Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints
Records, streaks and rest for this week are calculated from games played so far, so they will be out of date until the weeks before it are played.
CLE@
NO
NO -2.5 · O/U 42.5
CLESunday 2026-11-08
1:00pm
CBS
Indoors
NOHow to attack
CLE offense vs NO defense- Run the ballShakyNO ranks 32nd vs the run (4.7 per carry). Quinshon Judkins has 47% of the backs' carries lately (10 a game).
- Without DE Carl Granderson (wk 4): 6.3 per carry on 33 carries; with him 4.3 on 150; expected back
- Quinshon Judkins: 90 carries here, 3.5 per carry, 31% successful (league 3.9, 40%)
- NO allowed more than league average per carry in 5 of 7 games
- Jaleel McLaughlin: 11 carries here, 6.5 per carry, 55% successful (league 3.9, 40%)
Angleno rush yds line posted yet for Quinshon Judkins (the data leans over). Weak case: the read is Shaky. - Get the tight end involvedShakyNO ranks 28th vs tight ends in EPA per target: 73% caught, 7.7 yds per target, 68 per game. Best fits: Harold Fannin Jr. (20% of targets).
- Without LB Danny Stutsman (wk 7): 4.8 yds per target on 5 targets; with him 8.8 on 40; expected back
- Harold Fannin Jr. on these targets: 39, 64% caught, 6.6 yds each (league 72%, 7.1)
- Two big plays make it (28 yds wk 4 vs ATL, 24 wk 6 vs NYG); without them 7.1 (league 7.1)
- NO allowed more than league average per target in 3 of 7 games
Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Harold Fannin Jr. (the data leans over). Weak case: the read is Shaky. - Attack the deep leftSolidNO gives up 18.2 yds per target to the deep left (32nd, 17 targets). Denzel Boston has 7 targets there this season.
- Denzel Boston on these targets: 7, 29% caught, 12.7 yds each (league 40%, 10.9)
- Mostly one game: wk 6 vs NYG, 32.3 yds per target on 3
- NO allowed more than league average per target in 3 of 4 games
- Last 2 games NO allowed 24.7 per target; 12.4 before
Angleno rec yds line posted yet for Denzel Boston (the data leans over).
Motivation & storylines
- StakesCLE 5-2, 2nd in the AFC North; NO 2-5, 3rd in the NFC South (1.5 back).
- HistoryLast met 2024 wk 11: NO 35-14 at NO -- first meeting since 2024.
- SpotNO off a bye.
@ PITLast weekBye
vs HOUNext weekvs CAR
–OFF plays last game57
–DEF plays last game62
Miles flown, last 21 days
2,072 mi13th30th9,588 mi
Exclude CLE weeks
Exclude NO weeks
Stats from games played through week 7
EPA rank · adjusted
25thOffense24th
10thDefense26th
Schedule-adjusted matchup edges
+2.5 CLE vs NO −2.5
vs NO −2.512-personnel OFF*12 rate 29th9th31stDEF vs 12 personnel*
run DEF up front*11th31strun blocking*
early-down DEF7th26thearly-down OFF
early-down OFF14th32ndearly-down DEF
travel2,072 mi, 21 days13th30thtravel9,588 mi, 21 days
play-action OFFPA rate 27th26th7thplay-action DEF
More schedule-adjusted matchup stats
Every matchup area, ranked 1-32, adjusted for opponents. Coloured when the two ranks are more than 5 apart. Pace & tendencies are plain. * Sharp Football Analysis.
