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New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
NE@MIA NE -8.5 · O/U 44.5
NE
Sunday 2026-11-01
4:25pm
CBS
82°F · wind 12 mph · 💧 30%
MIA
How to attack
NE offense vs MIA defense
  • Get the tight end involvedSolidMIA ranks 32nd vs tight ends in EPA per target: 92% caught, 9.5 yds per target, 76 per game. Best fits: Hunter Henry (19% of targets, 4 in the red zone) and Eli Raridon (13% of targets, 3 in the red zone).
    • Hunter Henry on these targets: 31, 84% caught, 9.5 yds each (league 72%, 7.0)
    • MIA allowed more than league average per target in 3 of 5 games
    • Last 2 games MIA allowed 7.4 per target; 12.4 before
    Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Hunter Henry (the data leans over).
  • Attack the short leftMixedMIA gives up 6.5 yds per target to the short left (30th, 42 targets). Rhamondre Stevenson has 14 targets there this season.
    • Rhamondre Stevenson on these targets: 14, 79% caught, 7.4 yds each (league 70%, 5.8)
    • Mostly one game: wk 2 vs SF, 9.3 yds per target on 7
    • MIA allowed more than league average per target in 3 of 5 games
    • Last 2 games MIA allowed 6.1 per target; 7.0 before
    Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Rhamondre Stevenson (the data leans over).
MIA offense vs NE defense
  • Throw to the wide receiversMixedNE ranks 26th vs wide receivers in EPA per target: 66% caught, 8.8 yds per target, 150 per game. Best fits: Malik Washington (30% of targets) and Kevin Coleman Jr. (22% of targets).
    • Malik Washington on these targets: 36, 64% caught, 7.3 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
    • Two big plays make it (58 yds wk 7 vs CHI, 51 wk 4 vs BUF); without them 8.0 (league 8.1)
    • NE allowed more than league average per target in 4 of 7 games
    • Last 2 games NE allowed 13.4 per target; 7.5 before
    AngleMalik Washington over 38.5 rec yds (-110 DK); Malik Washington over 3.5 catches (-144 DK).
  • Run outside, not insideShakyNE allows 4.5 per carry outside the tackles (27th) but 3.3 between the guards (8th). Ollie Gordon II has 67% of the backs' carries lately (15 a game).
    • Without CB Charles Woods (wk 3): 6.1 per carry on 13 carries; with him 4.1 on 56; expected back
    • Ollie Gordon II: 15 carries here, 6.2 per carry, 20% successful (league 4.5, 41%)
    • NE allowed more than league average per carry in 5 of 7 games
    • De'Von Achane: 10 carries here, 3.9 per carry, 30% successful (league 4.5, 41%)
    AngleOllie Gordon II over 52.5 rush yds (-114 FD); Ollie Gordon II over 13.5 carries (-131 DK). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
  • Blitz troubleNE blitzes on 35.2% of dropbacks (10th-most); MIA ranks 31st against the blitz.
    AngleMalik Willis under 183.5 pass yds (-114 FD); Malik Willis over 0.5 INTs (+102 DK).
Motivation & storylines
  • StakesDivision game. BUF leads the AFC East by 1.5; NE 4-3, 1.5 back; MIA 0-5, 4.5 back.
  • HistoryLast met 2025 wk 18: NE 38-10 at NE.
  • History2025 series: NE swept MIA (33-27 at MIA, 10-38 at NE).
  • SpotNE has 3 more days of rest.
L 24-30 @ CHILast week@ NYJ
vs GBNext weekvs DET
52OFF plays last game–
68DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
2,903 mi21st18th2,171 mi
EPA rank · adjusted
11thOffense27th
16thDefense28th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
−8.5 NE vs MIA +8.5
pass OFF2nd31stpass DEF
blitzing DEFblitz rate 10th7th31stOFF vs the blitz
third-down OFF9th30ththird-down DEF
OFF vs the blitz10th30thblitzing DEFblitz rate 20th
OFF vs zone*9th27thzone coverage*zone rate 13th
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 19th7th22ndDEF vs 11 personnel*
early-down DEF15th30thearly-down OFF
DEF vs 12 personnel*9th24th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 32nd
pass rush w/o blitz25th9thprotection vs no blitz
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
−8.5 NE vs MIA +8.5
NE OFF vs MIA DEF
early-down OFF15th29thearly-down DEF
protection vs no blitz8th20thpass rush w/o blitz
OFF vs man*12th22ndman coverage*man rate 20th
big-play OFF5th14thbig-play DEF
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 20th21st28thDEF vs 12 personnel*
play-action OFFPA rate 13th26th32ndplay-action DEF
pass protection*29th17thpass rush*
run OFF28th25thrun DEF
run blocking*19th16thrun DEF up front*
NE DEF vs MIA OFF
pass rush*14th28thpass protection*
man coverage*man rate 2nd3rd15thOFF vs man*
zone coverage*zone rate 31st19th28thOFF vs zone*
DEF vs 11 personnel*8th16th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 13th
run DEF13th20thrun OFF
pass DEF19th24thpass OFF
big-play DEF11th10thbig-play OFF
third-down DEF8th12ththird-down OFF
run DEF up front*10th7thrun blocking*
play-action DEF31st28thplay-action OFFPA rate 11th
Pace & tendencies
31.1s23rdSeconds between snaps31st32.4s
64.617thPlays per game31st58.4
+2.1%8thPass rate over expected31st-10.3%
0%31stNo-huddle rate28th2%
58%21stShotgun rate20th59%
54%22ndMotion rate2nd74%
23%13thPlay-action rate11th25%
3.19s2ndTime to throw*1st3.31s
60%19th11 personnel*13th61%
20%20th12 personnel*32nd8%
35%10thDEF blitz rate20th27%
38%2ndDEF man rate*20th18%
61.128thPlays faced per game30th60.8
NE away 2 ATS trends
MIA home 1 ATS trend
Over / Under
3 trends

Run your own query on this matchup

Every other game this week: Week 8 2026 trends.

Gamble Responsibly. 21+ Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at your book before betting. College Football betting trends by week and game. * Stats marked with an asterisk (pressure, run blocking, man/zone coverage, time to throw, personnel): Sharp Football Analysis.