Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings
Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
BUF@
MIN
BUF -2.5 · O/U 47.5
BUFMonday 2026-11-09
8:15pm
ESPN/ABC
Indoors
MINHow to attack
BUF offense vs MIN defense- Beat the blitzMIN blitzes on 71.4% of dropbacks (1st-most); BUF ranks 1st in EPA against the blitz.Angleno pass yds line posted yet for Josh Allen (the data leans over).
- Tough sledding for James CookSolidMIN ranks 2nd vs the run (3.8 per carry).
- James Cook: 117 carries here, 5.4 per carry, 50% successful (league 3.9, 40%)
- MIN allowed less than league average per carry in 4 of 6 games
- Ray Davis: 5 carries here, 2.4 per carry, 20% successful (league 3.9, 40%)
Angleno rush yds line posted yet for James Cook (the data leans under). - Protect the ballMIN has 10 takeaways (1st-most); BUF has 9 giveaways (8th-most per play).Angleno INTs line posted yet for Josh Allen (the data leans over).
MIN offense vs BUF defense- Get the tight end involvedSolidBUF ranks 25th vs tight ends in EPA per target: 68% caught, 8.2 yds per target, 78 per game. Best fits: T.J. Hockenson (18% of targets, 5 in the red zone).
- T.J. Hockenson on these targets: 32, 84% caught, 7.4 yds each (league 72%, 7.1)
- BUF allowed more than league average per target in 4 of 6 games
- Last 2 games BUF allowed 9.8 per target; 6.6 before
AngleT.J. Hockenson over 37.5 rec yds (-110 DK); T.J. Hockenson over 4.5 catches (+100 DK). - Throw to the wide receiversMixedBUF ranks 27th vs wide receivers in EPA per target: 64% caught, 8.1 yds per target, 174 per game. Best fits: Justin Jefferson (21% of targets).
- Without CB DeAundre Alford (wk 5): 6.0 yds per target on 32 targets; with him 9.1 on 75; expected back
- Justin Jefferson on these targets: 31, 74% caught, 9.7 yds each (league 62%, 8.1)
- Two big plays make it (44 yds wk 6 vs LV, 35 wk 1 vs HOU); without them 7.6 (league 8.1)
- BUF allowed more than league average per target in 4 of 6 games
AngleJustin Jefferson over 74.5 rec yds (-114 FD); Justin Jefferson over 5.5 catches (-128 DK). - Blitz troubleBUF blitzes on 35.2% of dropbacks (10th-most); MIN ranks 26th against the blitz.AngleKyler Murray under 216.5 pass yds (-114 FD).
Motivation & storylines
- StakesBUF 5-1, 1st in the AFC East (leads); MIN 6-0, 1st in the NFC North (leads).
- HistoryLast met 2022 wk 10: MIN 33-30 at BUF -- first meeting since 2022.
vs BALLast week@ DET
@ NYJNext week@ GB
–OFF plays last game–
–DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
736 mi4th5th1,083 mi
Exclude BUF weeks
Exclude MIN weeks
Stats from games played through week 7
EPA rank · adjusted
1stOffense29th
31stDefense1st
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
−2.5 BUF vs MIN +2.5
vs MIN +2.5pass rush w/o blitz11th27thprotection vs no blitz
play-action OFFPA rate 6th4th19thplay-action DEF
pass protection*24th1stpass rush*
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
−2.5 BUF vs MIN +2.5
vs MIN +2.5BUF OFF vs MIN DEF
run blocking*1st13thrun DEF up front*
OFF vs zone*3rd13thzone coverage*zone rate 2nd
pass OFF8th1stpass DEF
run OFF2nd1strun DEF
big-play OFF1st6thbig-play DEF
protection vs no blitz4th3rdpass rush w/o blitz
third-down OFF2nd2ndthird-down DEF
early-down OFF6th3rdearly-down DEF
OFF vs the blitz1st3rdblitzing DEFblitz rate 1st
OFF vs man*1st6thman coverage*man rate 31st
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 25th6th3rdDEF vs 11 personnel*
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 19th2nd2ndDEF vs 12 personnel*
BUF DEF vs MIN OFF
pass rush*12th21stpass protection*
zone coverage*zone rate 6th31st25thOFF vs zone*
pass DEF30th26thpass OFF
run DEF28th30thrun OFF
big-play DEF21st21stbig-play OFF
third-down DEF26th23rdthird-down OFF
early-down DEF31st32ndearly-down OFF
run DEF up front*8th12thrun blocking*
blitzing DEFblitz rate 10th28th26thOFF vs the blitz
play-action DEF28th23rdplay-action OFFPA rate 2nd
man coverage*man rate 27th15th19thOFF vs man*
DEF vs 11 personnel*30th32nd11-personnel OFF*11 rate 15th
DEF vs 12 personnel*29th27th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 25th
Pace & tendencies
30.6s19thSeconds between snaps25th31.3s
63.220thPlays per game24th62.0
-0.4%15thPass rate over expected26th-5.3%
4%20thNo-huddle rate14th6%
47%32ndShotgun rate18th60%
64%7thMotion rate21st55%
28%6thPlay-action rate2nd32%
3.16s3rdTime to throw*6th3.09s
49%25th11 personnel*15th59%
21%19th12 personnel*25th19%
35%10thDEF blitz rate1st71%
15%27thDEF man rate*31st7%
72.52ndPlays faced per game31st59.2
BUF
away
1 ATS trend · 1 🔥
BUF-2.5
ATSAllen as a road fav of 3 points or fewer
83.3%
win rate
10-2-1
record
+59.1%
roi
+3.6ppg
avg cover
🔥
WWLWPWLWWWWWW
last 10: 8-1-1 (88.9%) · avg cover +5.8 ppg
since 2003: 10-2-1 (83.3%) · avg cover +3.6 ppg
MIN
home
1 ATS trend
MIN+2.5
ATSMurray as a dog
65.4%
win rate
34-18-2
record
+24.8%
roi
+3.3ppg
avg cover
📈
WWLWLLWWWWLWLWWWWWWL
last 20: 14-6 (70.0%) · avg cover +3.6 ppg
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg cover +2.8 ppg
since 2003: 34-18-2 (65.4%) · avg cover +3.3 ppg
Over / Under
2 trends
Under 47.5
Under
Kyler Murray in primetime
69.2%
win rate
9-4
record
+32.2%
roi
+1.5ppg
avg under
📈
LWLWWLWWLWWWW
last 10: 8-2 (80.0%) · avg under +3.6 ppg
since 2003: 9-4 (69.2%) · avg under +1.5 ppg
Under 47.5
Under
Josh Allen on the road, in primetime
64.7%
win rate
11-6-1
record
+23.5%
roi
+2.9ppg
avg under
📈
WLPLLWWWWWLWWWLWWL
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg under +3.2 ppg
since 2003: 11-6-1 (64.7%) · avg under +2.9 ppg
- U.S. Bank Stadium
- Roof · dome
- Surface · turf
Run your own query on this matchup
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