+2.5 CLE vs NO −2.5
vs NO −2.5CLE OFF vs NO DEF
11-personnel OFF*11 rate 4th15th28thDEF vs 11 personnel*
run OFF23rd32ndrun DEF
pass OFF19th25thpass DEF
OFF vs zone*11th17thzone coverage*zone rate 12th
protection vs no blitz32nd25thpass rush w/o blitz
big-play OFF24th24thbig-play DEF
pass protection*31st27thpass rush*
third-down OFF31st30ththird-down DEF
run blocking*25th26thrun DEF up front*
OFF vs the blitz21st20thblitzing DEFblitz rate 11th
OFF vs man*27th32ndman coverage*man rate 21st
CLE DEF vs NO OFF
pass DEF6th18thpass OFF
run DEF16th28thrun OFF
DEF vs 11 personnel*7th19th11-personnel OFF*11 rate 5th
pass rush*5th16thpass protection*
zone coverage*zone rate 32nd11th20thOFF vs zone*
blitzing DEFblitz rate 28th12th20thOFF vs the blitz
big-play DEF26th29thbig-play OFF
pass rush w/o blitz14th10thprotection vs no blitz
third-down DEF10th8ththird-down OFF
play-action DEF2nd7thplay-action OFFPA rate 32nd
man coverage*man rate 1st16th13thOFF vs man*
DEF vs 12 personnel*19th16th12-personnel OFF*12 rate 26th
Pace & tendencies
29.8s13thSeconds between snaps5th29.1s
62.721stPlays per game7th68.1
-0.8%17thPass rate over expected11th+0.3%
3%25thNo-huddle rate3rd14%
77%1stShotgun rate7th69%
54%23rdMotion rate11th62%
18%27thPlay-action rate32nd15%
3.06s8thTime to throw*25th2.70s
73%4th11 personnel*5th69%
14%29th12 personnel*26th18%
24%28thDEF blitz rate11th34%
49%1stDEF man rate*21st18%
64.917thPlays faced per game15th65.4
CLE
away
2 ATS trends
CLE+2.5
ATSfadeFading home teams, off a loss, on 4,500+ miles of travel in three weeks
56.4%
win rate
243-188-10
record
+7.6%
roi
+0.7ppg
avg cover
📈
WLLLLWWLWLPWWWWLWWWW
last 20: 12-7-1 (63.2%) · avg cover +3.0 ppg
last 10: 8-1-1 (88.9%) · avg cover +8.0 ppg
since 2003: 243-188-10 (56.4%) · avg cover +0.7 ppg
CLE+2.5
ATSfadeFading Moore at home
72.7%
win rate
8-3
record
+38.8%
roi
+4.1ppg
avg cover
📈
WWLWWWLLWWW
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg cover +4.5 ppg
since 2003: 8-3 (72.7%) · avg cover +4.1 ppg
NO
home
1 ATS trend
NO-2.5
ATSfadeFading dogs of 3 points or fewer, against a team off a bye, indoors
63.9%
win rate
23-13-1
record
+22.0%
roi
+1.0ppg
avg cover
📈
LLWWWWWWWWWWWLWLLWLL
last 20: 13-7 (65.0%) · avg cover -0.9 ppg
last 10: 5-5 (50.0%) · avg cover -1.9 ppg
since 2003: 23-13-1 (63.9%) · avg cover +1.0 ppg
Over / Under
2 trends
Under 42.5
Under
Kellen Moore at home
72.7%
win rate
8-3
record
+38.8%
roi
+1.0ppg
avg under
📈
WLWWWWWWLLW
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg under +0.0 ppg
since 2003: 8-3 (72.7%) · avg under +1.0 ppg
Under 42.5
Under
Tyler Shough indoors
70.0%
win rate
7-3
record
+33.6%
roi
-0.4ppg
avg under
📈
WWWWWLLLWW
last 10: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg under -0.4 ppg
since 2003: 7-3 (70.0%) · avg under -0.4 ppg
- Caesars Superdome
- Roof · dome
- Surface · turf
Run your own query on this matchup
Every other game this week: Week 9 2026 trends.
Gamble Responsibly. 21+
Historical trends, not predictions. Records are graded against the
closing line at −110 assumed juice. Confirm every number and price at
your book before betting.
College Football
betting trends by week and game.