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Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets

Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
LV@NYJ LV -1.5 · O/U 42.5
LV
Sunday 2026-11-01
1:00pm
FOX
57°F · wind 7 mph · 💧 8%
NYJ
How to attack
LV offense vs NYJ defense
  • Don't lean on the runMixedNYJ ranks 4th vs the run (4.1 per carry); LV's run game ranks 29th (3.1).
    • Without DE Kingsley Enagbare (wk 4): 4.6 per carry on 50 carries; with him 3.8 on 110; expected back
    • Ashton Jeanty: 98 carries here, 3.2 per carry, 32% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
    • NYJ allowed less than league average per carry in 3 of 6 games
    • Mike Washington Jr.: 34 carries here, 4.9 per carry, 32% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
    AngleAshton Jeanty under 56.5 rush yds (-115 DK).
  • Red-zone stalls likelyLV scores touchdowns on 54.2% of red-zone trips (24th); NYJ allows them on 52.4% (8th).
    • Matt Gay: 14 of 15 on field goals, 1 of 1 from 50+, long 59; missed in wk 5
    • NYJ allowed TDs on 11 of 21 trips (1/1, 2/3, 4/5, 2/7, 0/1, 2/4 by game)
    • LV scored TDs on 13 of 24 trips (3/4, 2/3, 3/6, 1/3, 2/3, 2/5 by game)
    AngleMatt Gay over 1.5 FGs made (-105 DK); Matt Gay over 6.5 kicking points (-109 DK).
  • Attack the short rightShakyNYJ gives up 5.2 yds per target to the short right (28th, 67 targets). Michael Mayer has 15 targets there this season.
    • Without S Andre Cisco (wk 4, 5, 6): 5.8 yds per target on 35 targets; with him 4.7 on 32; expected back
    • Michael Mayer on these targets: 15, 87% caught, 6.1 yds each (league 69%, 5.5)
    • Two big plays make it (20 yds wk 5 vs CLE, 16 wk 6 vs NE); without them 4.8 (league 5.5)
    • Mostly one game: wk 6 vs NE, 6.8 yds per target on 16
    AngleMichael Mayer over 30.5 rec yds (-111 DK); Michael Mayer over 14.5 longest catch (-106 DK). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
NYJ offense vs LV defense
  • Protect Geno SmithSolidNYJ lets its QB get hit or sacked on 17.3% of dropbacks (9th-most); LV gets there on 18.3% (4th-most). His EPA per dropback falls from +0.33 clean to -1.09 when hit.
    • Without DT Tonka Hemingway (wk 5, 6): 13% of dropbacks on 84 dropbacks; with him 21% on 156; expected back
    • NYJ's QB hit or sacked on 19% of dropbacks the last 2 games, 16% before
    • LV above the league hit-and-sack rate in 5 of 6 games
    • Last 2 games LV hit or sacked the QB on 13% of dropbacks; 21% before
    AngleGeno Smith under 223.5 pass yds (-114 FD); Geno Smith over 0.5 INTs (-101 DK).
  • Run outside, not insideShakyLV allows 6.0 per carry outside the tackles (31st) but 4.3 between the guards (1st). Braelon Allen has 79% of the backs' carries lately (18 a game).
    • Without CB Darien Porter (wk 2, 3, 4): 6.5 per carry on 28 carries; with him 5.5 on 24; expected back
    • Braelon Allen: 31 carries here, 4.9 per carry, 39% successful (league 4.5, 41%)
    • LV allowed more than league average per carry in 3 of 6 games
    • Breece Hall: 24 carries here, 3.5 per carry, 38% successful (league 4.5, 41%)
    Angleno rush yds line posted yet for Braelon Allen (the data leans over). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
  • Throw to the backsMixedLV ranks 32nd vs backs in EPA per target: 93% caught, 8.1 yds per target, 37 per game. Best fits: Braelon Allen (10% of targets).
    • Without S Treydan Stukes (wk 3): 3.8 yds per target on 6 targets; with him 8.9 on 18; expected back
    • Braelon Allen on these targets: 13, 69% caught, 3.5 yds each (league 78%, 5.5)
    • Mostly one game: wk 6 vs BUF, 14.5 yds per target on 6
    • LV allowed more than league average per target in 4 of 5 games
    Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Braelon Allen (the data leans over).
Motivation & storylines
  • StakesLV 3-3, 3rd in the AFC West (2.5 back); NYJ 2-4, 3rd in the AFC East (3 back).
  • HistoryLast met 2023 wk 10: LV 16-12 at LV -- first meeting since 2023.
  • RevengeLV vs a former team: Folorunso Fatukasi (DT, NYJ 2019-21).
  • RevengeNYJ vs a former team: Geno Smith (QB, LV 2025); Jordan Meredith (OL, LV 2024-25).
vs LALast weekvs MIA
@ SFNext week@ KC
–OFF plays last game–
–DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
2,228 mi19th3rd340 mi
EPA rank · adjusted
12thOffense20th
21stDefense7th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
−1.5 LV vs NYJ +1.5
pass rush w/o blitz5th20thprotection vs no blitz
play-action DEF29th10thplay-action OFFPA rate 24th
early-down DEF28th12thearly-down OFF
travel2,228 mi, 21 days19th3rdtravel340 mi, 21 days
run OFF32nd17thrun DEF
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
−1.5 LV vs NYJ +1.5
LV OFF vs NYJ DEF
third-down OFF7th19ththird-down DEF
protection vs no blitz32nd18thpass rush w/o blitz
big-play OFF15th5thbig-play DEF
pass OFF11th13thpass DEF
pass protection*18th23rdpass rush*
early-down OFF20th22ndearly-down DEF
run blocking*31st27thrun DEF up front*
OFF vs the blitz13th13thblitzing DEFblitz rate 6th
play-action OFFPA rate 15th5th10thplay-action DEF
OFF vs man*10th13thman coverage*man rate 10th
OFF vs zone*13th12thzone coverage*zone rate 23rd
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 32nd24th24thDEF vs 11 personnel*
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 2nd9th11thDEF vs 12 personnel*
LV DEF vs NYJ OFF
run DEF8th22ndrun OFF
third-down DEF18th28ththird-down OFF
blitzing DEFblitz rate 23rd11th19thOFF vs the blitz
pass rush*16th23rdpass protection*
DEF vs 12 personnel*18th6th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 13th
run DEF up front*32nd21strun blocking*
pass DEF25th16thpass OFF
big-play DEF21st14thbig-play OFF
DEF vs 11 personnel*30th23rd11-personnel OFF*11 rate 12th
man coverage*man rate 15th32nd26thOFF vs man*
zone coverage*zone rate 18th20th17thOFF vs zone*
Pace & tendencies
28.9s5thSeconds between snaps27th31.7s
66.710thPlays per game28th60.7
-0.9%18thPass rate over expected24th-3.4%
7%12thNo-huddle rate23rd4%
57%22ndShotgun rate19th59%
62%10thMotion rate31st47%
23%15thPlay-action rate24th20%
2.78s20thTime to throw*12th3.00s
18%32nd11 personnel*12th61%
46%2nd12 personnel*13th27%
27%23rdDEF blitz rate6th37%
20%15thDEF man rate*10th27%
65.515thPlays faced per game11th66.3
LV away 3 ATS trends
Over / Under
2 trends

Run your own query on this matchup

Every other game this week: Week 8 2026 trends.

Gamble Responsibly. 21+ Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at your book before betting. College Football betting trends by week and game. * Stats marked with an asterisk (pressure, run blocking, man/zone coverage, time to throw, personnel): Sharp Football Analysis.