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Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
MIN@DET DET -2.5 · O/U 46.5
MIN
Sunday 2026-11-01
1:00pm
FOX
Indoors
DET
How to attack
MIN offense vs DET defense
  • Get the tight end involvedMixedDET ranks 30th vs tight ends in EPA per target: 78% caught, 8.4 yds per target, 109 per game. Best fits: T.J. Hockenson (19% of targets, 3 in the red zone).
    • T.J. Hockenson on these targets: 27, 85% caught, 7.5 yds each (league 72%, 7.0)
    • DET allowed more than league average per target in 3 of 5 games
    • Last 2 games DET allowed 7.5 per target; 9.0 before
    AngleT.J. Hockenson over 35.5 rec yds (-109 DK); T.J. Hockenson over 4.5 catches (+114 DK).
  • Attack the deep rightMixedDET gives up 17.5 yds per target to the deep right (32nd, 17 targets). T.J. Hockenson has 3 targets there this season.
    • Without CB Rock Ya-Sin (wk 4, 5): 11.8 yds per target on 9 targets; with him 24.0 on 6; expected back
    • Mostly one game: wk 1 vs NO, 28.8 yds per target on 5
    • DET allowed more than league average per target in 2 of 3 games
    AngleT.J. Hockenson over 35.5 rec yds (-109 DK); T.J. Hockenson over 15.5 longest catch (-110 DK).
  • Run inside, not outsideShakyDET allows 4.5 per carry between the guards (28th) but 3.6 outside the tackles (11th). Aaron Jones has 89% of the backs' carries lately (21 a game).
    • Aaron Jones: 54 carries here, 3.3 per carry, 33% successful (league 3.7, 40%)
    • Two big plays make it (35 yds wk 2 vs BUF, 25 wk 4 vs CAR); without them 3.7 (league 3.7)
    • Mostly one game: wk 2 vs BUF, 6.6 per carry on 17
    • DET allowed more than league average per carry in 3 of 5 games
    AngleAaron Jones over 38.5 rush yds (-114 FD); Aaron Jones over 10.5 carries (-101 DK). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
DET offense vs MIN defense
  • Beat the blitzMIN blitzes on 70.4% of dropbacks (1st-most); DET ranks 1st in EPA against the blitz.
    AngleJared Goff over 278.5 pass yds (-114 FD).
  • Tough sledding for Jahmyr GibbsSolidMIN ranks 1st vs the run (3.6 per carry).
    • Without DL Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins (wk 2): 3.7 per carry on 29 carries; with him 2.8 on 59; expected back
    • Jahmyr Gibbs: 105 carries here, 4.8 per carry, 50% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
    • MIN allowed less than league average per carry in 4 of 5 games
    • Sione Vaki: 15 carries here, 3.4 per carry, 33% successful (league 3.9, 39%)
    AngleJahmyr Gibbs under 97.5 rush yds (-114 DK).
  • Tough spot for Amon-Ra St. BrownSolidMIN ranks 3rd vs wide receivers (7.2 yds per target). He gets 29% of DET's targets.
    • Amon-Ra St. Brown on these targets: 57, 65% caught, 6.7 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
    • MIN allowed less than league average per target in 4 of 5 games
    • Last 2 games MIN allowed 5.1 per target; 8.2 before
    AngleAmon-Ra St. Brown under 78.5 rec yds (-110 DK); Amon-Ra St. Brown under 7.5 catches (-125 DK).
Motivation & storylines
  • StakesDivision game. MIN leads the NFC North by 1; MIN 5-0; DET 3-2, 2 back.
  • HistoryLast met 2025 wk 17: MIN 23-10 at MIN.
  • History2025 series: MIN swept DET (27-24 at DET, 10-23 at MIN).
  • RevengeMIN vs a former team: T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET 2019-22).
  • RevengeDET vs a former team: D.J. Wonnum (DE, MIN 2020-23); Joshua Dobbs (QB, MIN 2023).
  • SpotDET won 45-21 at ARI last week.
vs INDLast weekvs GB
vs BUFNext week@ MIA
–OFF plays last game–
–DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
541 mi6th1st0 mi
EPA rank · adjusted
28thOffense3rd
1stDefense30th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+2.5 MIN vs DET −2.5
third-down DEF1st26ththird-down OFF
run blocking*11th31strun DEF up front*
pass rush w/o blitz4th21stprotection vs no blitz
third-down OFF16th31stthird-down DEF
protection vs no blitz22nd6thpass rush w/o blitz
play-action DEF20th4thplay-action OFFPA rate 2nd
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
+2.5 MIN vs DET −2.5
MIN OFF vs DET DEF
OFF vs man*18th27thman coverage*man rate 16th
big-play OFF24th31stbig-play DEF
pass protection*19th8thpass rush*
early-down OFF32nd25thearly-down DEF
run OFF24th18thrun DEF
pass OFF28th30thpass DEF
OFF vs the blitz25th26thblitzing DEFblitz rate 17th
play-action OFFPA rate 4th22nd26thplay-action DEF
OFF vs zone*26th30thzone coverage*zone rate 17th
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 16th31st29thDEF vs 11 personnel*
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 26th25th21stDEF vs 12 personnel*
MIN DEF vs DET OFF
DEF vs 12 personnel*2nd11th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 5th
run DEF1st7thrun OFF
zone coverage*zone rate 2nd13th4thOFF vs zone*
pass DEF1st6thpass OFF
big-play DEF9th8thbig-play OFF
pass rush*2nd7thpass protection*
early-down DEF1st3rdearly-down OFF
run DEF up front*11th6thrun blocking*
blitzing DEFblitz rate 1st5th1stOFF vs the blitz
man coverage*man rate 31st5th4thOFF vs man*
DEF vs 11 personnel*1st3rd11-personnel OFF*11 rate 15th
Pace & tendencies
31.4s26thSeconds between snaps16th30.1s
63.023rdPlays per game7th68.4
-5.3%26thPass rate over expected16th-0.6%
6%13thNo-huddle rate14th6%
61%17thShotgun rate30th49%
54%21stMotion rate26th51%
30%4thPlay-action rate2nd32%
3.10s7thTime to throw*21st2.76s
60%16th11 personnel*15th60%
17%26th12 personnel*5th33%
70%1stDEF blitz rate17th30%
7%31stDEF man rate*16th20%
58.831stPlays faced per game1st74.2
MIN away 2 ATS trends · 1 🔥
DET home 2 ATS trends
Over / Under
4 trends

Run your own query on this matchup

Every other game this week: Week 8 2026 trends.

Gamble Responsibly. 21+ Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at your book before betting. College Football betting trends by week and game. * Stats marked with an asterisk (pressure, run blocking, man/zone coverage, time to throw, personnel): Sharp Football Analysis.