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Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons

Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
CINvsATL CIN -3 · O/U 49.5
CIN
Sunday 2026-11-08
9:30am
NFL NET
Indoors
ATL
How to attack
CIN offense vs ATL defense
  • Protect Joe BurrowMixedCIN lets its QB get hit or sacked on 17.1% of dropbacks (6th-most); ATL gets there on 15.9% (9th-most). His EPA per dropback falls from +0.35 clean to -0.47 when hit.
    • Without LB Divine Deablo (wk 7): 7% of dropbacks on 42 dropbacks; with him 18% on 240; expected back
    • CIN's QB hit or sacked on 15% of dropbacks the last 2 games, 18% before
    • ATL above the league hit-and-sack rate in 5 of 7 games
    • Last 2 games ATL hit or sacked the QB on 11% of dropbacks; 18% before
    Angleno pass yds line posted yet for Joe Burrow (the data leans under).
  • Run inside, not outsideShakyATL allows 4.3 per carry between the guards (26th) but 3.8 outside the tackles (4th). Chase Brown has 57% of the backs' carries lately (11 a game).
    • Without LB Divine Deablo (wk 7): 5.8 per carry on 16 carries; with him 4.4 on 55; expected back
    • Chase Brown: 55 carries here, 3.9 per carry, 36% successful (league 3.7, 40%)
    • Two big plays make it (47 yds wk 5 vs BAL, 30 wk 7 vs SF); without them 3.6 (league 3.7)
    • Mostly one game: wk 5 vs BAL, 6.4 per carry on 18
    Angleno rush yds line posted yet for Chase Brown (the data leans over). Weak case: the read is Shaky.
ATL offense vs CIN defense
  • Quick game blunts the rushSolidMichael Penix Jr. is hit or sacked on only 11.0% of dropbacks (3rd-fewest), which takes the edge off CIN's rush (15.7%, 10th-most).
    • CIN above the league hit-and-sack rate in 5 of 6 games
    Angleno completions line posted yet for Michael Penix Jr. (the data leans over).
  • Attack the short leftSolidCIN gives up 7.8 yds per target to the short left (30th, 48 targets). Bijan Robinson has 18 targets there this season.
    • Bijan Robinson on these targets: 18, 89% caught, 5.4 yds each (league 70%, 5.8)
    • CIN allowed more than league average per target in 5 of 6 games
    Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Bijan Robinson (the data leans over).
Motivation & storylines
  • StakesCIN 4-2, 3rd in the AFC North (0.5 back); ATL 3-4, 2nd in the NFC South (0.5 back).
  • HistoryLast met 2022 wk 7: CIN 35-17 at CIN -- first meeting since 2022.
  • RevengeATL vs a former team: Jessie Bates III (S, CIN 2018-22).
  • SpotCIN won 35-13 at BAL last week.
vs TENLast week@ TB
vs PITNext weekvs KC
–OFF plays last game–
–DEF plays last game–
Miles flown, last 21 days
4,976 mi28th29th5,144 mi
Stats from games played through week 7
EPA rank · adjusted
6thOffense23rd
9thDefense7th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
−3 CIN vs ATL +3
12-personnel OFF*12 rate 2nd1st21stDEF vs 12 personnel*
third-down OFF1st19ththird-down DEF
protection vs no blitz29th9thpass rush w/o blitz
big-play DEF32nd12thbig-play OFF
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
−3 CIN vs ATL +3
CIN OFF vs ATL DEF
play-action OFFPA rate 30th19th27thplay-action DEF
OFF vs man*8th14thman coverage*man rate 12th
OFF vs the blitz13th7thblitzing DEFblitz rate 27th
pass OFF4th7thpass DEF
run OFF13th12thrun DEF
big-play OFF9th7thbig-play DEF
pass protection*4th2ndpass rush*
early-down OFF5th6thearly-down DEF
run blocking*16th18thrun DEF up front*
OFF vs zone*15th10thzone coverage*zone rate 21st
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 27th10th10thDEF vs 11 personnel*
CIN DEF vs ATL OFF
run DEF up front*15th29thrun blocking*
zone coverage*zone rate 27th14th24thOFF vs zone*
blitzing DEFblitz rate 32nd6th15thOFF vs the blitz
DEF vs 11 personnel*19th26th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 22nd
man coverage*man rate 6th22nd28thOFF vs man*
third-down DEF27th15ththird-down OFF
pass DEF21st24thpass OFF
run DEF7th5thrun OFF
pass rush*6th5thpass protection*
pass rush w/o blitz7th5thprotection vs no blitz
early-down DEF9th13thearly-down OFF
play-action DEF11th14thplay-action OFFPA rate 17th
DEF vs 12 personnel*22nd17th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 8th
Pace & tendencies
30.9s21stSeconds between snaps31st32.5s
61.726thPlays per game23rd62.1
+6.5%2ndPass rate over expected30th-9.1%
5%17thNo-huddle rate22nd4%
75%2ndShotgun rate27th54%
52%26thMotion rate16th58%
17%30thPlay-action rate17th22%
2.60s29thTime to throw*31st2.54s
46%27th11 personnel*22nd55%
47%2nd12 personnel*8th32%
17%32ndDEF blitz rate27th25%
31%6thDEF man rate*12th24%
64.219thPlays faced per game5th69.4
CIN 1 ATS trend
ATL 1 ATS trend
Over / Under
1 trend

Run your own query on this matchup

Every other game this week: Week 9 2026 trends.

Gamble Responsibly. 21+ Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at your book before betting. College Football betting trends by week and game. * Stats marked with an asterisk (pressure, run blocking, man/zone coverage, time to throw, personnel): Sharp Football Analysis.