it (60 yds wk 1 vs KC, 42 wk 5 vs LAC); without them 3.8 (league 3.9)
    • Mostly one game: wk 1 vs KC, 6.2 per carry on 32
    • DEN allowed more than league average per carry in 4 of 6 games
    Angleno rush yds line posted yet for Kenneth Walker III (the data leans over). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
  • Beat the blitzDEN blitzes on 36.6% of dropbacks (8th-most); KC ranks 6th in EPA against the blitz.
    Angleno pass yds line posted yet for Patrick Mahomes (the data leans over).
  • Play action is less of a weapon hereKC uses it on 34.9% of dropbacks (1st-most); DEN ranks 2nd against it.
    Angleno pass yds line posted yet for Patrick Mahomes (the data leans under).
DEN offense vs KC defense
  • Tough spot for Jaylen WaddleSolidKC ranks 2nd vs wide receivers (6.4 yds per target). He gets 24% of DEN's targets.
    • Without CB Mansoor Delane (wk 2): 8.3 yds per target on 18 targets; with him 6.6 on 54; expected back
    • Jaylen Waddle on these targets: 38, 58% caught, 6.0 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
    • KC allowed less than league average per target in 4 of 5 games
    AngleJaylen Waddle under 51.5 rec yds (-111 DK); Jaylen Waddle under 4.5 catches (-102 DK).
Motivation & storylines
  • StakesDivision game. KC leads the AFC West by 1.5; KC 5-0; DEN 4-2, 1.5 back.
  • HistoryLast met 2026 wk 1: KC 31-10 at KC.
  • History2025 series: DEN swept KC (19-22 at DEN, 20-13 at KC).
  • SpotDEN won 17-14 vs SEA in overtime last week.
@ SEALast week@ ARI
vs NYJNext week@ CAR
–OFF plays last game–
–DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
3,582 mi23rd13th1,175 mi
EPA rank · adjusted
4thOffense19th
11thDefense4th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
−1.5 KC vs DEN +1.5
big-play DEF7th30thbig-play OFF
early-down DEF6th28thearly-down OFF
pass DEF10th29thpass OFF
man coverage*man rate 8th11th30thOFF vs man*
DEF vs 11 personnel*3rd22nd11-personnel OFF*11 rate 10th
third-down OFF11th27ththird-down DEF
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 23rd2nd18thDEF vs 11 personnel*
third-down DEF10th25ththird-down OFF
DEF vs 12 personnel*7th22nd12-personnel OFF*12 rate 16th
protection vs no blitz24th2ndpass rush w/o blitz
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 6th17th1stDEF vs 12 personnel*
OFF vs zone*18th3rdzone coverage*zone rate 20th
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
−1.5 KC vs DEN +1.5
KC OFF vs DEN DEF
run OFF2nd11thrun DEF
OFF vs man*5th14thman coverage*man rate 13th
big-play OFF2nd10thbig-play DEF
pass OFF8th3rdpass DEF
pass protection*8th4thpass rush*
early-down OFF5th3rdearly-down DEF
run blocking*4th2ndrun DEF up front*
OFF vs the blitz6th10thblitzing DEFblitz rate 8th
play-action OFFPA rate 1st6th2ndplay-action DEF
KC DEF vs DEN OFF
run DEF3rd17thrun OFF
run DEF up front*6th13thrun blocking*
pass rush w/o blitz15th1stprotection vs no blitz
pass rush*25th25thpass protection*
blitzing DEFblitz rate 22nd25th28thOFF vs the blitz
play-action DEF21st23rdplay-action OFFPA rate 20th
zone coverage*zone rate 25th26th21stOFF vs zone*
Pace & tendencies
29.8s11thSeconds between snaps18th30.6s
63.419thPlays per game28th60.7
+4.3%4thPass rate over expected23rd-1.9%
0%32ndNo-huddle rate20th5%
60%18thShotgun rate13th67%
60%15thMotion rate12th61%
35%1stPlay-action rate20th22%
2.66s28thTime to throw*14th2.97s
53%23rd11 personnel*10th62%
33%6th12 personnel*16th22%
27%22ndDEF blitz rate8th37%
27%8thDEF man rate*13th22%
67.49thPlays faced per game4th70.3
KC away 1 ATS trend
DEN home 2 ATS trends
Over / Under
4 trends

Run your own query on this matchup

Every other game this week: Week 8 2026 trends.

Gamble Responsibly. 21+ Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at your book before betting. College Football betting trends by week and game. * Stats marked with an asterisk (pressure, run blocking, man/zone coverage, time to throw, personnel): Sharp Football Analysis.